LICHTMAN: Well, we first developed the keys in 1981, and they have since predicted correctly the popular vote in all eight American presidential elections, from 1984 through 2012 usually years ahead of time. I predicted the very-hard-to-call 2012 election in print in 2010.
When you think about it, predicting elections is much like predicting earthquakes. You're predicting whether there is going to be stability the party holding the White House keeps the White House or an earthquake the party holding the White House loses, and the challenging party wins.
So we reconceptualized presidential elections, not as Carter vs. Reagan, Republicans vs. Democrats, liberals vs. conservatives, but as "party holding the White House" vs. the challenging party. Now, in earthquake prediction, they predict by looking at factors in the physical environment associated with stability and upheaval. So we chose to look at factors in the political environment associated with stability the party holding the White House stays in power and earthquakes the party holding the White House is thrown out.