Stockmarket Blues

Anyone wanna place a bet on how big of a U.S. drop tonight??
Should be impressive now that China has smashed support.

65_calm.png
 
Yep, never prepared to make a call before the event, but quick to criticise anyone who puts their balls on the line :D
 
Never put your balls on the line when the Fed is in play.

Dovish comments are most likely imminent and there will be some insiders who know this already and will no doubt have acted on it.
 
Ok. If you say so ;)

Here is a snip of a market action report from Yahoo (not the best news source, but a fairly vanilla MSM typical article) :-

Investors also awaited more clues to whether the Federal Reserve and other central banks will help stabilize markets that have been roiled partly due to worries about weakening economic growth in China.

The U.S. central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged after its two-day policy meeting that began Tuesday and signal it may not raise rates until mid-2016 at the earliest.
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Is it possible that some market players have an inside tip about what the outcome of the FOMC might be?
 
No Chinese whispers, BuggedOut. A case of who dares wins.
Fed leaves rate unchanged as expected, & down she goes. Loving this volatility.
Dropping the rate would have caused more of a panic in my opinion, similar to circuit breakers in China recently, having opposite to desired effect.

Stockmarket dropped hard with rising oil. Have a look back through history for anyone who thinks the general market only rises with rising oil (approx half the time only!).
 
A case of who dares wins.
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Sounds pretty gung-ho. A very dangerous way to approach the market IMHO. Each to their own I suppose.

They were never going to lower rates and were incredibly unlikely to raise rates, but it's the announcement that provides the insight into future policy which investors have been waiting for. The consensus seems to be somewhere between "mildly dovish" and "neutral" which is probably not far from many players expectations. Naturally there is a bit of choppiness as a result, but overall it is pretty much a status quo outcome (but it could easily have been different - thus the risk)

I myself am a cautious bear and what it means to me is that it should be safe to now resume my STFR strategy.
 
For anyone with big balls shorting this market, here is my take on where we are at...

US Market has broken through major downtrend line & currently re-testing that resistance. (see chart)

China today should also be re-testing their resistance after breaking through horizontal support earlier in the week.

If this theory holds true the market shouldn't rise too much more from here.

As always, have a stop in place in case certain news (negative interest rates etc) causes market chaos.

Peace out!

65_spx_resistance.png
 
Nice comparison.

My big balls shrunk a little yesterday when I got caught off guard by the BoJ decision. Can't believe I was so cautious of the Fed and held off only to get done over by the BoJ the very next day.

I picked the last few days of consolidation to be a dead cat bounce of sorts, but with the BoJ decision the rally might be a bit bigger than I anticipated.

Good luck with your short. We're both going to need some of that.
 
What I'd like to see Monday afternoon? China devaluation in response to the BoJ move. That ought to cause a decent market rupture....
 
SilverSale said:
Love this banter - had a similar response on this forum when I called for a bear market in precious metals 4 years ago. :D
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4 years ago you call for a bear market.
Now you call for a bear market.
I suppose you keep calling for bear markets until the bottom, to then call for bull markets until the top, just like before 4 years ago?
Keep yelling the trend until it changes, talking about banter, that's banter.
What was your alias before 4 years ago?
SilverBuy?
Until $49.5?
:D
 
SilverSale said:
Somewhat similar setup with today's market compared to the Crash of '87.

http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/65_crash2016.png
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Suppose crash.
Then what?
Those that sold in 2008 at the bottom.
Those that held in 2008 at the bottom.
Could have sold at a tripling shortwhile ago.
And even today, at an over-doubling.
Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something.
Of course, some need suckers to sell at bottoms and buy at peaks.
 
Dow down 1.8% overnight and the VIX is spiking back up. Europe looks pretty red across the board.

Next wave of selling looks like it's building now. Look out below!!
 
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