This will be a big fall for silver

TreasureHunter

TreasureHunter

Well-Known Member
My though is: silver will fall a lot after this.

Why?

It dipped below 18 $, where it hovered for a long time - a strong psychological barrier was cracked.
Investor sentiment will weaken - as everyone sees it's falling lower and lower, many will hesitate to buy. As it usually happens, waiting for an even lower price.

Strong support is around 17 $ now, considering previous levels, but I wouldn't be surprised if silver fell to 10 $!

As a matter a fact, I expect it to fall below 15 $. And my guess is, it will be closer to 10 $ than 15 $.

Stackers, physical silver buyers are creating a silver price deflation. Buying high and holding it, expecting it to go higher. Silver didn't circulate. Similar to money.
Right now, many are holding their silver... waiting... waiting... waiting... for a higher price, which isn't coming!

A lot of silver bugs are sitting on their bullion and they're watching the market - as if the market should do something by itself.
Bigger investors might act similarly. Silver is not an attractive asset right now. Everyone is sitting and expecting... nothing happens.

It's like a deflation. And now we're below the psychological barrier of 18 $. The sideways playing following the gold & silver crash is over.

Should it fall below 17 $, it'll go all the way down. This is my opinion.

Prepare for the fall.
 
Try wood:

Stapled_birch_wood.jpg
 
If anyone wants to sell me a couple of hundred oz at 15 per oz preemptively, let me know. Offer good for, hmmmm, well, til it hits 15.50/oz..
 
I don't mind if it does go to $10, just see it as an opportunity to obtain more Oz's.

I don't see how " physical stackers buying and holding would cause deflation", wouldn't stackers holding onto physical actually " prop up the price or cause it to rise due to lack of circulating physical ?
 
Has anyone noticed everything is falling , real wage growth, real estate outside the capital cities, base metals, goods, and the share markets except the US.Price of bread and milk . Aussie dollar .Deflation here we come.
 
I don't think everything is falling, but many things in relation to "something" are indeed falling.

Food's price is increasing, consumer goods in general are getting more and more expensive.

I think it's food that's becoming more expensive, while means to pay for it are devaluing. Including gold, silver.

Are we getting closer to (I hate this word)... famine?
 
This is less about silver or gold IMHO, than it is about the USD.

Everything compared to the USD has been monkeyhammered in the past few months. Sure most other currencies have their problems, the Yens abenomics, the Pounds succesion referendum, the Euros negative deposit rates but I think the USD's behaviour maybe simply be a product of these phenomena rather than any real or material strength. Silver and gold suffer as traders follow the party line of USD strength. This is one line of reasoning.

The other (conspiracist) theory is that these economic barometers or 'commodities' if you will, need to be whipped into line to support a strong US dollar kabuki theatre.

from zerohedge:

So far market traders appear to have been assuming the dollar is strong for less defined reasons, marking down key commodities and gold as a result. However, the relationship between the dollar, currencies and bond yields needs watching as they may be beginning to signal something more serious is afoot.
Click to expand...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-21/fallacy-us-dollar-strength
 
It's about time the speculators left the Gold & Silver markets so it could fall back to a true value. It'll be 30 years till the next financial crisis. Keep buying to that point and hope you don't die or have been buying at much higher till then.
 
nbboy1123 said:
It's about time the speculators left the Gold & Silver markets so it could fall back to a true value. It'll be 30 years till the next financial crisis. Keep buying to that point and hope you don't die or have been buying at much higher till then.
Click to expand...


You are either young or naive.

The next financial crisis will be within the next few months/years, not decades.

What exactly is the true value of silver? What is the true value of anything?
 
Lower is fine with me. I'll follow it down, stack high, so I won't fell the need to follow it up (someday).
 
dccpa said:
nbboy1123 said:
It's about time the speculators left the Gold & Silver markets so it could fall back to a true value. It'll be 30 years till the next financial crisis. Keep buying to that point and hope you don't die or have been buying at much higher till then.
Click to expand...


You are either young or naive.

The next financial crisis will be within the next few months/years, not decades.

What exactly is the true value of silver? What is the true value of anything?
Click to expand...

the next financial crisis or just a hiccup? I have several Economic and Business degrees, including a masters. I've live long enough to see the stability of the system. it hiccups lots. But Silver and Gold have only really rallied on Silver Tuesday and during the 2008-09 melt down. Even 9/11 didn't cause that much of a run up. Silver and gold will be down for a while. Just keep buying low. But don't expect shtf paranoia to come true. It's like the 50's and UFO mania...
 
FNQsilver said:
I don't mind if it does go to $10, just see it as an opportunity to obtain more Oz's.

I don't see how " physical stackers buying and holding would cause deflation", wouldn't stackers holding onto physical actually " prop up the price or cause it to rise due to lack of circulating physical ?
Click to expand...

We have a dilemma there :)

Many people holding physical silver when demand is low... deflationary
Many people holding physical silver when demand is high... stimulates price increase

But of course, let's not forget the good old ETF's! :D
 
nbboy1123 said:
dccpa said:
nbboy1123 said:
It's about time the speculators left the Gold & Silver markets so it could fall back to a true value. It'll be 30 years till the next financial crisis. Keep buying to that point and hope you don't die or have been buying at much higher till then.
Click to expand...


You are either young or naive.

The next financial crisis will be within the next few months/years, not decades.

What exactly is the true value of silver? What is the true value of anything?
Click to expand...

the next financial crisis or just a hiccup? I have several Economic and Business degrees, including a masters. I've live long enough to see the stability of the system. it hiccups lots. But Silver and Gold have only really rallied on Silver Tuesday and during the 2008-09 melt down. Even 9/11 didn't cause that much of a run up. Silver and gold will be down for a while. Just keep buying low. But don't expect shtf paranoia to come true. It's like the 50's and UFO mania...
Click to expand...

The fact that you have several degrees and are still clueless doesn't surprise me.

For your edification, during the GFC gold down 30%, silver down 60%.

The system is becoming more and more unstable. Get out of your Ivory Tower and you will see that. You have grown up during the a fiat currency world and that world is being inflated by more and more debt. By definition increases in debt, like anything else, cannot continue forever. Yet the current system relies on ever-increasing debt for sustainability. The bubble will pop. Whether that pop results in a SHTF scenario, I don't know or care. What I do know is that pms will not be the protection you are hoping for. PMs are for after any SHTF scenario.

You never answered the questions. What is the true value of silver? What is the true value of anything? Come on, you have several degrees and you have stated silver will fall back to its true value. What is that true value?
 
TreasureHunter said:
My though is: silver will fall a lot after this.

Why?

It dipped below 18 $, where it hovered for a long time - a strong psychological barrier was cracked.
Investor sentiment will weaken - as everyone sees it's falling lower and lower, many will hesitate to buy. As it usually happens, waiting for an even lower price.

Strong support is around 17 $ now, considering previous levels, but I wouldn't be surprised if silver fell to 10 $!

As a matter a fact, I expect it to fall below 15 $. And my guess is, it will be closer to 10 $ than 15 $.

Stackers, physical silver buyers are creating a silver price deflation. Buying high and holding it, expecting it to go higher. Silver didn't circulate. Similar to money.
Right now, many are holding their silver... waiting... waiting... waiting... for a higher price, which isn't coming!

A lot of silver bugs are sitting on their bullion and they're watching the market - as if the market should do something by itself.
Bigger investors might act similarly. Silver is not an attractive asset right now. Everyone is sitting and expecting... nothing happens.

It's like a deflation. And now we're below the psychological barrier of 18 $. The sideways playing following the gold & silver crash is over.

Should it fall below 17 $, it'll go all the way down. This is my opinion.

Prepare for the fall.
Click to expand...
Where was your fall preparation at last $21?
That's > $3 higher than now. 20% more than today.
And now you place your topic.
Lol, if you were a weather "forecaster" people would shoot you off the screen.
 
Pirocco said:
Where was your fall preparation at last $21?
That's > $3 higher than now. 20% more than today.
And now you place your topic.
Lol, if you were a weather "forecaster" people would shoot you off the screen.
Click to expand...

As a matter a fact, I predicted the gold crash in late 2012. On this forum...

I predicted gold's price increase this July.

What are you talking about? Did I predict 21 $ silver for this autumn?

It was above 21 $ for a while this year:

silver_1_year_o_usd.png
 
TreasureHunter said:
What are you talking about?
Click to expand...
This:
"Where was your fall preparation at last $21?
That's > $3 higher than now. 20% more than today.
And now you place your topic."
Your "fall" was there > $3 bigger than today.
Regardless what happens next.
"Will be"?
or
"Has been"?
 
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