U.S. Dollar Rally.

T

tolly_67

Well-Known Member
Get ready for the event that couldn't possibly happen. The biggest dollar rally.....ever....stay tuned.
No need to comment. No need to disagree. Standby and witness.
The pudding is cooked.
 
Eh?

I smell somethin but I don't think it's puddin.
 
You'd gain much more credibility if you gave your opinion some reasoning and were later found to be right.

This way even if it does happen you're still only going to look like it was a lucky guess.

I'm certainly interested in your reasoning. :)
 
tolly_67 said:
Get ready for the event that couldn't possibly happen. The biggest dollar rally.....ever....stay tuned.
No need to comment. No need to disagree. Standby and witness.
The pudding is cooked.
Click to expand...

I don't get who would buy a currency that they are still printing at an astronomical rate.
 
I read an interesting article many years ago that said something along the lines of People will pour massive amounts of money into the US dollar believing it is the only safe haven left, followed soon after by a massive collapse in the Bond Markets, wish I could find the article as it was a good read.
 
I guess precious metals have taken a massive hit against all logic.....

Clearly there are greater forces than logic in operation here, maybe anything is possible.
 
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Last time it was moving up over 100 (98-2002) gold was doing very well indeed
 
There is precious few places for such enormous quantities of money to retreat to in times of crisis that will provide a return.
The yen is toast, the euro will have to be reconsidered in a few years so it is also toast, most sovereign bonds in the world are not worth a cracker, municipal bonds are just as bad.
No safety in bonds or large currencies.
Only a few choices....U.S. dollar or the stockmarket.....the unlikely is likely to happen....rising u.s dollar and rising stockmarket...
Understand that when it is time for the u.s. dollar to be toast...then there will be an enormous rush into the stockmarket and tangible assets, oil copper gold wheat etc etc.
This is when the trouble begins....we are on the verge of stagflation.....runaway inflation with a stagnant economy
All that silver you save may be required to make ends meet if any of us are made part of a rising unemployment rate.
 
dagsgarrett said:
I read an interesting article many years ago that said something along the lines of People will pour massive amounts of money into the US dollar believing it is the only safe haven left, followed soon after by a massive collapse in the Bond Markets, wish I could find the article as it was a good read.
Click to expand...

Read the same article Dags, was a ripper, basically said investors will rush to the US $, gold will plunge, and soon after the US economy collapses as investors rush back to commodity's as they wake up to the devalued $.
 
Commodities prices are enormously influenced by the futures market, is that not a fair statement? This includes precious metals, right. The dollar's value is set at the forex, correct? The forex is basically a speculators card game in which each player decides, based on risk factors, which suit should be abandoned or valued. Eventually, the suit that holds the most risk will have the least value.

The U.S. dollar may in fact surge but for how long depends on the speculator's sentiment toward the dollar, I think.

If I'm wrong on this, please help me understand where.
 
It is far from a card game unfortunately. Some rise can be expected from speculation but it will be a genuine demand for the dollar that will push it way, way up. The euro is poorly thought out currency that will fail in part. Exporting oil countries for example could baulk at settlement in other currencies other than u.s. dollar so a real demand sets in. These dollars are going to have to be obtained which creates the demand and the rise. Add to this the depreciating effect the Japanese government is forcing on the Yen. Great for Japanes exporters but bad for anyone holding the currency for any length of time. If you had yen for the last 6 months you would have copped a 20% decrease in your purchasing power in America. It would make sense to hold the currency that has strength and is in fact appreciating. As faith in the euro falls and the Japanese embark on devaluation. the Dollar will reign supreme.....for a period.....and as it skyrockets, it will become self propelled as everyone will want to be in on the game that they had written off.....that is the greed coming in to play.....but eventually....it will be the time for the u.s. bond and dollar smash.....all in time
 
tolly_67 said:
It is far from a card game unfortunately. Some rise can be expected from speculation but it will be a genuine demand for the dollar that will push it way, way up. The euro is poorly thought out currency that will fail in part. Exporting oil countries for example could baulk at settlement in other currencies other than u.s. dollar so a real demand sets in. These dollars are going to have to be obtained which creates the demand and the rise. Add to this the depreciating effect the Japanese government is forcing on the Yen. Great for Japanes exporters but bad for anyone holding the currency for any length of time. If you had yen for the last 6 months you would have copped a 20% decrease in your purchasing power in America. It would make sense to hold the currency that has strength and is in fact appreciating. As faith in the euro falls and the Japanese embark on devaluation. the Dollar will reign supreme.....for a period.....and as it skyrockets, it will become self propelled as everyone will want to be in on the game that they had written off.....that is the greed coming in to play.....but eventually....it will be the time for the u.s. bond and dollar smash.....all in time
Click to expand...


What you are describing sounds like the dollar bubble....am I reading your words right? Seems like you are asserting that in the short term, dollar is getting stronger...good to buy bonds. In the long term, dollar will seriously weaken and get good advice would be to get out of bonds before that happens?

If that's true, and if dollar is gaining strength, is it likely that PM's will drop further in price because added investment potential in $ and weak sentiment in PM's are in play? Price in gold / silver drops = good time to invest in physical. High investment volume = shortage of physical supply? Supply & demand creates high premiums but also favor in the eyes of speculators and paper investors? This counters / offsets the losses on spot price and in fact spot goes up? Add some freak mine disaster, manipulation by big players, and what we are left with is.....
 
The corellation between u.s. dollar and gold price is at best shakey....gold could fall and rise with a rising u.s. dollar.

There is not a lot of confidence in gold at the moment and it is possible that there is still some significant downside to the price. The truth is that gold does not pay a dividend and for the last few years it has been a capital loss. This tsunami of money sloshing around the world is not yet ready to find its home in such a small market as precious metals when the u.s. stockmarket is roaring and providing ample capital gain. The gains in the market are far from parabolic which is reassuring to a lot of investors. I would not be suprised to see 1150 gold and I would then be a buyer once again. Silver could be as low as 16 by that stage ( at a guess ).

The game will change of course. You simply have to relate the feeling for the u.s. dollar recently ( remember is was supposed to be crushed...even the best said it would be...) Well it didn't and it won't be for a few years. But it is this extreme of negative feeling that must be universally felt for gold that I am looking for because it is the best indication that the bottom has been reached.
 
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