The reason for these prices... Is it actually "different this time?

Although I completely agree...
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The market in any 10 second window, is not as high as you'd think.

Smaller investors trades are easy for "intelligence informed" market participants to "play with"
Even just psychological, affecting decision making.
And high value participates with "special" market accounts can collaborate and MOVE market prices within certain ranges at very little cost.
they may move Millions in and out of the game, with no overall long term directional bias. simply scalping traders when the market dynamics allow them to do so with an edge.
I.e: if they're just shuffling the trading game while others are hardly participating... then there able to filter out there own behavior, and if you do that and see the orders stops and take profits, you can avoid or hit them, on purpose...
If you dominate trade for a 10-15 minute window, then you could theoretically play /position the chart pattern dynamics too, knowing the -high bias- patterns on small timeframes (1-2-3 minute windows, candle formations with 60-80% bias to outcome direction.) and when the patterns are detected, and money goes to backing those odds, they go the other way.... and profit off the expected stops.

I would say: if I place a reasonably positioned leverage trade, where my stop is known or my account would force close the position, 260 trading days of the year,
the market would take out my stop, at a loss to me, pretty reliably.

I have also got completely fed up trading multiple times and just spammed the buy/sell with remaining funds out of furious anger... rage trading: (STUPIDLY)
and the market volatility seen in those seconds minute window went OFF THE CHARTS... until I stopped.
I even did it as a test, and to my lack of surprise: volatility at my fingertips.
(ps: splitting a short, then a long, in small trades spamming trades is DUMB, but... its not as costly as throwing a computer mouse through a window, or drowning ones self in rum.... youve just got a lot of shit to unwind later.)

"No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it's not the same river and he's not the same man"

id go so far as to say: robots scraping this forum, seeing a bias to our dialog that leverage it in automated sentiment analysis, affects the deterministic output of their robots/quants etc.
it may seem small.
but if everyone here faked out conversations of sales at a loss, and exiting the market, with bearish forecasts.
that news would filter the webs enough to change the way this all plays out.

I'm just glad that everyone sold long long ago and is now short some several million/billion dollars on various markets.
so long as it doesn't reach $120 USD, we are all in the clear.
Otherwise all that silver and gold we have hedged against will have to be sold into recycling...
High prices as a way to source available material, and all that jazz.
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Contrary to my complete agreement with you on:
As silver stackers we are not moving the price of silver. nothing we can do will affect it. Not enough volume.
Experience NOT aligning with the reality of the situation is a complex thing to think your way out of.
And its very often a psychological pitfall to trading in any market.
 
I think the guys name is/was bix wier. I remember that he (or was part of a team) wrote a program many years ago that does this. Not necessarily for the reasons you suggest but monitoring social views and language changes over time in an attempt to predict potential outcomes across many areas. Started out for I think business then some minor government applications. It's been a long time since I've read about or listened to him but I remember him apparently growing up as a US army brat, being recruited later in his life after years of study and proving his concepts in the real world.
Maybe just another branch of Cambridge analytics or something
 
He was predicting the complete demise of the US financial and economic system back around 2010/2011, obviously got it completely wrong. He then "found" crypto and began championing the cryptosphere, obviously got that right.

I haven't read anything from him for a few years now.
 
Don't think he was the only one doing that post 2007-2008. I found it really interesting as a concept but how to analyse without reinforcing any bias or allowing for future structural changes/impacts. Above my pay grade
I was thinking about some people's predictions, the other week I was thinking about Steve keen (housing bubble) and if government changes in legislation and such hadn't happened how close would have he been. I ended up reflecting on some of my own choices that didn't turn out as expected concluding that we can only deal with what we know to be true at the time n try be best prepared for unforeseen changes. I think a lot if not most would agree that Government intervention/changing the rules halfway through the game can completely change short term outcomes.
 
Not to stray to far off topic, my apologies.
For every fact we know that impacts markets, how many are there that we don't know about.
Market sentiment moves markets which is why I guess programs do a lot trading trying to capture small wins and prevent large losses. Who really knows to what scale information farming is really happening and how much it impacts short term and long term.
 
mal said:
I think a lot if not most would agree that Government intervention/changing the rules halfway through the game can completely change short term outcomes.
Click to expand...

Probably the most important thing I've come to understand since Bix etc were sounding the alarm bells post-GFC is that the financial system can't fail.

This realisation guides my investment strategy.
 
The " different this time " is SUPPLY.

There has been a Structural Deficit in the supply of Silver for 7 Years ( they are stating 5 yrs, but the 1'st 2 yrs was covered by EFT outflows )

The new supply ( new mines ) coming online is not even keeping up with the old supply that is finished/finishing ( mine closures, lower grades of ore as the mines supply is coming to the end of it's life ) as they always mine the easy Silver 1'st to get cashflow going.

But 70% of Silver is a byproduct of other mining ( mainly lead & zinc ) These other miners have very little incentive to increase their mining output because Silver is a small component of their overall mining. If they ramped up their mine output ( costly in itself ) they could even affect the price of their main mined mineral ( depress the price because of oversupply ) & risk no overall profit or even a loss.

There are no new significant Silver discoveries & no reported new significant permitting applications for new Silver mines. o_O

Maybe Industries are beginning to see the " Structural Deficit " in the supply of Silver. Maybe they have decided it's time to ensure a warehoused stockpile that will cushion them from the worst effects of what could turn out to be a significant shortfall in supply into the future.

Even if the product u manufacture ( smartphone ? ) only uses a gram or 2 of Silver in it's manufacture, u HAVE TO have that Silver or no production/profit. So obtaining Silver, even at significantly higher prices, is not " Optional " for them.

What price would u pay for a ounce of Silver if not getting that ounce means u go out of business ??? :eek:
 
I guess it depends how failure is determined. Complete loss of confidence and societal collapse would definitely be a representation of a financial system failure. Some might argue that a loss in purchasing power over time making it harder for the common majority, less fortunate under educated less opportunistic people to maintain a consistent base lifestyle is a failure of sorts. Momentum and growth is crucial for the current system, this still comes at a cost.
Could a difference be that maybe we're getting closer to physical disconnecting from paper, or paper more closely representing physical
 
mal said:
Could a difference be that maybe we're getting closer to physical disconnecting from paper, or paper more closely representing physical
Click to expand...

The certainty is western society is disconnecting from reality. The gold price is one indication. It’s nothing new, it’s part of the empire cycle, it’s a part of life just like death and taxes.
Now is not the time to be chasing wealth, it’s the time to preserve wealth
 
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mal said:
I guess it depends how failure is determined.
Click to expand...

True.

Political or social collapse are precedents for financial collapse see Zimbabwe and the Weimar Republic. And in some nations financial collapse is a precedent for political and/or societal collapse.

However in nations like Australia, Canada, USA etc the financial system is a function of our political system and our political systems are largely secure, sure they're fkd at times but they're still secure. The banking system is controlled by the government, the private sector is controlled by the government, currency is controlled by the government and so on. The only way our financial system can collapse is if our political system collapses. Which is highly unlikely.

The key then is using that knowledge to our gain eg Buffet's be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are in fear, jump on the gold and silver bandwagon when pundits are screaming financial collapse, get into debt to buy assets understanding that the government will not let the market meltdown. On the other hand don't speculate in anticipation of a societal/financial meltdown because you may never live to see that day and if it did happen you probably don't want to be living.
 
SKULL said:
The " different this time " is SUPPLY.


There are no new significant Silver discoveries & no reported new significant permitting applications for new Silver mines. o_O
Click to expand...

Have a look at WCE, the old Elizabeth Hill mine... closed cos of $5 silver, theyre about to bring it back on... more drilling, but hits to >10,000g/t
 
Shaddam IV said:
There's a bit of a narrative among some industry people that this current rise in gold and silver is not driven by speculation as previous spikes clearly were, but instead is now being driven more by actual demand - industrial demand and central bank demand. It does seem at least somewhat plausible. This would be a seismic change in the gold and silver markets, if it's even somewhat accurate then it will at least put a more solid foundation beneath the current metals prices.
Click to expand...

Whether you believe manipulation of precious metals prices happens or not, the lines outside ABC Bullion and the recent media should tell you something important based on history.

Then there's the recent plunge off the cliff.

The pricing of cryptocurrency, an asset without any apparent intrinsic value, is caused by pure speculation IMHO. Gold and Silver have industrial uses above and beyond their aesthetic value, but the recent price increase is certainly due in part to speculation. If this was caused by investors rebalancing their portfolios out of equities, property and crypto, the increase would not have been so dramatic. A similar argument for an increase due to industrial uses, it would not spike the way it did.
 
betterinvestmentthanshare said:
The certainty is western society is disconnecting from reality. The gold price is one indication. It’s nothing new, it’s part of the empire cycle, it’s a part of life just like death and taxes.
Now is not the time to be chasing wealth, it’s the time to preserve wealth
Click to expand...

This is a wise statement. My only question is, what is/are the current wealth preservation asset(s)?
Cash - getting killed by inflation
Bonds - have had issues relatively recently
Property - seems to perpetually increase and is at least a physical asset, but expensive to hold and can be problematic to access equity
Equities - investing in real businesses with income streams but valued at all time highs
Precious Metals - a physical asset that historically retains value, but one that has now ramped up so high that it is hard to justify buying any more from an asset allocation perspective.
Crypto - no apparent intrinsic value, but has performed well.

So as I fill up my garage with more cans of spam and rolls of toilet paper, all i can say is: what a time to be alive.
 
GrindeRyan said:
This is a wise statement. My only question is, what is/are the current wealth preservation asset(s)?
Cash - getting killed by inflation
Bonds - have had issues relatively recently
Property - seems to perpetually increase and is at least a physical asset, but expensive to hold and can be problematic to access equity
Equities - investing in real businesses with income streams but valued at all time highs
Precious Metals - a physical asset that historically retains value, but one that has now ramped up so high that it is hard to justify buying any more from an asset allocation perspective.
Crypto - no apparent intrinsic value, but has performed well.

So as I fill up my garage with more cans of spam and rolls of toilet paper, all i can say is: what a time to be alive.
Click to expand...

A 2 major components in preserving wealth that almost everyone misses is EXIST STRATEGY and TAX.
 
So what’s the alternatives?
The good, bad and the ugly.
What asset do you trust?
Going into the future.
What are you willing to loose if the asset goes belly up?
Will it financially ruin you.
What asset is likely to loose within the next 1-3 years
 
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Cash - not an asset
Bonds - defensive, won't make you wealthy, highly liquid
Property - huge barriers to entry but generally the centrepiece of wealth creation, illiquid, long term performer
Equities - simple and accessible, highly liquid, long term performer
Precious Metals - simple and accessible, somewhat illiquid, liable to periods of underperformance
Crypto - simple and accessible, highly liquid, volatile

And then there's risk to consider which needs to be mitigated and may add to the holding costs.
 
And
If any of the above are settled through the banking system which is increasingly getting more and more difficult with accessing, restrictions on moving cash and run a risk with bank bail in laws.
 
betterinvestmentthanshare said:
And
If any of the above are settled through the banking system which is increasingly getting more and more difficult with accessing, restrictions on moving cash and run a risk with bank bail in laws.
Click to expand...

The impact of more stringent banking procedures has definitely meant that there are more hoops to jump through than previously. That hasn't heightened any risk in being exposed to those assets though.

The risk from "bail-in" legislation has been largely overblown, but it remains a popular topic in some sectors.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
The impact of more stringent banking procedures has definitely meant that there are more hoops to jump through than previously. That hasn't heightened any risk in being exposed to those assets though.

The risk from "bail-in" legislation has been largely overblown, but it remains a popular topic in some sectors.
Click to expand...

Many, including myself have experienced the downside of the current banking procedures tied with the sharemarket, crypto, including purchasing of large sums of other assets. Internet banking not working due to upgrades, internet outages, etc.
Having bank accounts frozen whilst trying to move cash to purchase assets at bargain prices only to miss out on the opportunity.
The constant harassment in where the funds came from when there is a clear and legal trail.
Constantly having to justify large purchases.
Being treated like a criminal with your own funds even though you have a legitimate history with the bank.
The list goes on
If you ever bother to read their Terms and Conditions you’ll realise the huge risk holding cash in a bank. Bank Bailin Law is there for a reason, otherwise there would be no reason to have the law in the first place, why you would dismiss it is beyond me.
 
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