TONIGHT is THE NIGHT

[jnkmbx]

Is it just me or is there a lot more hostility on the interwebs in recent weeks. It seems quite a few of the forums i visit seem to be getting more conflict/rudeness/general bitchiness.. Is there something in the wind?? People getting frustrated?

Chances are it's just cos stella posted. O_O
I reckon that if someone else made this thread we wouldn't get this outcome.

Otherwise I think everything else is ok around here, except the RE forum which is a ticking time bomb

 

[typhoon]

[The talks of Qe3,4,5,6... lol do you really think the US govt will do it? Too much of it is counterproductive and Bernanke knows it. He is not as dumb as u may think.]


He's done a pretty convincing job on me!

The Bernanke will do exactly what the banks tell him he has to do, and the banks will do whatever is in their best interests. Bernanke is nothing more than a poor bastard is holding a candle lighten at both ends. Its going to be a very interesting 12 months.

 

[dccpa]

Anyhow........................ Back to the original thread.



Silver dropped 4% 24 hours after the post. Gut feeling was 24 hours out. Still hope in the chart if 36 holds but its not looking all that crash hot. 36 needs to hold for silver to remain neutral at best imo. A daily close under 36 means a retest of the low 30's is likely imo.... some 15-20% lower than current prices.

I am confused now. I thought silver was in the $36.xx dollar range when you made the call? It rose up and then retraced back, plus a little more.

 

[goldpanner]

Hi - thanks for the post on hedging -

Just a quick question - what do you think the realistic price of silver and gold should be today (without any manipulation)? Is gold overpriced and silver underpriced? Do you think we will ever get back to the 15 - 1 ratio?

 

[dccpa]

He's (Bernanke) already said the Fed will continue to pursue it's policies of trying to increase the supply of money.

But through existing stock maturity, not through additional purchases. at least, thats the story so far.

They are borrowing cash from govt pension plans etc, to save up cash for the end of QE2.

 

[LovingtheSilver]

He's (Bernanke) already said the Fed will continue to pursue it's policies of trying to increase the supply of money.

But through existing stock maturity, not through additional purchases. at least, thats the story so far.

They are borrowing cash from govt pension plans etc, to save up cash for the end of QE2.

I think that money gives enough funds to last until late August, don't know where they'll get cash from after that. Also, didn't the Fed buy up a huge percentage of bonds about 8 months ago, kind of a way to 'control' reaction of the bond market to their (Fed's) actions?

 

[thatguy]

Decent downturn in the charts any comments? Is this what you were looking for stellaconcept? Any chance of it touching the 200mda? That is what I am looking at

 

[dccpa]

But through existing stock maturity, not through additional purchases. at least, thats the story so far.

They are borrowing cash from govt pension plans etc, to save up cash for the end of QE2.

I think that money gives enough funds to last until late August, don't know where they'll get cash from after that. Also, didn't the Fed buy up a huge percentage of bonds about 8 months ago, kind of a way to 'control' reaction of the bond market to their (Fed's) actions?

I have seen a lot of percentages for how much the bond market the Fed is now. Generally, they run in the 70-85% range and those purchases are ongoing. Any US Bonds that mature will have to be rolled over or that would lead to a contraction in credit. My worry is whether Bernanke will stop propping up the stock market in order to give the USD & US Bonds a quick fix. Also, by stopping QE, he will appease some of his critics. The trade off is that a lower stock market will erase the "wealth effect" the US administration is counting on to boost spending. I am already seeing some headlines like "stocks erase entire gain for 2011." That kind of publicity cannot make the US administration happy.

So, will Bernanke pull market support and make cash temporary king. Cue Benjamind to enter here. Or will he continue to prop up the stock market. Since Bernanke doesn't appear to be sure of what he is doing, it is very hard to anticipate what his next move will be. Personally, I have raised some cash, but I am mostly invested. If Bernanke lets the US stock market drop more than 10%, I will move to a lot more cash. Since we are near the 7% drop area, I would expect the market to turn around soon if Bernanke is going to continue to prop it up this summer. My current bet is that he continues to prop up the US stock market. But we shall see.

 

[Guest]

They are borrowing cash from govt pension plans etc, to save up cash for the end of QE2.

I think that money gives enough funds to last until late August, don't know where they'll get cash from after that. Also, didn't the Fed buy up a huge percentage of bonds about 8 months ago, kind of a way to 'control' reaction of the bond market to their (Fed's) actions?

I have seen a lot of percentages for how much the bond market the Fed is now. Generally, they run in the 70-85% range and those purchases are ongoing. Any US Bonds that mature will have to be rolled over or that would lead to a contraction in credit. My worry is whether Bernanke will stop propping up the stock market in order to give the USD & US Bonds a quick fix. Also, by stopping QE, he will appease some of his critics. The trade off is that a lower stock market will erase the "wealth effect" the US administration is counting on to boost spending. I am already seeing some headlines like "stocks erase entire gain for 2011." That kind of publicity cannot make the US administration happy.

So, will Bernanke pull market support and make cash temporary king. Cue Benjamind to enter here. Or will he continue to prop up the stock market. Since Bernanke doesn't appear to be sure of what he is doing, it is very hard to anticipate what his next move will be. Personally, I have raised some cash, but I am mostly invested. If Bernanke lets the US stock market drop more than 10%, I will move to a lot more cash. Since we are near the 7% drop area, I would expect the market to turn around soon if Bernanke is going to continue to prop it up this summer. My current bet is that he continues to prop up the US stock market. But we shall see.

Good luck with the cash and investments , I think the U.S $'s Goose was popped in the oven a few months back with Brenton woods II and Soros and friends. Theres an old saying down here "You've got Two chances, Buckley's and fuck all . " Just a matter of time till that goose is cooked and it's been in the oven for a while now mate.

 

[THUCYDIDES79]

Will he constantly prop ?!
If he stops, - and money supply CONTRACTS, is Banking & Government going to be able to continue with the Control and the Milking?!

...

There should be a day in the future where in one moment the clothes will finally fall.

 

[dccpa]

Southerncross, I don't have a lot of fiat, but I do have a lot of physical pms. However, if you study previous market cycles, you will see that a lot of pm stocks outperform the physical metals over the pm bull market. So, I have also invested heavily in pm stocks. I was fortunate to purchase Goro at 3.45 and First Majestic mostly at 5.15. My physical pms are investments and insurance. Fiat and pm stocks are only investments and are to be dumped if I believe they are going significantly lower in the short term. Unfortunately, the pm stocks started going down about two weeks before silver topped. So, even though I believed silver had gotten ahead of itself in the high 40s, I did not sell the stocks. It would not have been worth the income tax consequences. But if Bernanke allows the market to drop 10%, I will presume the game has changed and exit more positions. Pm stocks get hammered when the market drops and there is no need to suffer large losses that would be guaranteed in that situation.

 

[Guest]

Southerncross, I don't have a lot of fiat, but I do have a lot of physical pms. However, if you study previous market cycles, you will see that a lot of pm stocks outperform the physical metals over the pm bull market. So, I have also invested heavily in pm stocks. I was fortunate to purchase Goro at 3.45 and First Majestic mostly at 5.15. My physical pms are investments and insurance. Fiat and pm stocks are only investments and are to be dumped if I believe they are going significantly lower in the short term. Unfortunately, the pm stocks started going down about two weeks before silver topped. So, even though I believed silver had gotten ahead of itself in the high 40s, I did not sell the stocks. It would not have been worth the income tax consequences. But if Bernanke allows the market to drop 10%, I will presume the game has changed and exit more positions. Pm stocks get hammered when the market drops and there is no need to suffer large losses that would be guaranteed in that situation.

I am the last person you would want to be taking advice from M8 , But for my grams worth for what it's worth previous market cycles may not factor in the slow but inevitable death of the U.S$ as a the global currency , Paper is paper and in the end , it's just paper.

 

[dccpa]

I am the last person you would want to be taking advice from M8 , But for my grams worth for what it's worth previous market cycles may not factor in the slow but inevitable death of the U.S$ as a the global currency , Paper is paper and in the end , it's just paper.

I actually believe the shares will do much better this time because of worldwide participation. The price in USDs is irrelevant for this pm bull market. I was presenting the historical perspective to show just how much the miners appreciate in the late stages of a pm bull market. It is kind of like a map making company during the later part of the tech stock boom. The CEO got the bright idea to change the name of the company to geography.com(SP?). The stock proceeded to quadruple in price. I expect unrealistic, insane valuations of the pm miners at the end of the bull market.