Trade Wars

mmm....shiney! said:
Tariffs are a big deal even if they don't lead to geopolitical conflict. The only way that spending adjusts when tariffs are imposed is that consumer wealth is destroyed as they either have to pay higher prices or forgo satisfying their needs and wants. Either outcome is not good.

What do you mean by the "supply chain I will be realigned"?
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This is my take on what is happening. Trump wants globalists to establish an alternative source from other countries. For example, Apple should manufacture iPhones in Mexico or Thailand. The same reason as to why Trump wants to impose tariffs on uranium imports which currently comes from russia and kazhaistan. To reduce risk of disruptIon on the global supply chain in the event of a geopolitical event.
 
what Trump is trying to do is to get sufficient support in the midterm, he is pushing for lower oil price...considering he is asking consumers to stop buying from Iran and putting a lot of pressure on other consumer like Japan to stop buying...the oil price is going up. but he is trying to get Opec to increase supply, not likely anyway...

Mexico was the preferred place of manufacture, last time all Motorola modem was made there, not anymore for the last 10 odd years
same may apply with Thailand as well...

Remember Uranium One, that one sold by Hillary to Putin... https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...-dozen-secret-memos-involving-clintons-russia
there are major producer around, eg Oz, Canada, Kazakstan Russia SA, etc
The US does not really care, they have last build a reactor since we can remember ever when ???... they can get Japan to ship over the plutonium stock pile anyway... if the Russian decommission war heads are used up.
 
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alor said:
what Trump is trying to do is to get sufficient support in the midterm, he is pushing for lower oil price....
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Agree on this.

alor said:
considering he is asking consumers to stop buying from Iran and putting a lot of pressure on other consumer like Japan to stop buying...the oil price is going up. but he is trying to get Opec to increase supply, not likely anyway...
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On Iran, it appears that he is giving into the demands of the neocons.

alor said:
Mexico was the preferred place of manufacture, last time all Motorola modem was made there, not anymore for the last 10 odd years
same may apply with Thailand as well...
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Not sure about this, but Thailand is currently booming. The Baht has even appreciated against USD since the beginning of the year. In comparison, both SGD and RMB has fallen.

Manufacturing is already highly automated and will become fully automated in the future so it doesn't matter so much where you make the stuff. Proxmity to the market will be even more important as transportation cost rise while the labour component falls.
 
sgbuyer said:
This is my take on what is happening. Trump wants globalists to establish an alternative source from other countries.
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You've lost me there, I don't know who globalists are.

My take is he's just another politician seeking to get re-elected. And a numbnut one at that. Granted he's better than what the Democrats and GOP establishment have to offer as an alternative, but a numbnut nonetheless.
 
I like the idea; Everything You Know is Wrong https://southfront.org/trade-war-iii/

ChinaTradeWar-8.jpg
 
The president is trying to appeal to his constituency through the next election cycle. It's a gamble though as consumer prices in the US are staring to nudge up already as material costs increase. Right now it seems to be mostly at the manufacturer/distributor level. But as retail stock levels decrease things will get passed to the consumer
 
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-11/29/c_137638063.htm

"We are not aiming to move away from the dollar, the dollar runs away from us," Putin said at an annual investment forum "Russia Calling".

Many countries including Russia are forced to look for alternatives to dollar settlements, he said.

Putin cited as an example Russia's trade with the Eurasian Economic Union, in which 70 percent of Russian exports and 30 percent of imports were conducted in Russian rubles.

The recent deal to supply S-400 air defense systems to Turkey was also made without using U.S. dollars, Putin said. Moscow provided Ankara with a ruble loan for the purpose, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said.

Russia was also working with its major trade partners to create a system independent from the SWIFT global interbank payments system for transmitting information and making payments.

"We will keep doing this, but we do not want to take any abrupt steps, which would harm us," Putin said.
 
Trump not going to give in. Will Xi give in? If not, full blown trade war by Q1 2019.
 
Apple is actually a global company owned by wealthy people around the world. What happens to Apple doesn’t affect 99.999% of Americans. On the other hand, millions of Chinese depend on Apple for their job.

Who are you fighting?
 
its kind of funny, since the product is banned, at least some people need not sell their kidney to buy the phone
they can sell their ears for a cheaper phone or sell their some skin for that cheaper products
 
alor said:
its kind of funny, since the product is banned, at least some people need not sell their kidney to buy the phone
they can sell their ears for a cheaper phone or sell their some skin for that cheaper products
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At least it was their body they sold.... Better than being murdered for an iphone
 
Assembly work like iPhones with that kind of scale should be completely done by robots. I’m quite amazed why it hasn’t been done so. Maybe Cooks should seek the advice of Elon Musk.
 
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