Gullintanni said:
Hiya Placeholderz.
I hope for their sake you are right , but i fear it may be to late.
Many i know personally that bought in then have sold for the loss and just a few have stayed in pm's but they now buy and sell in the same manner as i do so they are not holding stuff for long unless it is free (ish).
It just blows me away looking at how much hype there was in 2011 and the few that sent out the warning were shot down.
I would love to post the forum name of one particular fella who was posting all the way up and down because he was SPOT ON.
He was buying large all the way upto $29 and then sold in 2 lots at $46 and $48 but was getting $50+ at that time.
He no longer posts as he was smashed by all the forum members for his luck/skill (not me by the way) and put his money into stocks.
I know it sounds like a fairy tale but all his post are dated and i certainly believe the stuff he wrote.
Just a shame that all the haters come down on him so hard when he said the run was over and they should get out while they were in the black.
They forum bulls would feed each other with tales of THIS TIME IT IS DIFFERENT and THE FUNDAMENTALS HAVE NOT CHANGED and all that other BS to support their flawed views.
I've only been a goldbug in the last 2 years and started stacking silver in the last month. I have 6 ounces of gold and 20 ounces of silver. I have invested some of my super in some juniors at around the peak of August last year, which is about the worst month to invest as things have gone down significantly since then. I have dollar-cost averaged in the last few months to smooth out the losses from the peak.
Still, I will stick to my convictions despite the wrong timing in the short term. I can see that I am similar to many of the gold and silver bugs who went FOMO (fear of missing out) around 2011. I became a gold bug at about the worst time of the "dead cat bounce" of mid 2016 and missed out on the lows of December 2016 as a result.
It doesn't faze me though. I use the same rationalisations (dollar cost average, can't time the peak and lows) to stack more. Luckily, I am but a regular Joe Blow who doesn't have a fortune to go "all in" and have to rely on my monthly paycheck for my purchases, so I don't "lose it all" on the peaks as I spread my purchases when my paycheck comes.
The point is I am strong in my convictions of the general fall in the world reserve currency which is the US dollar. This is why the dips don't worry me too much.
But I am also cognisant of the dangers in my theory.
The gold and silver bugs of 2011 didn't see the resolution of Bernanke to print. This is what killed them.
In my case, I can see that the US will be able to sustain the reserve status of the US dollar (and the world preferring it over gold or maybe even Yuan) because they have made new innovations in fracking and horizontal drilling.
I recognise that Saudi and the other big-reserve oil countries like Iran my start selling oil for gold (or already do in a little way) instead of US dollars.
But the USA, being the 10th largest oil reserve in the world, is capable of providing the market with $50 dollar a barrel and can keep a lid on Saudi's and Iran's capacity to sell their oil for gold. With fracking, the oil-buying nations of the world choice of buying US treasuries over gold over US will be justifiable as the US can provide some of the oil demand.
This is what I fear the most. That the US can provide enough oil and maintain the US dollar reserve status that it will deflate any attempts, by the China/Russia/Iran axis, to convert oil for gold.
This is also the reason Trump is making overtures to Putin. He's trying to convince Putin to abandon the oil-for-Yuan convertible to gold via the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Trump want Putin to keep buying US Treasuries. It's also why Hillary and Obama were vilifying him on the expectation of a Hillary victory. They were going to invade Russia to keep the petrodollar system if Hillary would have won. Trump is going the friendly course of lifting sanction for staying with the petrodollar system.
If overtures don't work, the US has a strong military capable of destabilising China and Saudi (but not Russia) to stop the oil-gold axis via the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
The US has a lot of experience destabilising economies who want out of the petrodollar system like Libya and Iraq. China, even with their power, is peanuts to the country that perfected economic hitman-ism.
But still, I am strong in my convictions. The breakup of the EU, a major world currency, is one justification I have for stacking gold in the future. The debt-to-GDP of Japan is another. The Chinese record debt is another. The coming implosion of Australian banks who have devoted a majority of their loan book to the real estate ponzi is another.
My feelings and convictions on the debasement of fiat is so strong that I continue to stack.
I can understand how 2011 "losers" have lost the passion for gold and silver and I know that I may join their ranks if the risks that I have listed come to fruition.
Still, this is a strong "gut feel" investment for me and I would hate myself more if I did not invest and gold shoots up to AUD$10,000 than if I continue stacking and gold falls to AUD$800/ounce.
This is why I will continue stacking at the end of the day.
I'm in it for the long haul. I will take the hit of the next 5 years if it need be and 2011 stackers should too.
