SS Crypto Brains trust.
- Thread starter southerncross
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' pull up some old threads from 3 years ago.' 'CMC' is far from perfect, but it is on okay place to start. Work across 'ALL' and 'YTD' and '3M':
https://coinmarketcap.com/
https://coinmarketcap.com/
↑'XRP up 100% in the past seven days, over 200% in the past year. NAV up 50% the past week. Total market cap up 70% since this time last year. Doesn't sound like a bubble bursting to me.'
"That sounds like people catching falling knifes.
"
Small post for Big Thinking:
insufficient data!
We can't even fairly compare the 'cooling' after the 2013 spike to the present situation because the 'pyramid of adoption and regulation' was soooo much narrower at its base in December, 2013.
Two Things:
One: this is The Big Guv Push-Back. The situation will be far more interpretable in two years or so.
Two: dig it, campers! What you see as 'cryptos' on Reddit and CNN and Blockchain Daily Nooz is a facade. 'OTC' -- big-time behind-the-scenes trading -- is immensely larger than your average Redditor knows, and Whatever These Futures Are is something to focus on.
"That sounds like people catching falling knifes.
"Small post for Big Thinking:
insufficient data!
We can't even fairly compare the 'cooling' after the 2013 spike to the present situation because the 'pyramid of adoption and regulation' was soooo much narrower at its base in December, 2013.
Two Things:
One: this is The Big Guv Push-Back. The situation will be far more interpretable in two years or so.
Two: dig it, campers! What you see as 'cryptos' on Reddit and CNN and Blockchain Daily Nooz is a facade. 'OTC' -- big-time behind-the-scenes trading -- is immensely larger than your average Redditor knows, and Whatever These Futures Are is something to focus on.
Inmizu,
Would it be fair to say that the initial mania bubbles have burst and the coin space is now moving onto a more adolesant/maturing stage of their development?
Would it be fair to say that the initial mania bubbles have burst and the coin space is now moving onto a more adolesant/maturing stage of their development?
'Would it be fair to say that the initial mania bubbles have burst and the coin space is now moving onto a more adolesant/maturing stage of their development?'
Hey, ozi. Yes and no:
on the 'yes' side, Governmental regulation of centralised exchanges, and the 'bottlenecking' of fiat-crypto transactions, and I think these 'futures,' now serve to somewhat constrain the crypto markets. (And the national 'e-fiats' will have a tempering affect.)
on the 'no' side, there are still plenty of people in the world left to adopt cryptos, certainly in nations with imploding economies, where there is less government oversight. And GFC2 would give us mania and to spare.
Note also: at present, Bitcoin+OtherCryptos is rightly perceived as a sorta big blob -- 'the coin space' -- and that fact fuels the bubbles. What we should watch for is a growing consciousness of types of cryptos, and we could see some pretty bubble-icious behaviour in certain 'sub-spaces.' Privacy coins come immediately to mind. An actually successful 3.0 crypto would blow our hair back. The advent of quantum computing would upset a lot of apple carts.
Hey, ozi. Yes and no:
on the 'yes' side, Governmental regulation of centralised exchanges, and the 'bottlenecking' of fiat-crypto transactions, and I think these 'futures,' now serve to somewhat constrain the crypto markets. (And the national 'e-fiats' will have a tempering affect.)
on the 'no' side, there are still plenty of people in the world left to adopt cryptos, certainly in nations with imploding economies, where there is less government oversight. And GFC2 would give us mania and to spare.
Note also: at present, Bitcoin+OtherCryptos is rightly perceived as a sorta big blob -- 'the coin space' -- and that fact fuels the bubbles. What we should watch for is a growing consciousness of types of cryptos, and we could see some pretty bubble-icious behaviour in certain 'sub-spaces.' Privacy coins come immediately to mind. An actually successful 3.0 crypto would blow our hair back. The advent of quantum computing would upset a lot of apple carts.
Appreciate the response inmizu.
Considering that 98% of cryptos are BS that do nothing useful, i would say no. Though I've noticed a few adult sites accepting cryptos as payment, so maybe that can be considered adolescent?
If anyone has a background in conventional (U.S.) stock markets -- not
moi -- please offer thoughts on and explanations of the Bitcoin and other cryptos' futures things. Guys, I'm sure it will be highly influential; but I don't understand the arithmetic of it.
In 2011: Bitcoin geeks were carting their laptops to cafes to do p2ps
In 2013: suddenly it was centralised exchanges (no more geek meetups!)
In 2014: we got the very first insights into OTC -- and we were expecting it
In 2016: we encountered BISQ, a decentralised exchange -- so there were then three markets: CEXes, DEXes, and OTC
In 2017: Bitcoin futures were launched on two U.S. exchanges. These guys got deep pockets. These guys got an agenda. Best we understand more about this growing phenomenon.
moi -- please offer thoughts on and explanations of the Bitcoin and other cryptos' futures things. Guys, I'm sure it will be highly influential; but I don't understand the arithmetic of it.
In 2011: Bitcoin geeks were carting their laptops to cafes to do p2ps
In 2013: suddenly it was centralised exchanges (no more geek meetups!)
In 2014: we got the very first insights into OTC -- and we were expecting it
In 2016: we encountered BISQ, a decentralised exchange -- so there were then three markets: CEXes, DEXes, and OTC
In 2017: Bitcoin futures were launched on two U.S. exchanges. These guys got deep pockets. These guys got an agenda. Best we understand more about this growing phenomenon.
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On an individual coin/token level I would say yes. There are still plenty of shit coins, but there are a growing number of sophisticated projects out there.
'In short, banning crypto currencies means banning the internet and mathematics'
https://medium.com/@derAdmir/5-chal...eed-to-overcome-in-the-next-year-1a9c003aa67c
Long article, but a lot of information
https://medium.com/@derAdmir/5-chal...eed-to-overcome-in-the-next-year-1a9c003aa67c
Long article, but a lot of information
'But something can’t be the future indefinitely.'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2018/10/28/10-years-later-still-dont-know-bitcoin/
This article really is okay . . . for a pessimism piece. But the author overlooks a pivotal issue:
the notion of 'a decade old' is misleading. There have been three periods. One: the six years in which Bitcoin and a small number of other cryptos existed only in a tiny and highly specialised community. Two: the 'free for all' period, up to about mid-2017 during which cryptos had been discovered but governments had not launched The Big Push-Back. Three: the present era, about 18 months old, during which the herculean struggle (which is absolutely integral to growing authoritarianism in the world at large) between cryptos and the regulation thereof is underway.
So. sorta. in a way. Cryptos are brand new.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2018/10/28/10-years-later-still-dont-know-bitcoin/
This article really is okay . . . for a pessimism piece. But the author overlooks a pivotal issue:
the notion of 'a decade old' is misleading. There have been three periods. One: the six years in which Bitcoin and a small number of other cryptos existed only in a tiny and highly specialised community. Two: the 'free for all' period, up to about mid-2017 during which cryptos had been discovered but governments had not launched The Big Push-Back. Three: the present era, about 18 months old, during which the herculean struggle (which is absolutely integral to growing authoritarianism in the world at large) between cryptos and the regulation thereof is underway.
So. sorta. in a way. Cryptos are brand new.
SlyGuy
Active Member
There is no development phase. A bubble can occur with real assets or worthless ones. The "development" or "maturing" you hope for would require good underlying fundamentals. Bubbles like tech stocks or industry stocks or precious metals can, and usually will, rebound and eventually gain again (but typically after a looooong time of price depression). They rebound since their underlying assets hold commodity or earnings value, but other manias where the "asset" was worthless to begin with and the price ascent purely speculative always just end at $0. BitCoin is clearly the latter type.
Mania are predictable. The key thing to remember is that transaction fees clip the market daily. Those fees are the hidden tax that kills any investment that can't produce real value and maintain a growing long term demand:
1) Hype, news headlines and talk of the concept spreads, and pent-up demand develops. Exchanges and sellers spring up daily. Many people start to look and watch, but few buy.
2) People buy in as the demand is unleashed and the bubble goes up, up, up with a lot of new money flowing in. Volume is high and gets higher, but transaction fees barely matter since new money vastly outweighs them. Continued news and headlines of growth push many people into buying in this phase.
3) The volume starts to level off, and the smart money cashes out at (or before) that point. The sell-off crashes prices (transaction fees only further that). Volume still looks pretty high and some people "hang on for it to rebound," but this is obviously the danger zone.
4) Volume slows down drastically as people have either left with profits, cut their losses, or remained in holding as they pray for a rebound that isn't coming. Prices plateau and decline only slowly now.
5) The market eventually shuts down due to lack of transaction fees, or the people keep slowly leaving. This can take anywhere from weeks to years depending on the market item(s).
6) If the item had no quality fundamentals (tulips, fabricated stock shares in athletes, crypto, etc), the story ends at zero. If the item had fundamental value (silver, good tech companies with profitability, etc) and simply got way overvalued, then a prolonged price depression after the bubble peak with possible long term regrowth can eventually happen.
FWIW, I don't even have any idea what BitCoin or any crypto has for price or volume right now. I really don't need to. This story has repeated too many times in history, and since it is now in phase (4) above, I can tell you that BTC post-peak price is now slowly dropping and trading volume is slowing to a crawl. Am I wrong?
...BitCoin will go down in history as one of the best bubble/mania examples ever, but it is not coming back. Get something while you still can. All that happens now is the slow bleed to zero. Expect volume of trading to continue to fall, new buyers to decline faster than old owners exit, and for crypto trading platforms to slowly shut down as they can't make much profit with transaction fees anymore. If you think they were in it for the tech or belief in the concept, think again; they were in it for the volume and the profit all along... just like nearly every investor. Classic mania.
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early days for crypto, maybe you should go and look at price and volume before making sweeping statements.
why did barclays investment arm buy one of the biggest crypto exchanges if they dont make money? https://cointelegraph.com/news/cryp...d-by-belgian-investment-firm-in-all-cash-deal
maybe you could use some evidence to back up your statements? the amsterdam tulip mania example is getting very tired. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4132684-real-tulip-mania-looked-nothing-like-bitcoin
why did barclays investment arm buy one of the biggest crypto exchanges if they dont make money? https://cointelegraph.com/news/cryp...d-by-belgian-investment-firm-in-all-cash-deal
maybe you could use some evidence to back up your statements? the amsterdam tulip mania example is getting very tired. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4132684-real-tulip-mania-looked-nothing-like-bitcoin
The 'semi straw man' here is the argument that it's all mania. Here's the nitty gritty:
One: the technology works. Here is an example (My guys and I are doing this.): one crypto has transcation comments. We use Kleopatra PGP to encode texts. We run the encrypted text through a paste bin (which, for ease of explanation, makes the text short). We put the 'short' encrypted text in the tx-comments slot, and send it. Now, readers, this does not need to even involve the trading of the crypto in question. You could just as easily be trading bullion. What this provides is an effective monetary transfer and totally-off-the-radar 'email' combo.
Two: because of the technology -- international peer-to-peer transfers in seconds, etc., etc. -- cryptos have become a 'second front' of resistance to the GuvvyBank system. Thus, they are accorded value because of this function.
Pardon my frankness, SlyGuy; but why the animus? I don't shill on your site. I'm not spamming links to blah blah blah. The threads about cryptos were here when I turned up.
I recall when we jumped up and down with excitement every time a single new merchant announced crypto acceptance. Now we have banks and corporations and merchants and the ultra rich all steadily adopting. It really seems that cryptos aren't going away any time soon.
Perhaps it is best if I only respond directly to questions directed to me. Okay. But I'm notorious for polite and balanced discourse; been nose-to-the-screen at cryptos for 65 months; have offered to explain the tech; so . . . ?
One: the technology works. Here is an example (My guys and I are doing this.): one crypto has transcation comments. We use Kleopatra PGP to encode texts. We run the encrypted text through a paste bin (which, for ease of explanation, makes the text short). We put the 'short' encrypted text in the tx-comments slot, and send it. Now, readers, this does not need to even involve the trading of the crypto in question. You could just as easily be trading bullion. What this provides is an effective monetary transfer and totally-off-the-radar 'email' combo.
Two: because of the technology -- international peer-to-peer transfers in seconds, etc., etc. -- cryptos have become a 'second front' of resistance to the GuvvyBank system. Thus, they are accorded value because of this function.
Pardon my frankness, SlyGuy; but why the animus? I don't shill on your site. I'm not spamming links to blah blah blah. The threads about cryptos were here when I turned up.
I recall when we jumped up and down with excitement every time a single new merchant announced crypto acceptance. Now we have banks and corporations and merchants and the ultra rich all steadily adopting. It really seems that cryptos aren't going away any time soon.
Perhaps it is best if I only respond directly to questions directed to me. Okay. But I'm notorious for polite and balanced discourse; been nose-to-the-screen at cryptos for 65 months; have offered to explain the tech; so . . . ?
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May as well do a proper response to the post from @SlyGuy , both to acknowledge where he is correct and where he is wrong.
Firstly, he has pretty much outlined the classic stages in a bubble that we’re all familiar with. Nothing new there but neither is there anything contentious to debate, the question now being whether crypto is in a bubble or not. There are certainly signs that it may well have been but only time will tell.
Secondly, post-peak trading has indeed slowed to a crawl. Though once again if you dismiss the idea that crypto experienced a short-term mania and that it simply is but a repeat of previous manic periods of buying as has occurred in previous years, then the reason for the price decline cannot be simply explained as a result of entering SlyGuy’s stage 4.
So moving on from his correct calls onto his dodgy ones.
I’ve alluded to this in the post above. The fundamentals behind crypto are sound and as far as I’m aware they are the only product in the market that can meet the needs of players in that market seeking those fundamentals. Furthermore, these products are developing, new ideas and products are being delivered and developers have roadmaps that set out their future plans and goals.
I would suggest that if you’re not aware of the price or the volume of BTC then any opinion you’re offering may not be valid. For example, the price of BTC has now held at over USD6000 for the past 12 months. This happens to be higher than at any point from 2011 to the end of 2017.
Pure speculation.
That is his subjective assessment. It’s clear that he cannot possibly know the motives of all in the market.
Firstly, he has pretty much outlined the classic stages in a bubble that we’re all familiar with. Nothing new there but neither is there anything contentious to debate, the question now being whether crypto is in a bubble or not. There are certainly signs that it may well have been but only time will tell.
Secondly, post-peak trading has indeed slowed to a crawl. Though once again if you dismiss the idea that crypto experienced a short-term mania and that it simply is but a repeat of previous manic periods of buying as has occurred in previous years, then the reason for the price decline cannot be simply explained as a result of entering SlyGuy’s stage 4.
So moving on from his correct calls onto his dodgy ones.
SlyGuy said:
I’ve alluded to this in the post above. The fundamentals behind crypto are sound and as far as I’m aware they are the only product in the market that can meet the needs of players in that market seeking those fundamentals. Furthermore, these products are developing, new ideas and products are being delivered and developers have roadmaps that set out their future plans and goals.
SlyGuy said:
I would suggest that if you’re not aware of the price or the volume of BTC then any opinion you’re offering may not be valid. For example, the price of BTC has now held at over USD6000 for the past 12 months. This happens to be higher than at any point from 2011 to the end of 2017.
SlyGuy said:
Pure speculation.
SlyGuy said:
That is his subjective assessment. It’s clear that he cannot possibly know the motives of all in the market.
is ron paul considered main stream now?
http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archive...8/october/29/trump-is-right-the-fed-is-crazy/
http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archive...8/october/29/trump-is-right-the-fed-is-crazy/