STACKERS!! Will silver KEEP GOING DOWN?! >> Could we see $20/oz??

A few months back I charted a prediction for Silver to 2016 based on a combination of the recent repeated moves and pull-backs as well as the run up in the late 70's, so far shown in blue it has been tracking along fairly close to the prediction. Just putting it out there for anyone interested, I would not trade to it, it's just guess work but I found it interesting to watch how close it has been to tracking the real spot price.

1666_silver2016.jpg
 
what do the years and the multiples mean if you dont mind explaining, and the green circles.
cheers.
 
Fykus said:
what do the years and the multiples mean if you dont mind explaining, and the green circles.
cheers.
Click to expand...


The years are the amount of time in each Bull-leg along with the % multiple from bottom to top of each leg and the green circles are just to indicate each of the Pull-backs.

Each time it runs up, peaks, pulls back, consolidates then the next leg starts. Most legs co-en-side perfectly to an inverse of the US dollar index.
 
tozak, you wonderful optimist you!

(Actually I don't really mind what you are, but it's a nice graph ... bring on $330 in 2016 haha!).

I'm still buying now, because, unlike some who think that cash has nowhere to go, mine tends to get spent, so I just task myself to make sure regular amounts are on silver (and the rest).
 
Macros_The_Black said:
tozak, you wonderful optimist you!

(Actually I don't really mind what you are, but it's a nice graph ... bring on $330 in 2016 haha!).

I'm still buying now, because, unlike some who think that cash has nowhere to go, mine tends to get spent, so I just task myself to make sure regular amounts are on silver (and the rest).
Click to expand...

Yeah well just look at the long struggle with the price in the 70's, unless we see double digit interest rates then we are destine for a similar repeat and similar % gains.

I'm with you, I like Silver over every other investment because it's just so simple. It's highly sort after for industry, it cost more every year to mine it, historical stockpiles are low and it can never crash to zero dollars, what else could you save with that has all that going for it?

To me my guess for the short term is I think we are near a bottom and not going anywhere up or down until after the US election.
 
tozak said:
A few months back I charted a prediction for Silver to 2016 based on a combination of the recent repeated moves and pull-backs as well as the run up in the late 70's, so far shown in blue it has been tracking along fairly close to the prediction. Just putting it out there for anyone interested, I would not trade to it, it's just guess work but I found it interesting to watch how close it has been to tracking the real spot price.

http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1666_silver2016.jpg
Click to expand...

I want to see that graph in AUD at AUD/USD=0.66.
 
tozak said:
A few months back I charted a prediction for Silver to 2016 based on a combination of the recent repeated moves and pull-backs as well as the run up in the late 70's, so far shown in blue it has been tracking along fairly close to the prediction. Just putting it out there for anyone interested, I would not trade to it, it's just guess work but I found it interesting to watch how close it has been to tracking the real spot price.

http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1666_silver2016.jpg
Click to expand...


I hope it goes just like ur predictions ;)
 
Tozak,

Thanks for the chart, fascinating. Don't know about the 2016 stuff, but the 2012 is about the most accurate (time wise)I have seen to the levels I've got, but it is a couple of months earlier. I've got more late year bottom (final) and then up. Just refreshing to see something similar for a change rather than the drivel I usually read.

About the only guy who seems remotely accurate lately is D.Morgan. The rest other than jumping on the very recent bandwagon (along with everyone else) couldn't hit a barn door.

Oh and I really hope the 2016 stuff is spot on chap along with all here :)
 
^
If the silver price skyrockets like this, geez I cant imagine what we are gonna pay for petrol, groceries, etc etc ...
 
tozak said:
Macros_The_Black said:
tozak, you wonderful optimist you!

(Actually I don't really mind what you are, but it's a nice graph ... bring on $330 in 2016 haha!).

I'm still buying now, because, unlike some who think that cash has nowhere to go, mine tends to get spent, so I just task myself to make sure regular amounts are on silver (and the rest).
Click to expand...

Yeah well just look at the long struggle with the price in the 70's, unless we see double digit interest rates then we are destine for a similar repeat and similar % gains.

I'm with you, I like Silver over every other investment because it's just so simple. It's highly sort after for industry, it cost more every year to mine it, historical stockpiles are low and it can never crash to zero dollars, what else could you save with that has all that going for it?

To me my guess for the short term is I think we are near a bottom and not going anywhere up or down until after the US election.
Click to expand...


Thanks for that chart Tozak.

It is very interesting.

Just looking at it, your prediction atm is down to around $25 till the elections and then onwards and upwards into 2013 and beyond.
I have been using monthly spot price ratio since 2009 in USD. It is currently just below 56 and has been steadily increasing over this past month.
It was 52.92 end of last month, so there appears to be a greater push downwards with Silver more so than Gold. Will be interesting to see what impact a lower dollar will have on the ratio and if it continues to expand with a decreasing AUD. From my perspective the larger the ratio (more ounces for your money) and eventually the greater the bounce for Silver when it does go back up, hopefully parabolic:)

Cheers markcoinoz
 
Tozak,I thank you for the work you put into your chart.Many of you may think Im crazy but I just bought my weekly 5 ozs or so.I was able to get a few britannias for $32 and some dragon bars for about $40 so I hit the buy button.I just got my tax return check and took some IRA money out so Im still ready to buy when the drop hits the low 20s if it does.Good luck to everyone...dont get shaken out.
 
tozak said:
A few months back I charted a prediction for Silver to 2016 based on a combination of the recent repeated moves and pull-backs as well as the run up in the late 70's, so far shown in blue it has been tracking along fairly close to the prediction. Just putting it out there for anyone interested, I would not trade to it, it's just guess work but I found it interesting to watch how close it has been to tracking the real spot price.
Click to expand...

Eye raising graph.
What was your methodology in compiling it?
 
Earthjade said:
tozak said:
A few months back I charted a prediction for Silver to 2016 based on a combination of the recent repeated moves and pull-backs as well as the run up in the late 70's, so far shown in blue it has been tracking along fairly close to the prediction. Just putting it out there for anyone interested, I would not trade to it, it's just guess work but I found it interesting to watch how close it has been to tracking the real spot price.
Click to expand...

Eye raising graph.
What was your methodology in compiling it?
Click to expand...

I noticed that each time it ramps up and pulls back it forms a very similar pattern and it's the same thing for the 70's. I just used the same % moves, obviously this means it's now inflation adjusted and we are starting from a much higher point this time, then looked for the key support and resistance points for possible points of reversal / consolidation. Looked forward for key dates likely to effect US treasury bonds as this will likely have the inverse effect on commodity prices. I admit it's all pretty crude but was worth the night I spend plotting it, I forgot about it until just recently and it seems to have started tracking this prediction very closely so thought I would just throw it out there on the odd chance spot continues down this same path.

In the 70's it took years to consolidate before the big run up and this graph is more in line with that, really don't even break $50 until Feb/Mar 2014, however places a floor at about $26. I noticed a continuing trend of pull backs and rallies, each time the pull backs (marked in green) go for longer and longer periods of time however this just makes the potential gains on the next leg of the rally even more greater. I think we could be looking at the final pull back which time wise will come to an end towards the end of this year then the next rally will be the biggest final rally, slow to start with then will pick up pace rapidly.
 
Tozak, the only problem I have with a comparison to the 1970s is that when silver hit its peak in 1980, it was due in large part to the Hunt Brothers trying to corner the market. Now, that is not a cyclical factor.
Of course we have an impending US debt crisis to come, but I think it's too difficult to extrapolate the trend going parabolic, even though that is what we are all hoping.
Because while most people here say they're in it for the wealth preservation, they secretly have the heart of a speculator.
 
Earthjade said:
Because while most people here say they're in it for the wealth preservation, they secretly have the heart of a speculator.
Click to expand...

+1 :D

Why is there such a stigma about this?
 
Earthjade said:
Tozak, the only problem I have with a comparison to the 1970s is that when silver hit its peak in 1980, it was due in large part to the Hunt Brothers trying to corner the market. Now, that is not a cyclical factor.
Of course we have an impending US debt crisis to come, but I think it's too difficult to extrapolate the trend going parabolic, even though that is what we are all hoping.
Because while most people here say they're in it for the wealth preservation, they secretly have the heart of a speculator.
Click to expand...

The parabolic move had a lot more to do with the inflationary factors at the time and the decline was due to the Fed raising interest rates to 20%, the media however continue to point the finger solely at the Hunt Brothers however this was only a small factor in the price moment.

If we compare, we have already had Warren Buffet buy 130,000,000 ounces in 1997/1998 and then for some reason (tap on the shoulder) sold it all by 2005/2006, we also had Von NotHaus establish the Liberty Dollar in 1998 then only to have all the Silver confiscated in 2007 by a secret service raid and handed over all the metal to Bear Sterns to cover shorts (didn't help them in the end). Not to mention the amount of ETF Silver allocated on the PSLV by Eric Sprott (Wouldn't be surprised if he comes under fire next as the manipulation continues). Anyway despite all of this corning of the Silver market and then the subsequent liquidations the price continues to rise, this is because corning the market effects the short term price but not the long term trend. Only two things are effecting the long term trend and that's #1 Supply vs Demand and #2 Artificially Low Interest Rates. We don't need another Hunt Brother scenario, the stage is already set without one.
 
tozak do you have any link regarding the liberty dollar silver being used to cover bear stearns short position?

first i have heard of this.

not doubting your info but would like to see some links etc.
 
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