The next recession we had to have

[leo25]

It begins... First businesses then households.

https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/bankruptcies

 

[sammysilver]

I’m looking to the AUD dropping under Labor.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

I’m looking to the AUD dropping under Labor.

Against which currency?

I'm thinking not against the USD but maybe against the Euro and the Yen.

 

[sammysilver]

With the US down pushing the AUD up, we need the local economy to tank in order to bring the AUD down. I trust Albo will spend like a drunken sailor!

 

[Real $ Return]

Im just an ignorant simple stacker but we've been in a recession for awhile now apart from some fixing of numbers a lil. Negative GDP propped up only by high immigration, and even then barely scrapping by. Been on the edge for awhile...but soon to be official?

 

[boston]

The Real per Capita Household Income chart is a real eye opener.

I foresee something greater than a garden variety recession heading our way.

 

[Shaddam IV]

We've driven off the map now. I expect power greenouts, unaffordable electricity, many business closures and homelessness and many people turning to depression medication.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

With the US down pushing the AUD up, we need the local economy to tank in order to bring the AUD down. I trust Albo will spend like a drunken sailor!

Mmmmm. I don't see a correlation between government spending and exchange rates.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

Im just an ignorant simple stacker but we've been in a recession for awhile now apart from some fixing of numbers a lil. Negative GDP propped up only by high immigration, and even then barely scrapping by.

Don't put yourself down, mainstream economists deliberately cloud the waters in an attempt to retain control over the narrative. They don't call economics the "dismal" science for nothing. The "narrative" has the full support of political parties and special interest groups on all sides of the political spectrum.

The truth is that it's far simpler than they would have you believe.

Government deficits = good for the economy.

Government surpluses = bad for the economy.

Albanese and Chalmers have been doing everything in their power to absolve themselves of any responsibility by attempting to cut Federal government spending and return the budget to surplus, by as you say, relying on immigration to boost demand instead.



Source: Trading Economics

 

[Shaddam IV]

Yes. Don't put your faith in the "Expert Class". They are usually smart and simultaneously stupid.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

^ I'd chuck self-serving into the mix as well.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

Nothing will change.

Labor's position:

The Final Budget Outcome for 2023–24 shows the Albanese Government’s responsible economic management has delivered a second consecutive budget surplus.

https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/m...bor-delivers-biggest-ever-back-back-surpluses

Liberal's position:

Every dollar that the government spends comes out of the pockets of everyday Australians.

https://www.liberal.org.au/wp-conte...iorities-of-a-Dutton-Coalition-Government.pdf

Saturday's election:

 

[mmm....shiney!]

@Real $ Return, it's a simple as this:



Source: Steven Hail

 

[mmm....shiney!]

@leo25, your chart in the OP compared to the Federal government budget as a % of GDP:



Source: Trading Economics

 

[Ag bullet]

We've driven off the map now. I expect power greenouts, unaffordable electricity, many business closures and homelessness and many people turning to depression medication.

Apparently everybody voted for it so, all good

 

[boston]

Apparently everybody voted for it so, all good

Given the exaggerated results of the election, I must admit to having grave reservations to the counting of the votes.

This is based upon talking to electoral employees previously who have expressed concerns to me that not all votes were counted appropriately or even at all.

I can only assume, based on rumours and speculation, that we are following the UK and USA examples in this regard.

 

[Ag bullet]

If voting mattered, I'm sure it would be illegal.

 

[Oddjob]

For those who can remember the last real recession....As PK called it "The recession we had to have".

Watching this through again after many years, it struck me how many themes / issues that were relevant then are just as front and centre today...including US tariffs.

 

[Real $ Return]

For those who can remember the last real recession....As PK called it "The recession we had to have".

Watching this through again after many years, it struck me how many themes / issues that were relevant then are just as front and centre today...including US tariffs.

Alot of similarities, Bob Hawke was before my time but now that was a Prime Minister Beer in hand a lil Recession wouldnt bother him No offence to anyone but damn our PM now Bet he couldnt down a yard glass in 11seconds! Haha. If politicians are going to be weak and irritating bordering on useless at least let them be entertaining

 

[betterinvestmentthanshare]

Next recession
I’ve just heard Labor’s big spending spree won’t start till mid 2026.
So it got me thinking, why mid 2026, why not now or towards the end of their term like they normally do?
2008, the great financial melt down, the Rudd government introduced a huge stimulus program which helped Australia avoid most of the impact.
This could be the same strategy the current government will be using to soften the impact of a global recession.
Shiney’s post above about no correlation between government spending and the exchange rate is correct, what does affect it is the debt incurred from spending and the ability for the government to service it.
How does it service it……tax tax and more tax. So if taxes are the solution then how does the government spend……debt debt and more debt.
You got to be thankful we have gold