Trade Wars

mmm....shiney! said:
Because the world has been moving away from them.

Now Trump's brainfart threatens the prosperity of all. It is a big deal because it is a massive step backwards compared to what's been happening over the past decade or so. He's basically undoing all the good work he did in 2017, but we knew he was always going to be erratic.
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You may have missed the submarine fleet under the aircraft carries and fregates.

Central banks all over the world heftily increased the degree they cooperate with eachother.
Central banks existence reason is to act against speculators, that may dump their currencies for other products including other currencies. Those speculators includes you and me on this precious metals forum.
Now, take a look at their submarine warfare:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/explainers/tell-me-more/html/currency_swap_lines.en.html
In 2011 the ECB, along with the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank, set up a network of swap lines enabling the participating central banks to obtain currency from each other. As of December 2015, the swap lines have only been used to lend US dollars and Swiss francs to euro area banks.

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the ECB also set up arrangements to provide euro to the central banks of Denmark, Latvia, Hungary, Poland and Sweden.

More recently, in 2013 the ECB established a currency swap agreement with China, reflecting the country’s growing systemic importance and the rapid growth of trade and investment between the euro area and China. For the Eurosystem, the agreement serves as a liquidity backstop to reassure euro area banks that Chinese renminbi will continue to be available even if the market becomes impaired.
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https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/activities/intco/html/index.en.html?skey=swap
27/09/2016 ECB and People's Bank of China extend bilateral currency swap arrangement
26/11/2015 ECB and the People's Bank of China successfully test bilateral currency swap arrangement
16/09/2013 ECB extends the swap facility with the Bank of England
17/12/2010 ECB signs swap facility agreement with the Bank of England
06/04/2009 Central banks announce expanded swap arrangements
13/09/2001 Swap agreement with the Federal Reserve
https://www.rt.com/business/408305-russia-china-currency-swap/
Russia & China to extend currency swap agreement to lessen dollar dependence
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https://sputniknews.com/business/201701231049921157-egypt-currency-swap-russia/

The Egyptian government considers signing a currency swap agreement with Russia that will help relieve pressure on economy,
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Last year, central banks of Egypt and China signed an agreement under which direct national currency swaps can be conducted
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https://www.dailysabah.com/economy/...ove-to-use-national-currency-in-foreign-trade
Turkey, China realize first currency swap transaction in a move to use national currency in foreign trade
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...lion-lifeline-swaps-cash-for-world-wide-clout
China's $500 Billion Lifeline Swaps Cash for World-Wide Clout
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All these central banks now support eachother, and even when they officially declare as motivation more dependency on currency A to have less dependency on currency B, if they can get B indirectly along a middleman (see Fed - ECB - China), then that declaration is just a scam.
I came across a good example of these middlemen strategies: Greeces banks were bailed out by 2 German banks (Germany = ECB home base), but actually used FED loans to do so. Media then touts Germany bails out Greece, but actually Fed bailed out Greece.
The IMF is also such a middleman.

Now, why these currency / fx swaps between central banks?
They could just buy the currency they need on their local market.
But if speculators drove a currencies price higher, it would cost them more.
So, central banks set up intra-currency swap lines.
To bypass local markets. To bypass speculators.
So the speculators miss that demand on their supply/demand, and lose.

This, is effectively a trade war. Between governments and speculators.
I rather prefer trade wars between governments, that's competition at work for them, and the least crap government "wins" haha.
So actually, things got much worser the past decade.
 
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Russia to treat further US sanctions as an open declaration of economic war – PM

https://www.rt.com/news/435595-sanc...notifications&utm_campaign=push_notifications

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has warned the US that any sanctions targeting Russian banking operations and currency trade will be treated as a declaration of economic war and retaliated against by any means necessary.
“If they introduce something like a ban on banking operations or the use of any currency, we will treat it as a declaration of economic war. And we’ll have to respond to it accordingly – economically, politically, or in any other way, if required,” Medvedev said during a trip to the Kamchatka region.

"Our American friends should make no mistake about it,” he emphasized.

 
alor said:
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has warned the US that any sanctions targeting Russian banking operations and currency trade will be treated as a declaration of economic war and retaliated against by any means necessary.
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Plenty of ink has been spilled lionizing Russian's cyberwarfare capabilities, but I'd be wary of US retaliation when the kid gloves come off.

If some 'mysteriously improbable computer malfunction' takes out the electrical grid on the US Eastern seaboard, you shouldn't want to be anywhere near St. Petersburg, Smolensk or Kursk the week afterwards.

All three cities host multiple Type RBMK-1000 nuclear reactors, the same 2nd Gen design that was used in Chernobyl.

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In the late 1990s pre-Putin, US aid paid for a modernization/safety program of the RBMK fleet, one of the anti-proliferation measures that went with the "Megatons-to-Megawatts" program.

Who knows if they left any surprises behind?

There may even be a few Allen-Bradley/Rockwell PLCs running critical systems in these old-school light-water reactors with their positive void coefficients.
 
alor said:
World Markets Roiled As Turkey Currency Crisis Goes Global
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The Turkish Lira has been depreciating against the Euro since Erdogan's pseudo-counter-coup in 2016,.

The EURTRY rate on Aug 10th 2016 was 4.17 Lira per Euro, it is now 7.46 Lira per Euro.

Erdogan is going on TV and asking Turks to sell their Gold, US Dollars and Euros and convert them into Lira.

DkPVYXzX4AExj0E.jpg


As you can imagine, almost nobody is listening. Turks are exchanging their Lira for anything of value as fast as they can.

If this isn't a gorgeous display of Gresham's Law at work, I don't know what is.
 
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