The term BLACK SWAN EVENT????

Came from a book about 10 years ago.
It means "totally unexpected and unforeseen event".
Back in the 17th century, all the Europeans took it as fact that swans could only be white. That's because in their known experience, they had only ever seen white swans.
Then, when the Dutch discovered Western Australia, they also discovered black swans in the rivers there.
So the existing paradigm was shifted by a completely unexpected event.

In finance, a black swan event is something that disrupts the markets that no one had predicted and there had been no past precedent that could have warned them.
 
Yep, this term became ever more popularised since the publication of Taleb's book, now in its 2nd ed.

The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility
-- Nassim Nicholas Taleb

In fact, I'm hearing increased chatter of such an event (ie. increasing probability) by some of the notable Gold/Silver experts, and which I believe to be true.

The *What*... i've no idea, but the *When* may be closer then we think...
 
Earthjade said:
Came from a book about 10 years ago.
It means "totally unexpected and unforeseen event".
Back in the 17th century, all the Europeans took it as fact that swans could only be white. That's because in their known experience, they had only ever seen white swans.
Then, when the Dutch discovered Western Australia, they also discovered black swans in the rivers there.
So the existing paradigm was shifted by a completely unexpected event.

In finance, a black swan event is something that disrupts the markets that no one had predicted and there had been no past precedent that could have warned them.
Click to expand...

Is that Bogie as your avatar? Very nice. Who is it by?
 
7081_black-swan-bitcoin.jpg
 
Earthjade said:
In finance, a black swan event is something that disrupts the markets that no one had predicted and there had been no past precedent that could have warned them.
Click to expand...
I would define a financial one as something that some didn't predict / warned for, because their profit needed that surprise haha.

Example:
THEIR BLAH BLAH:
http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/newsManager.cfm?page_id=7&news_id=61
Friday 11 January 2013

PRESS NOTICE

FORECAST 2013 PREDICTS PRICE OF $1,753 FOR GOLD

Forecast predictions for 2013

Gold $1,753
Silver $33.21
Platinum $1,682
Palladium $744.03

In 2013, Forecast contributors predict rises for all precious metals for the fourth year in a row. Their average gold forecast is $1,753, a 5.3% increase compared to the average price to date in January 2013. Analysts predict that the average silver price will be $33.21, a 6.6% rise on the 2012 average price.

The average 2013 Platinum price is forecast to rise 8.4% from the average 2012 price, to $1,682 and palladium is forecast to rise with an average 2013 price prediction of $744.03, a 15.5% increase on last year's average price.

2012 was another good year for LBMA forecasters. Forecasters correctly predicted price rises in 2012 for gold, silver and platinum, although they were more bullish in their predictions compared to the actual average price outturn for 2012. Forecasters were also bullish about the palladium price, predicting a 12.3% price increase although the average price actually fell by 1.6% in 2012 (compared to the average price for the first week of 2012).

Forecast 2012 winners were congratulated in a press release on Wednesday, 2nd January. The full 2013 Forecast survey, including specially written commentaries and a deeper look at the historical performance of the Forecast, will be published towards the end of January and will also be posted on the LBMA website. We are intending to only produce an electronic version of the Forecast this year so no hard copies will be produced. We have also modernised the design and format of the Forecast Survey this year so look out for a brighter publication.
Click to expand...

THEIR ACTION:
http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/IAU.htm
2012/11/29 11.390.401,627
2013/01/24 10.951.823,486
2013/02/14 10.819.794,343
2013/03/08 9.863.758,707
2013/03/27 9.279.432,999
2013/04/04 9,273,449.210
2013/04/15 6,653,361.502
2013/04/17 6,445,378.670
...
2013/11/25 5,464,713.663

At the same time of this 2013 price prediction, they started selling like lemmings haha. :D
Afterwards, various articles appeared, wherein was stated that a few large fund holders dumped/crippled their gold positions.
They needed willing buyers, and that LBMA price prediction certainly helped them.
'Black swan event', in finance. :P
 
So, a black swan financial event might look like a chance discovery of 50 million tons of easily accessible gold ore in the middle of Colorado or something like that? :)




.
 
That would be fun.
Just imagine.
All those with piles gold, including central banks.
BAM
price down to $0.01 an ounce.
Who would care most?
Gold stackers?
or
Central banks?
 
CB's wouldn't be worried too much I think because CB's, unlike stackers like those members in this forum, can legally steal a country population's wealth in a number of other ways. Stackers will simply be suffering the massive loss.



.
 
mmissinglink said:
So, a black swan financial event might look like a chance discovery of 50 million tons of easily accessible gold ore in the middle of Colorado or something like that? :)




.
Click to expand...

Or a surprise nuclear attack on Iran by Israel, dirty bomb attack in New York, derivative market implodes etc
 
argos said:
In fact, I'm hearing increased chatter of such an event (ie. increasing probability) by some of the notable Gold/Silver experts, and which I believe to be true.

..
Click to expand...


Care to elaborate please.
 
Notable gold/silver experts?
From what I've seen during my silver time, those 'experts' were advising to buy after they bought, then advising to sell after they sold.
See the example case I gave some posts ago here. How ETF gold stocks started to drop big, due to some big fund managers with large gold positions (I believe those are named 'experts') at the same time the LBMA experts forecasted a 2013 $17xx average gold price.
'Notable'.
Heh.
Rather notable in their expertise to do the opposite of what they suggest others.
 
Byron said:
Is that Bogie as your avatar? Very nice. Who is it by?
Click to expand...

No, it's not Bogart - it's Albert Camus.
I found the image in a Google search and really liked it from a Deviantart artist called "MrMusX".
 
It appears many black swans this year but if you look carefully, all are linked, one causes the other, so not so black after all.

1. corona virus
2. reduced carbon emission
3. hot summer and crazy summer storms
4. megafloods and land slides
5. fault lines disturbed?
6. megaquakes?
 
non of them are blackswan event, black swan is not something you expect to happen
virus pandemic movies all over the place, that is something expected to hit us
 
It's worth repeating: it's not the virus that stalled people living/working together, it were the lazy cowards that after deserting the economy / after ceasing to help, formed an organisation named "government / state", that used propaganda and violence to force a stall.
And it's not something unpredictable, that's the trend governments bring by their nature: more and more problems creation. And why? Well, goverment / state needs problems - they use these as excuse for their absence as helping hands on the working floor.
The opposite of unpredictability, is planning. Central planning. That's the ugly world they wanna inflict us, and we should oppose it any way we can.
 
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