Time to cut your losses & switch to gold ?

[Photonaware]

Many thanks for all your lively inputs.
Very interesting to see frequent reference to the GSR.

mmm....shiney! - good piece of research and somehow I tend to think that gold is over priced rather than silver under priced. No one really knows how PMs will be priced in the future and with the devaluation of fiat, PMs will always appear to increase in price but perhaps only retain "value".
Silver fever is still running in my blood but any investment purchases are more likely to be in gold aiming for a 50/50 Au/Ag stack.

 

[tozak]

Gold vs Silver

PMs as a whole: Carry no counter-party-risk, can't fall to zero, can't continually maintain a price below mining/production cost, mining/production costs of them are continually rising in the long term

Gold Pros: Gold is sort after over Silver for very large amounts due to the stability vs Silver and due to the lower storage costs per dollars invested

Silver Pros: The Gold Silver Ratio is saying it's time to load up on Silver right now. The spot price for Silver right now is much closer in terms of the mining costs of a dedicated Silver mine than of Gold to a dedicated Gold mine. The fact that both industrial demand and investment demand continue to out pace Silver says Silver has little place to go now but up.

Analysis: Unless your investing several millions of dollars or need the ability to covert back to cash in a short period of time then Silver is by far the place to be right now. Think about it logically not emotionally, it just can't fall to zero and it just can't maintain a price below the mining/production costs, the Risk Reward Ratio is OFF THE CHARTS!

Heck I'd offer to swap Gold for anyones Silver if I wasn't already 100% invested in Silver!

 

[TeaPot&ChopSticks]

Good on you mate for bringing this up.

Buying Silver in minted coins like eagles which i do is expensive but affordable on a weekly basis.

Selling now we take a loss - the thing that gets me is if gold goes explosive and silver does not move.

That is why you posted.

I like Marc Faber when he stated that he only buys gold because it fits in his safe deposit box overseas but silver will make you much more money per ounce.

Do not wish the price to blow out yet Photonaware because I am still wanting to stack.

Be happy that we have the potential to still buy cheaply

Aiming for that silver teapot and chopsticks !

 

[mmm....shiney!]

I tend to think that gold is over priced rather than silver under priced.

I tend not to think so though.

 

[goldpelican]

Gold vs Silver

You can carry a million dollars in gold in your backpack. The same value in silver requires a ute and even then would be over the rated carrying capacity.

 

[JulieW]

Gold vs Silver

You can carry a million dollars in gold in your backpack. The same value in silver requires a ute and even then would be over the rated carrying capacity.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l91ISfcuzDw[/youtube]

 

[Peter]

"Selling now we take a loss - the thing that gets me is if gold goes explosive and silver does not move."
Yes,who's to say the gold silver ratio just won't get increasingly larger?

 

[thatguy]

"Selling now we take a loss - the thing that gets me is if gold goes explosive and silver does not move."
Yes,who's to say the gold silver ratio just won't get increasingly larger?

If we get a move to $20ish for PoS I cannot see the PoG going down much then the GSR will blow out.. good times for all

 

[goldpelican]

GSR swaps are a once a year type activity.

 

[Black_Sun]

GSR swaps are a once a year type activity.

Goldpelican, I think most of us know the theory, but have probably never done it.

It sounds like you've done it more than once. Have you tracked the performance of your portfolio when doing the GSR swap? ie: what the portfolio would have been worth if you had NOT swapped, and what it was worth AFTER you swapped?

What was the relative % difference between the two portfolios? at say each EOFY.

Not talking about theory, where in hindsight, you can easily pick good times to swap. But real life performance.

Thanks.

 

[thatguy]

GSR swaps are a once a year type activity.

CGT is a killer

 

[Aureus]

GSR swaps are a once a year type activity.

CGT is a killer

Too many people forget about it, or choose to dodge it. I think it's pretty important to bring it up every now and then.

 

[miniroo]

keep your silver, keep your money and get scrapping!
there are precious metals being thrown away everyday,
you won't give two hoots whether pm's go up or down, it cost you nothing but your spare time.

copper is worth money too, heaps of copper for all, sitting on a kerb side near you.
grab it, scrap it, cash in the copper & buy pm's with free money.

buy a street sweeper, I will one day, if you look it up it, you'll find that the dust in city streets has a very high ppm of platinum, palladium & rhodium.
comes from catalytic converters which are on the exhaust of your car, the particals spew out and cities have the highest concentration of it.

just drive around all day, music on, bopping away, sucking up city dust and making a fortune, awesome!

 

[goldpelican]

GSR swaps are a once a year type activity.

Goldpelican, I think most of us know the theory, but have probably never done it.

It sounds like you've done it more than once. Have you tracked the performance of your portfolio when doing the GSR swap? ie: what the portfolio would have been worth if you had NOT swapped, and what it was worth AFTER you swapped?

What was the relative % difference between the two portfolios? at say each EOFY.

Not talking about theory, where in hindsight, you can easily pick good times to swap. But real life performance.

Thanks.

Yep. Off the top of my head my gold holdings are about 40% higher than if I'd just been buying gold all along. That's the result of buying silver with GSRs in the 60s and 70s, then switching at a GSR of 50, 45, 40 and some lower. Meant to dump all of my silver at the magic number of 32 (kilo of silver for an ounce of gold) but instead of sticking to my strategy, I got greedy and held out for it to drop lower. Swapped more at a GSR of 40 on the way back up.

It works. Same principle most of us here aspire to with swapping gold for property one day - move from overvalued to undervalued.

 

[alor]

keep your silver, keep your money and get scrapping!
there are precious metals being thrown away everyday,
you won't give two hoots whether pm's go up or down, it cost you nothing but your spare time.

copper is worth money too, heaps of copper for all, sitting on a kerb side near you.
grab it, scrap it, cash in the copper & buy pm's with free money.

buy a street sweeper, I will one day, if you look it up it, you'll find that the dust in city streets has a very high ppm of platinum, palladium & rhodium.
comes from catalytic converters which are on the exhaust of your car, the particals spew out and cities have the highest concentration of it.

just drive around all day, music on, bopping away, sucking up city dust and making a fortune, awesome!

I want to claim that all sea water is mine

but I don't have a place to keep it. :lol:

may be to some people 1:200 is a right number for GSR

I would sell enough gold provided I can get the silver fast enough, just before the price got even cheaper...

 

[goldpelican]

GSR swaps are a once a year type activity.

CGT is a killer

Only if you're selling at a profit. If metals have dropped - there's losses to be realised as well while still increasing ounces.

Got to pay the piper one day anyway - if you sit and hold, still have to pay CGT at the end. Obviously there's benefits for holding more than 12 months with regards to CGT.

 

[Shaddam IV]

GSR swaps are a once a year type activity.

CGT is a killer

Only if you're selling at a profit. If metals have dropped - there's losses to be realised as well while still increasing ounces.

Got to pay the piper one day anyway - if you sit and hold, still have to pay CGT at the end. Obviously there's benefits for holding more than 12 months with regards to CGT.

And this is why good record keeping is important.

 

[Court Jester]

I am new to this and it might be a dumb question but is there a place that you can actually " swap" silver for gold

or when you guys say "swap" you actually mean sell the silver fro $$ and then buy gold with that?

 

[markcoinoz]

Court Jester,

Welcome to the forum.

The answer to your question.

You can do it right here if you so desire on the "Buy Sell or Swap Forum".

Cheers markcoinoz

 

[Kawa]

k

GSR swaps are a once a year type activity.

Goldpelican, I think most of us know the theory, but have probably never done it.

It sounds like you've done it more than once. Have you tracked the performance of your portfolio when doing the GSR swap? ie: what the portfolio would have been worth if you had NOT swapped, and what it was worth AFTER you swapped?

What was the relative % difference between the two portfolios? at say each EOFY.

Not talking about theory, where in hindsight, you can easily pick good times to swap. But real life performance.

Thanks.

Yep. Off the top of my head my gold holdings are about 40% higher than if I'd just been buying gold all along. That's the result of buying silver with GSRs in the 60s and 70s, then switching at a GSR of 50, 45, 40 and some lower. Meant to dump all of my silver at the magic number of 32 (kilo of silver for an ounce of gold) but instead of sticking to my strategy, I got greedy and held out for it to drop lower. Swapped more at a GSR of 40 on the way back up.

It works. Same principle most of us here aspire to with swapping gold for property one day - move from overvalued to undervalued.

So in a way it's the same as the stockmarket ?