Time to back up the truck!

[Buffaloknight]

In recent weeks, there has been a bullish disconnect between silver's managed money net long position and silver futures prices. On March 20, 2018, silver's managed money net long position reached a record low of -35,172 contracts and has since rebounded slightly to -33,853 contracts as of March 27, 2018. Silver's managed money net long position will soon bounce back into positive territory.

For silver to currently be priced at $16.63 per oz despite a negative managed money net long position of -33,853 contracts is extremely bullish for the price of silver. In July 2017 and December 2017, silver bottomed at lower prices of $15.37 per oz and $15.58 per oz, respectively. This is despite silver having smaller negative managed money net long positions of -6,455 in July 2017 and -13,976 in December 2017.

When silver's negative managed money net long position reached a record -35,172 on March 20, 2018, it should have resulted in silver falling to levels well below $15 per oz. Considering that silver has remained north of $16 per oz, it shows that silver futures are poised to explode higher as shorts get squeezed in the weeks ahead. Time to back up the truck! Buy paper silver! Silver will rise significantly from now to end of June 2018.

 

[Buffaloknight]

Silver rallies when negative net longs (or shorts) start to reverse.

On July 18, 2017, silver futures to rally from $15.37 per oz up to $18.03 per oz, for a 9-week gain of 17.3%!

On December 19, 2017, silver futures to rally from $15.58 per oz up to $17.55 per oz, for a 6-week gain of 12.64%!

Two years earlier on December 15, 2015 silver futures to rally from $13.74 per oz up to $16.02 per oz, for a 13-week gain of 16.59%!

 

[sammy]

I hope you’re right ... but this kind of analysis hasn’t been working for the past few years.

 

[tolly_67]

Did he write truck........Ooops.....I thought he meant hearse!!!

 

[tolly_67]

I hope you’re right ... but this kind of analysis hasn’t been working for the past few years.

That means this kind of analysis doesn't work......

 

[whay]

Don't treat Silver as an investment. Hold for security, but it will never meaningfully appreciate.

 

[Jim4silver]

Don't treat Silver as an investment. Hold for security, but it will never meaningfully appreciate.

Really?

https://silverprice.org/silver-price-charts/20-year-silver-price-history-in-us-dollars-per-ounce

 

[whay]

Don't fall for the BS..... When seeing articles like this prices are going south....

 

[Buffaloknight]

I am disappointed in the lack of intelligent analysis to be found on this forum.

On April 4th I announced it was time to back up the truck, silver was US 16.30 per ounce.
I personally took out a long position in SLV CFDs.
Today only 16 days later silver is now US 17.26 per ounce.
A 5.8% return in 16 days! If history is a guide, the short squeeze has further to run.

This is not reading tea leaves. It is a simple matter of supply and demand. The short selling had reached an extreme level, institutional shorts which have to be covered at some stage.

If you do not understand the analysis, refrain from commenting.

 

[Peter]

Good time to sell quick.

 

[Buffaloknight]

Silver will very likely continue to appreciate for the next 3 weeks, so wait.

 

[Peter]

So sell after 3 weeks?

 

[Ipv6Ready]

Have you looked deeper as to why there are so many long contracts?

 

[Buffaloknight]

Have you looked deeper as to why there are so many long contracts?

Thank you. I like your question.

Short answer is no. There are so many participants in the silver market at the moment. Although I think it is Investment banks with trend following strategies that will have the biggest impact on the silver price.

 

[SilverDJ]

I am disappointed in the lack of intelligent analysis to be found on this forum.

On April 4th I announced it was time to back up the truck, silver was US 16.30 per ounce.
I personally took out a long position in SLV CFDs.
Today only 16 days later silver is now US 17.26 per ounce.
A 5.8% return in 16 days! If history is a guide, the short squeeze has further to run.
This is not reading tea leaves. It is a simple matter of supply and demand. The short selling had reached an extreme level, institutional shorts which have to be covered at some stage.
If you do not understand the analysis, refrain from commenting.

How much money did you invest in this call? I'm guessing not nearly everything you had.
If you were so sure of this call like it was an absolute certainty, why didn't you bet everything?

 

[Ipv6Ready]

Thank you. I like your question.

Short answer is no. There are so many participants in the silver market at the moment. Although I think it is Investment banks with trend following strategies that will have the biggest impact on the silver price.

I reckon shorts are due to all copper mines expanding to keep up with demand.
Every copper mine that can seem to be expanding, which mean glut of silver byproduct silver.
However prices are going up not down

 

[whay]

 

[Buffaloknight]

I like to use "paper silver net longs" positions as a leading indicator. The correlation is good at 0.65.
Can anyone recommend any other useful indicators?
I could calculate the correlation coefficient. With multiple indicators a better model could be created.

 

[Buffaloknight]

How much money did you invest in this call? I'm guessing not nearly everything you had.
If you were so sure of this call like it was an absolute certainty, why didn't you bet everything?

I am interested in discussing short/medium term predictive models. It does not appear to be your area of expertise.

 

[SilverDJ]

I am interested in discussing short/medium term predictive models. It does not appear to be your area of expertise.

You predicted the one in green, congrats.
What about the ones in red? Did your analysis technique predict those too?