A family member commented that I must be writing another book.
Apologies, no need for everyone to read everything.
First, I am anti-war. I remember conversations with friends and my position was "War is senseless, we need to end it."
Friends told me "Join the real world, there will always be war, get used to it."
I am not predisposed to liking war. Not looking for points, just trying to shine some light.
Still I paid attention to those to those arguments that said, 'Well, war improves the economy."
Then a group of people start saying 'We were wrong to think war was good for the economy, it isn't.'
So I look at their reasons why what I have been hearing all these years is not true, and I see no rebuttals to the primary reasons.
An argument that ignores primary reasons is called a straw man argument. This is a fallacy of logic. This only means the argument is suspect, not necessarily wrong.
The rebuttals I see are bringing morality in.
They suggest that there are good ways to spend money, and bad ways to spend money - from a human standpoint.
Economics has no morality.
Science (in and of itself) has no morality. Scientists get their morality from ethics, not science.
"The money could have been spent for better things.' -value judgment, has no bearing on economic improvement.
You want to bring morality in, fine, make a moral argument against war, easy enough to do.
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Hawkeye What the Austrian school are talking about is the unseen.
What I am talking about is unseen as well.
Women entering the workforce - how do you measure the economic benefits?
Robotics for missing limbs destroyed by IUDs, how do you measure the economic benefits.
Coke expands into Europe, creating a brand new market for their product - They were selling plenty to civilians. Not just coke and Fanta I am sure.
Not all arguments can be supported by data, numbers. Sometimes it is critical thinking.
Hawkeye How many things weren't produced because so much capital and resources were diverted towards the war effort?
Sounds like a morality argument to me.
Guns bad, butter good.
The economy does not care.
Hawkeye It was only when the war was over that you got an economic boom and explosion in innovation. It was far more muted in the war period.
We agree, war was the cause of the economic boom. First the cause, then the effect.
Hawkeye Imagine if that economic boom had occurred 10 years earlier. How much better would we be off today.
Except, war sparked the boom. Imagine if that boom never happened, how we would have to wait for those benefits.
Hawkeye My experience is that government retards economic growth.
Well, a common viewpoint, that surely is a generality, with lots of exceptions.
In the USA, no government: no railroad system, no interstate roads, no improved waterways (locks and dams), no airports, no health inspections, on and on. I suspect the same in other countries.
Hawkeye I would say that government's need wars.
War is a tool of big business. That's what my crowd has always said, and I believe it.
Halliburton is a recent example for the USA.
There is profit to be made from war, and we know who likes profit.
In capitalism Government does not make guns, bullets, bombs and tanks. Big business does.
The non-capitalists, they buy these from the capitalists, who make good money, selling the tools of war (no moral judgments, please - the topic for another day).
Hawkeye The reason they need them is because they are the ones who ultimately stifle the economy. It is a good distraction and it gets rid of many young men that can't otherwise find employment because of what the government has done in terms of all the rules and regulations to protect older workers. It can show up on the numbers as being very good for the economy but when you look at what is happening on the ground, you see rations, people maimed and killed etc.
Government stifles the economy by stupidity, not intentionally. War is an intentional effort.
Hawkeye Smaller wars like Iraq and Afghanistan are basically money-laundering schemes. You scare the population that they are under threat. You then take money from the population through taxes and use it to buy the vehicles necessary to prosecute the war. This comes from publicly-held companies which receive quite a boost in turnover and profits which results in higher share prices. Guess who's holding the shares? Then when you have bombed the countries infrastructure you use further taxpayer money (and overseas debt) to fund the reconstruction. Again, it goes to publicly-held companies and well again, you can guess who is holding shares in them. End result. Lots of jobs in military industries to keep the population happy, a massive debt, a crumbling infrastructure, and a housing bubble from keeping interest rates low to pay the overseas debt. Basically you move money that is raised in taxes, through a series of cutouts (involving many deaths and much misery of others), onto your own personal portfolio. Works great.
Wars are necessary for big bureaucracies. Not for the rest of us.
"publically held companies" - that is big business - right? I am the public.
Who holds the shares - stock holders!
Taxpayer money funds reconstruction, agreed. Who cashes the checks? You guessed it, Big Business.
Maybe it is different in your country - speak up, I want to hear. Maybe the government owns the factories producing construction materials, not that way here.
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Lovely80 The problem is that economics is dominated by Keynsian Fcktards who always look at figures that governments can easily manipulate (GDP). Economic growth isn't some sort of set constant that just because you see a higher figure that things are better or the economy is better.
We agree, the numbers do not tell the story. Those who say war is not a benefit economically and use numbers to show this are peeing into the wind. Sound reasoning is needed.
Lovely80 I'm sure the GDP figures of Western Germany looked great when Ludwig Erhard told the yanks to piss off and brought about changes that allowed Western Germany to rebuild. But in reality all that employment generated and immigrants employed to rebuild Germany still only returned Germany to some where below where Germany was pre-war. Imagine if that much manpower, innovation, and resources had been employed to improving Germany instead of rebuilding it?
Dream all you want to, the USA and allies are not going into a peaceful Germany and build hospitals, schools, more, out of the goodness of their hearts.
You offer a false dilemma. 'War reconstruction, or peacetime construction - which is better.' Those are not the choices. Do nothing for Germany - that is a choice.
Lovely80 As Hayek said very well in the Keynes V Hayek rap(2). "Jobs are a means to an ends not the end in themselves."
A morality argument.
The economy does not care.
Prosperity does not care.
Moral arguments have their place. It is easy to make a moral argument against war.
Immoral profits are still profits.
Lovely80 "If every worker was employed in the army and fleet, we'd have full employment and nothing to eat"
Yes, of course.
And if everyone were employed in farming, we be cold, homeless, unable to travel, with full stomachs.
False dilemma.
It does not have to be all guns or all butter.
Lovely80 We have to start allowing our eyes to glaze over when we hear economists ranting about GDP and government involvement in those figures, especially when it comes to war. If they had an ounce of credibility their idiotic ideas would make bombing our own cities and rebuilding them a good idea because these morons only care about GDP figures.
Think about the scarce resources wasted. How much steel is wasted in a tank that could of gone to building a high speed train? Which one really spurs the economy? A higher productivity generating asset like a train or a human killing destroying tank? Both require mechanical engineers and innovation to build but one enhances lives and one destroys them.
Eyes glazed over, yes, I think I see it.
Tanks are melted down for trains.
Which is better for the steel makers, engineers, designers - to make tanks, then melt them and make trains, or to just to make trains.
The economy is better off when two jobs are created, not just one. Morality is a different issue.
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mmm.Shiney Not necessarily a good thing. The diversion of capital to the war machine comes at an opportunity cost. For example, WWII cost $296 million (or $4.1 billion adjusted for inflation in 2011)*. Because war is a decision taken by governments with no consultation with the taxpayer ie those that ultimately finance the war, the question that must be asked is "If the taxpayer had a choice in how to spend the $296 million, would they choose war or would they choose to invest that sum in another opportunity, an opportunity that could possibly provide greater return?" It can only be assumed that if given the choice, the taxpayer's preference would be to invest that $296 million elsewhere. If this were not true, it would not be necessary for governments to appropriate those funds by force in the first place.
$296 million of taxpayer money could have been more wisely invested in other opportunities which may have led to greater innovation than a war machine. Or preferably, not have been collected in the first place.
You make a numbers argument, and most of us believe numbers arguments are misleading, on both sides.
mmm.Shiney You are suggesting that war is the best innovator.
A good innovator, not the best.
The space race is a better innovator. Money down a rat hole to some, government money squandered when people are starving. Still, it opens doors to progress, and improves the human condition in many ways.
mmm.Shiney quotes Peter Klein: "The fact something exists as a result of government expenditure is not an argument that it creates any economic value...at best government spending is harmless (he's talking in respect of the output)...or in most cases it makes it substantially worse off because it leads to the creation of things we otherwise wouldn't have or that we don't want."
We agree.
However, this rebuttal is ineffective at demonstrating that
no government expenditure has any economic value. Hogwash.
Some government expenditures are invaluable for creating economic value.
Transportation systems, education systems, health care systems, armed forces to protect from invaders, more, all can create economic value for the citizens.
Not necessarily, but potentially, and in practice, it happens. How often is a different matter.
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bordsilver Capitalism flourished after Stalin, Mao and Che won their wars as well
Okay, got me!
I should have said 'When a capitalist country wins the war.'
bordsilver I'm still in two minds about the opening article (which I still have to read it properly). I'm sure the Inquisition generated many new innovations as well but that doesn't really mean anything. More important, however, is the ability to take innovations and apply them beneficially to non-war areas of life. This aspect does not flourish under a war machine or a socialist state. It's one thing to correlate economic innovation with war, it's another to correlate such innovation with subsequent economic growth without recognising the fundamental elements required to actually generate that growth are inimical to the things that (perhaps) generated the innovations.
So here we go with the moral arguments.
'Was the Spanish inquisition good for the economy?' Really????
You know what, maybe it was. Does that justify the event? WTF!!!
It seems to me you and others want to make economic progress a moral issue.
Fine. 85 individuals owing 50% of he global wealth is immoral. We need to get an army and take it away from them. That would be good moral progress. (being factitious).
bordsilver I'm thinking that another thing to consider is that many innovations are stumbled upon as a result of active attempts to overcome the problem of scarcity (see the induced innovations literature). War artificially generates scarcity in new areas (eg tank production) whilst also generating scarcity in areas of supply that were happening prior to the war (eg fresh food production). This does not mean that people weren't already focussing on innovations addressing scarcity issues prior to the war, but that the scarcity was felt more keenly in the areas of 33rpm Vinyl, 255 horsepower V8's, affordable housing materials or GM-free organic tofurkey.
Putting a value judgment on motivation morality.
I have never, repeat never, (like it never, ever, happened) heard someone suggest that war caused an innovation that never would have happened without war.
If someone has not been considering this, they are on your side of the fence, not mine.
Sooner is better than later for economic prosperity from innovations, and war makes it sooner in some cases.
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Many of us have been making arguments against war for many years, and the 'Flower child's' of the 60's were not the first. This from an Old Hippy. An Old biker, and an Old Hippy, what a combination.
This idea that war does not bring economic boom is yet another anti-war argument.
Hey, I wish you luck.
After all, it is the beneficial result that matters, not the fallacious, misguided arguments that got us there. But, that would be a moral judgment.
Cheers