The World Will Run Out of Silver in Nine Years
- Thread starter Yippe-Ki-Ya
- Start date
Ilikemetals
Member
So what is the conclusion here? Do we sell all our silver or keep it?
Yippe-Ki-Ya
New Member
Philski said:
:lol: you're a real comedian mate.
and you reckon this space age technology they're gonna use is going to make mining gold/silver cheaper?
Yippe-Ki-Ya
New Member
Philski said:
big f...g deal! Silver's future lies exactlyt where its past lies - as a monetary metal.
Yippe-Ki-Ya
New Member
dccpa said:
There may be plenty of silver left under the earth's surface, but the low hanging fruit has already been plucked! getting at this silver is going to get progressively more difficult and more importantly - more expensive...
SAVVVIE??!!?? :lol:
Yippe-Ki-Ya
New Member
Ilikemetals said:
depends on whether you wanna listen to the dumbbells here or not :lol:
Yippe-Ki-Ya said:
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: Now i understand .... So you would have been the kind of caveman who plucks all the fruit when the branch sags low but rolls over and dies when you have to invent a ladder or god forbid a pully to get the nice plentiful juicy fruit just a little above :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: Thank god not everyone is like you otherwise the human race would be extinct :lol: :lol: :lol: ill make it easy, lets say someone builds the ladder or the pully, what do you think will happen to the supply of fruit :lol: :lol: :lol:
None of what you say makes sense ... engineers are smart people, if we need silver that badly they will work out a repeatable process which at first might be expensive but later become cheaper and cheaper. this is just like any process in engineering
486 computers used to cost $2000 + now computers 100's of times more powerful cost 1/4 the price, mobile phones used to cost $1000 now devices cost half that and do many many more things. Its all about repeatable process. The same idea goes with mining processes, civil , telecommunications, mechanical and any other form of engineering.
What about oil, Look at the transition today, as we see start to run out of oil we got solar, wind and other replacements so once we are totally out the other forms of tech will takes its place, people in silicon valley are actively innovating in greentech and is currently one of the hottest areas of innovation right now cause we need to find a replacement, plus there is money to be made. If we need silver that badly there will be a boom in silvertech :lol: . Its only natural :lol:
Yippe-Ki-Ya said:
No I don't SAVVVIE. Savvie or savvvie is not a word in the US. Your thread title is that the world will run out of silver in 9 years. That statement is wrong and is easily proven to be wrong. No one disputes that mining costs are likely to become more and more expensive. However, increased mining costs of silver is a totally different scenario from total depletion of silver mining ore.
heyimderrick
Active Member
Don't forget to consider the millions of ounces that will come online once the explorers begin producing. There are new discoveries regularly, it's just a matter of time for testing, permitting, etc. before mine production begins.
Additionally with better mining tech, companies are able to go back to previously mined areas to capture mineralization that wasn't processed by dated equipment.
US Gold is an explorer and soon to be producer that I follow that is doing just that. On their website they regularly post photo updates of their mine development, feasibility studies, etc. I'm sure other companies do this, but this is the only one I personally follow. www.usgold.com
Point is, their projects are on previously mined land where they are able to make mining previously mined land profitable. What's more, their projects around the areas of other large production mines are revealing previously undiscovered deposits. So after all that, I guess my point is that there is probably far more silver and gold out there waiting to be discovered.
As for production costs, it will vary by project, but I would anticipate the actual costs going down because of more efficient equipment. I believe I read that production cost per ounce of gold would be $665 and $15 for silver at one of their projects, which is feasible to mine based on current spot prices, but it may be high compared to others because of all the initial testing and development going on.
Additionally with better mining tech, companies are able to go back to previously mined areas to capture mineralization that wasn't processed by dated equipment.
US Gold is an explorer and soon to be producer that I follow that is doing just that. On their website they regularly post photo updates of their mine development, feasibility studies, etc. I'm sure other companies do this, but this is the only one I personally follow. www.usgold.com
Point is, their projects are on previously mined land where they are able to make mining previously mined land profitable. What's more, their projects around the areas of other large production mines are revealing previously undiscovered deposits. So after all that, I guess my point is that there is probably far more silver and gold out there waiting to be discovered.
As for production costs, it will vary by project, but I would anticipate the actual costs going down because of more efficient equipment. I believe I read that production cost per ounce of gold would be $665 and $15 for silver at one of their projects, which is feasible to mine based on current spot prices, but it may be high compared to others because of all the initial testing and development going on.
To the silver hawks - Do some of your own research, dont believe the hype about silver running out, its going to the moon, I am going to be a billionare!!!! Your as bad as property investors, if you dont understand what your investing in then don't!! 
This took me twice as long to type, spell check and post here then the actual analysis and downloading of data.
How about you go to USGS website and download the datasets. You can construct nice graphs like this that show world silver output.
Dig a little deeper, you can find some estimates of what that years estimated reserves (what is feasible to mine using todays technology) and world reserve bases (all known deposits of silver that can be mined today or could be mined in the future using new and improved technologies). USGS only publish this back to 1996, so lets look at 1996 to 2009
Okay, USGS looks like they have been lazy and only updating this every few years. But the point is, every year we mine some economical Silver deposits, and we replace that with some economical Silver deposits we have discovered through exploration.
But lets assume the data is correct and roll with it. Lets conduct a super bearish thought experiment. Assume that all the greatest minds in science and technology slip on a banana peel and die tomorrow, we can only use current technology to extract Silver, which means we can only use current economical reserves.
Divide yearly rates of production by the known economical reserves, apply a linear fit (R2 value = 0.938) and holy crap, we will run out of Silver in 30 years!!!!!!! Go buy silver!!!!
But here is the problem. Show me anything in life that actually fits a linear fit? If you apply an exponential fit (R2 value = 0.9575, its a better fit to the data then the linear fit), the story is very different.
So, what is more likley?
1. As silver prices rise, people will substitute Silver for other minerals. As prices rise, exploration rises as well, new deposits are found, prices normalise. New uses for silver are found - Rinse and repeat cycle. Economical reserves may decrease but we will not run out.
2. Or we we just continue to chug through known reserves, then one day hang up a sign saying no more silver in the world? People on here who bought Silver because some guy on You Tube said so become the new super wealthy and inherit the world.
And remember, this assumption was based on us not improving technology and not using other known reserves of silver (which are 2 times economical reserves)
So sure, Silver will rise in price as economical resource slowly deplete and energy costs rise, but improvements in technology and substitution will ensure we dont run out in our lifetime. Silver is probably a very very long term play which may work out in your lifetime, maybe not. Feel free to quote this back to me in 30 years if I am wrong.
This took me twice as long to type, spell check and post here then the actual analysis and downloading of data. How about you go to USGS website and download the datasets. You can construct nice graphs like this that show world silver output.
Dig a little deeper, you can find some estimates of what that years estimated reserves (what is feasible to mine using todays technology) and world reserve bases (all known deposits of silver that can be mined today or could be mined in the future using new and improved technologies). USGS only publish this back to 1996, so lets look at 1996 to 2009
Okay, USGS looks like they have been lazy and only updating this every few years. But the point is, every year we mine some economical Silver deposits, and we replace that with some economical Silver deposits we have discovered through exploration.
But lets assume the data is correct and roll with it. Lets conduct a super bearish thought experiment. Assume that all the greatest minds in science and technology slip on a banana peel and die tomorrow, we can only use current technology to extract Silver, which means we can only use current economical reserves.
Divide yearly rates of production by the known economical reserves, apply a linear fit (R2 value = 0.938) and holy crap, we will run out of Silver in 30 years!!!!!!! Go buy silver!!!!
But here is the problem. Show me anything in life that actually fits a linear fit? If you apply an exponential fit (R2 value = 0.9575, its a better fit to the data then the linear fit), the story is very different.
So, what is more likley?
1. As silver prices rise, people will substitute Silver for other minerals. As prices rise, exploration rises as well, new deposits are found, prices normalise. New uses for silver are found - Rinse and repeat cycle. Economical reserves may decrease but we will not run out.
2. Or we we just continue to chug through known reserves, then one day hang up a sign saying no more silver in the world? People on here who bought Silver because some guy on You Tube said so become the new super wealthy and inherit the world.
And remember, this assumption was based on us not improving technology and not using other known reserves of silver (which are 2 times economical reserves)
So sure, Silver will rise in price as economical resource slowly deplete and energy costs rise, but improvements in technology and substitution will ensure we dont run out in our lifetime. Silver is probably a very very long term play which may work out in your lifetime, maybe not. Feel free to quote this back to me in 30 years if I am wrong.
Yippe-Ki-Ya
New Member
pmstacker said:
only your mama could luv you ... :lol:
Yippe-Ki-Ya
New Member
dccpa said:
listen numnutz - if you're that stupid to take the thread literally, then i've got no advice for you - just lay down and dont bother eating, drinking or anything ...
For all the dumbbells out there - who unfortunately appear to be in the majority on this blog at present - this article was simply meant to indicate one of the many arguements in support of the silver price rising over time - in this case the factor being that the 'easy' silver has already been had.
If i'd known it would BRING OUT ALL THE GIMPS i'd probably have not posted it.
SAVVVIE??!!?? :lol:
Yippe-Ki-Ya
New Member
dccpa said:
Whether a word "IS" or "ISN't" in the US is of no consequence whatsoever. At least not to those invested in the English language :lol:
Just read more mate - your vocabulary will eventually expand... :lol:
Let's me summarize for you Yippe:
1. You start threads with titles that are completely wrong.
2. You can't spell.
3. You don't have facts to support your thread titles so you insult people.
Thanks for playing yippe, but I am afraid you were so bad that we can't even give you any parting gifts. I will think of you as soon as GP adds the ignore function. Until then, adios.
1. You start threads with titles that are completely wrong.
2. You can't spell.
3. You don't have facts to support your thread titles so you insult people.
Thanks for playing yippe, but I am afraid you were so bad that we can't even give you any parting gifts. I will think of you as soon as GP adds the ignore function. Until then, adios.