The mother of all double tops arrived.

[Pirocco]

Look at 2000. A peak, followed by a higher peak, followed by a 50% downtrend.
Look at 2007. A peak, followed by a higher peak, followed by a 50% downtrend.
Look at 2018. A peak, followed by a higher peak, ...

With the 2018 peak being double the peaks of 2000 and 2007.

* * * E A R T H Q U A K E * * *

 

[Pirocco]

This is silver's version:

And I'm hanging 'round on the dealers website, shifting forth and back coins <> cart, I could have ordered at 498.9 or so, abit below my previous 502.88 / kilocoin but hesitated, now it's again 500.24.
I think I'm going for that USD $13 some here claimed, and still claim.
Usually, if it's stock market exodus, also some degree silver market exodus, I think this years $17.5 > $15 was already part of it, another $2 further down (maybe after a rebound phase), due to the coming ProfitGrab on the stock markets, concerns upto panic, should have a reasonable chance.
The Comex total net position (that green trendline in aboves silver price chart) sits historically low but it has been even lower in a dozen cycles since 2011, so also some room for price downmovement.

SO: SILVER TARGET $13 !
First PATIENCE !
Then HURRY !

 

[sgbuyer]

I think I'm going for that USD $13 some here claimed, and still claim.
Usually, if it's stock market exodus, also some degree silver market exodus, I think this years $17.5 > $15 was already part of it, another $2 further down (maybe after a rebound phase), due to the coming ProfitGrab on the stock markets, concerns upto panic, should have a reasonable chance.
The Comex total net position (that green trendline in aboves silver price chart) sits historically low but it has been even lower in a dozen cycles since 2011, so also some room for price downmovement.

SO: SILVER TARGET $13 !
First PATIENCE !
Then HURRY !

I had exited various stocks that I bought 2012-2015 over the last past couple of months but the price went up further. Around the same time, I bought silver only to see the price collapse after a month. I'm screwed both ways. My timing sucks!

As you said, in a market exodus, silver will also crash, so there will be more to come. At this moment, all news is bad news for gold. Trade war happens - bad news for gold. Trade war abades, also bad news for gold! -> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...r-as-us-eu-trade-tension-abates-idUSKBN1KG24K

 

[Pirocco]

I had exited various stocks that I bought 2012-2015 over the last past couple of months but the price went up further. Around the same time, I bought silver only to see the price collapse after a month. I'm screwed both ways. My timing sucks!

As you said, in a market exodus, silver will also crash, so there will be more to come. At this moment, all news is bad news for gold. Trade war happens - bad news for gold. Trade war abades, also bad news for gold! -> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...r-as-us-eu-trade-tension-abates-idUSKBN1KG24K

Compare the S&P500 and silver trends.
There are huge differences.
The stock market has been a 9 years bull market.
The silver market has been a 7 years bear market.
That is an inverse correlation on the long term.
Already much less for 2000-2003. Stock market bear, silver market sideways.
So a stock market crash doesn't have to be a silver crash, at the very least not in the same degree / over the same term.
Also, a very important element: silver has been a sideways for nearly 3 decades. The 2004+ bull start was a recovery from a bear/crash. The S&P500 was a bear after a bull (on the shorter term). This causes a "phase shifting" between both markets, so one has to think twice before judging a correlation.

So while I do give silver $13 a chance, I don't count on it, especially because the futures market hedge sits on a low. Just think about it, the current silver stocks of dealers are unhedged. At least not hedged on the silver market. If the silver price would drop, they have to sell their current stock to stackers for less, and lose. To prevent that, they will need to increase their hedge and thus increase the spot price along its forward/future component.
Likely, we'll see a $15 sideways, it's only when alot stackers would want to sell back to dealers (also the cause of that "would drop", that they'd dump the remainder of their hedge, as to make the buy back price as low as possible / disencourage the sell backs.

You will have done a much "better" job selling 2012-2015-bought stocks, than most of those that will sell in the decade trend undoing of a crash.
Only you should have waited to buy silver.
Rushing from one market to another is only valid for markets that are very inverse (long AND short terms) correlated.
The correlation between stocks and silver, is much weaker than that, meaning there are two timings, one for stocks, one for silver.

 

[sgbuyer]

So while I do give silver $13 a chance, I don't count on it, especially because the futures market hedge sits on a low. Just think about it, the current silver stocks of dealers are unhedged. At least not hedged on the silver market. If the silver price would drop, they have to sell their current stock to stackers for less, and lose. To prevent that, they will need to increase their hedge and thus increase the spot price along its forward/future component.

Likely, we'll see a $15 sideways, it's only when alot stackers would want to sell back to dealers (also the cause of that "would drop", that they'd dump the remainder of their hedge, as to make the buy back price as low as possible / disencourage the sell backs.

I'm considering the possibility that silver price may even move sideways as you mention or increase gradually to $17 only to crash down to $13 when the stock market capitulates either later this year or next year.

In May, it wasn't clear whether Silver will breakout due to the low GSR - everyone knows that Silver is the most undervalued asset class in the world. But no one can also imagine that China will deliberately devalue the Yuan as a reaction to Trump's tariffs. There's a lot of politics at play which no one can predict the outcome.

Only you should have waited to buy silver.
Rushing from one market to another is only valid for markets that are very inverse (long AND short terms) correlated.
The correlation between stocks and silver, is much weaker than that, meaning there are two timings, one for stocks, one for silver.

It looks like I'll have to brain wash myself not to buy any significant amount of silver until the stock market capitulation. Meanwhile, I've been looking at numismatic coins to pass my time.

As for buying silver, no regrets. There's always a learning curve, especially with physical silver, it's not like SLV or GLD. A lot of research time is needed. Had I delayed buying, I would have freak out and got cold feeted by now - and miss out in the rally when inflation really comes.

 

[Pirocco]

Tell me about it, most of my silver was bought in the $50 peak year 2011.
Only that I had done at least a peanut research: I just took the Federal Reserves monetary base (that was increased in its excess reserves component), compared it to what the monetary base had been before the 2008 crisis, assumed that would be the price inflation to expect, assumed silver was a safe choice at the same multiplication of its 2008 bottom, and thus found a $30 limit to buy silver, I hesitated in 2010, to see the $30 approach, "last chance", and swapped savings to silver.
So with $15, I lost halve my savings.
I corrected it in a degree, but only a small one, I spent most in 2011, and unlike governments, what got spent you can't spend again. "no dry powder", in speculators terminology. Not enough, in my case.
I should have sold at that 2011 peak.
But that wasn't my plan at all. I wanted to buy and hold, just like I bought my euro's and held them as bank savings.
I never expected silver to be driven to $50, the (bigger than me) stupidity at the time baffled me, I placed critic on the Kitco forum but it was full of happy people, including those that had their fist hanging over a SELL button, and anybody that questioned the uptrend was treated as the enemy lol.
Looking back, instead of placing critic, I'd better shaddup and hammer the SELL button myself. But at the time, that wasn't as simple as now, there were nearly no dealers around that offered to buy back on their sites. It was only after the price collapse. For the obvious reason lol. I also refrained on a moral basis, my goal wasn't to win purchasing power along silver, it was to preserve the purchasing power it had.
However, the Feds QE's I discovered later as big scams, and instead my story went from a not grabbed 50% profit to a 50% loss.
I didn't do the homework it required, that's it.
I should have bought silver already decades ago. There was a moment that I started to realize that I lost purchasing power with my bank account. Around 2000 crap bank personell lured me into stocks, but I kept a close eye on it, and despite hefty protest of that bank personell I dumped already after a couple years loss accumulation. Seen afterwards, if I hadn't, I'd have lost 75% by 2008.
Then, in 2010, I realized that despite 10 years further saving, I could still only buy that same house I could have bought abit over a decade earlier (house prices doubled, and the central planning thieves instead gradually dropped their intrest rate on deposits).
And that was my incentive to search for alternative ways. To lose another half.
Maybe the end of silver bear market is indicated by all those new pm dealers that popped up since 2007 or so, having been forced to the jobs they did before.
That dealer I bought most of my silver from in 2011, ran a luxe cab renting company before, lol.

 

[Pirocco]

In 2000, the -50% needed 2 years to reach the bottom.
In 2009, a couple months less.
In 2018, it should be a -75%, dunno if the degree of correction has an influence on the speed of correction.
A pity finviz doesn't show 1970+. At least as far as I could search without hitting fees.

 

[Pirocco]

Silver, the 2008 crisis was a $20 to $10 drop, and a 300 Moz (60K x 5000) hedge to a 100 Moz.
Now silver is $15 and the hedge is 100 Moz. If silvers price would drop further, dealers would have to sell their existing stock below their buy price, and it would need ETF's and/or stackers to do a large selloff.
The Comex stock is historically seen big, 283 Moz - it rose in recent year with 100 Moz.
In meantime, recent days, I increased my dealerbased stockpile to a monsterbox of those athenian owls.
But that brought me already below what I intended to keep as fiat. Since the price dropped from 15.09 to 14.96, buying now is 15 cents cheaper per coin, and they have now again 255 avail, and I'm tempted again.
What will silvers price do during the S&P500 downtrend, that's the question.
It's hard to believe again drop to $10. Possible, but like it is now, it should be due to ETF shareholders and stackers. Industrials hedge themselves too, but the total hedge is now low, so they would lose together with dealers.
In 2008, you had a couple weeks to buy silver at $10.

WHAT SHOULD I DOOOOO *** THUNDER !!!! ***