Why emerging markets are back in focus
The global market shake-up over the two months has been revealing. US exceptionalism is fading and long-held relationships like the correlation between a strong dollar and lower Treasury yields have faltered. Central banks are struggling with persistent uncertainty created by tariffs and the Fed faces a difficult trade-off: managing tariff-induced inflation versus supporting weakening growth.
Emerging markets, by contrast, are now in a cyclically strong position, having moved past their post-Covid defaults – a challenge still prevalent in developed market credit.
Against this backdrop, structural shifts in the global economy coupled with geopolitical conflict, trade fragmentation and fiscal pressures, are challenging traditional investment approaches. Despite global trade tensions, emerging markets are benefiting from easing inflation, improved balance sheets, and a weaker US dollar – conditions that support more accommodative monetary policies. With growing uncertainty around US policies, diversification has become essential. Portfolio reallocations away from the US already appear to be underway, as investors adopt a more selective global perspective to maintain resilient portfolios.