So price crept towards $21 = few weeks ago + $3. Any1 gettin' out?
- Thread starter Pirocco
- Start date
DoolBrevlis
Member
I wouldn't call it an investment strategy, at least not in my casePhiber said:
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Those that do, usually don't say.mmissinglink said:
At least not then.
Sometimes they DO say, some months later, when they proudly declare in some topic that they sold at $peak, or bought back in at $bottom.
Or when they say "IF <condition> THEN I'm back in.
Or when they show some 'For Sale!'.
Or, when some dealer suddenly has lotsa maples/ases/phils from 'various' years in 'circulated' condition.
Or, when you visit some auction sites and lotsa collections.
See, that 'long sad face', at what turns out to be a bottom price, sometimes is a jest too.
Just like the happy face, at what turns out to be a peak price, sometimes is a jest too.
That 'contrarian opinion' of you sometimes isn't even an opinion at all, because opinions are peoples thoughts, and when the mouth and the mind are in contradiction, that isn't really the case.
And hence this topic.
Where are the 'contrarian opinions' now?
Price is $3 higher.
Certainly better to sell than at basis of that +$3.
Where is the extra negativity folks? There should be $3 more of it!
Different price, different mind, happens alot, just look around!Eureka Moments said:I only bought a month ago pirocco because you said so.
Now you saying sell. Wish you'd make your mind up.
Or does that $2-3 not exceed dealers spreads?
See, that is also an important element, a dealers spread (sale price <> buy back price) means that the silver price has to increase more in order to chew out a profit.
Once that is exceeded, all the fingers move sync to the sell buttons.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Yesterdays Commitment of Traders report for silver futures:
24/06/2014 42987 $20.670
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 14676 Short 44349
SwapDealer Long 33976 Short 47200
ManagedMoney Long 42272 Short 17765
OtherReportables Long 11888 Short 7065
SmallTraders Long 25899 Short 14506 Net: 12332
10/06/2014 14322 $19.210
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 16368 Short 38078 Net: -21710
SwapDealer Long 40466 Short 33078 Net: 7388
ManagedMoney Long 35455 Short 39270 Net: -3815
OtherReportables Long 13137 Short 5216 Net: 7921
SmallTraders Long 25014 Short 14798 Net: 10216
Look at the increase from 14322 positions of 5000 ounces to 42987, the highest position since 12/02/2013 46797 $31.10.
That's the biggest single week increase I saw since I started monitoring this. And the end of day price of $20.67 was even lower than now.
So apparently, ALOT sold in this last weeks uptrend.
Ofcourse, nobody on this silverstackers forum sold! We only buy and buy and according to the spreaded sentiment, alot high and few low.
28665 x 5000 = 143 Moz. 14% of an annual worlds traded, traded in a single week. Yes, that's NET. Not like some others that use 'volume' to compare.
The price will only reflect these sales after the hedgers dumped these positions again.
It's not sure when they gonna dump it, for ex over 2009-early2011, they built up, and hung around, a similar sized position.
Of course, over that period, silver ETF's were buying big, something that is not the case now, so I doubt they will hold it long.
All time peak futures positions hover around 75000. That's still quite far away, but I doubt our good old neversellbuybackin folks will wait that long now.
See, others learn from experiences too!
Hang on!
24/06/2014 42987 $20.670
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 14676 Short 44349
SwapDealer Long 33976 Short 47200
ManagedMoney Long 42272 Short 17765
OtherReportables Long 11888 Short 7065
SmallTraders Long 25899 Short 14506 Net: 12332
10/06/2014 14322 $19.210
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 16368 Short 38078 Net: -21710
SwapDealer Long 40466 Short 33078 Net: 7388
ManagedMoney Long 35455 Short 39270 Net: -3815
OtherReportables Long 13137 Short 5216 Net: 7921
SmallTraders Long 25014 Short 14798 Net: 10216
Look at the increase from 14322 positions of 5000 ounces to 42987, the highest position since 12/02/2013 46797 $31.10.
That's the biggest single week increase I saw since I started monitoring this. And the end of day price of $20.67 was even lower than now.
So apparently, ALOT sold in this last weeks uptrend.
Ofcourse, nobody on this silverstackers forum sold! We only buy and buy and according to the spreaded sentiment, alot high and few low.
28665 x 5000 = 143 Moz. 14% of an annual worlds traded, traded in a single week. Yes, that's NET. Not like some others that use 'volume' to compare.
The price will only reflect these sales after the hedgers dumped these positions again.
It's not sure when they gonna dump it, for ex over 2009-early2011, they built up, and hung around, a similar sized position.
Of course, over that period, silver ETF's were buying big, something that is not the case now, so I doubt they will hold it long.
All time peak futures positions hover around 75000. That's still quite far away, but I doubt our good old neversellbuybackin folks will wait that long now.
See, others learn from experiences too!
Hang on!
mmissinglink
Active Member
Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't those figures for paper silver...not physical bullion being sold? Most stackers probably don't even own a single share of paper silver is my guess. So, probably those long sad faces of some of the stackers here have nothing to do with the paper silver market.
.
.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Btw gold same story.
Futures market position over-doubled in a single week. Also didn't see such fast changes before on the 5 years charts and according to an older chart also not in 2008:
The recent price uptrend made them freakin' gettin' out like lemmings!
Run! Run! Run!
And despite all the 'We keep stacking!' yells 'round:
http://www.usmint.gov/about_the_mint/index.cfm?action=PreciousMetals&type=bullion
Juni 2014, with its 2,372,000 ASE's, is as low as november last year, which also was the lowest of 2013 (december was lower but that is said to be due to end of sales of 2013 coins so a bad reference, which is confirmed by the peak january sales)
Gold doesn't show such a sales low.
For what US Mint sales figures are worth on a time basis, because in the end, only 'primary' dealers can order the bullion coins so it's not because these replenish their stocks, that it implies sales that month.
Maybe a question for dealers around: are monsterboxes common bullion ordered upon customers orders, or ahead, in (possible right/wrong) expectation of?
Or in another way: what is the average shelf life of a monsterbox?
And the Exchange-Traded 1000 ouncers Funds, biggest one Ishares:
2014/06/02 333,052,558.10 $18.81
2014/06/06 332,907,484.60 $19.01
2014/06/12 331,851,084.20 $19.50
2014/06/16 329,930,428.20 $19.54
2014/06/19 328,778,111.40 $20.73
2014/06/23 327,337,730.40 $20.78
2014/06/24 326,281,497.20 $20.67
2014/06/27 324,937,236.80 $20.87
They certainly like to sell at higher prices!
Take into account, all above is relatively short term. Ishares and US Mint few Moz drops are on the long term just a sneezing rottweiler.
Silver is now $10 lower than a fat year ago yet stocks barely dropped.
It's hard to find explanations for that $10 price drop. Silver Institutes 2013 data released last month also didn't show anything of the magnitude to expect. And annual coin sales, same, still 2011+ level. One would expect lower if the price drop was due to current silver owners selling to new silver buyers.
Coins & Bars in Moz (- just reflects net demand)
2004 -53.0
2005 -51.5
2006 -48.7
2007 -51.2
2008 -187.7
2009 -87.9
2010 -146.1
2011 -212.6
2012 -139.3
2013 -245.6
2013, with its $10 silver price drop, even was a record year sales.
And mining+recycling barely changed, even abit lower.
The $10 per ounce mysterious silver price drop of 2013!
Futures market position over-doubled in a single week. Also didn't see such fast changes before on the 5 years charts and according to an older chart also not in 2008:
The recent price uptrend made them freakin' gettin' out like lemmings!
Run! Run! Run!
And despite all the 'We keep stacking!' yells 'round:
http://www.usmint.gov/about_the_mint/index.cfm?action=PreciousMetals&type=bullion
Juni 2014, with its 2,372,000 ASE's, is as low as november last year, which also was the lowest of 2013 (december was lower but that is said to be due to end of sales of 2013 coins so a bad reference, which is confirmed by the peak january sales)
Gold doesn't show such a sales low.
For what US Mint sales figures are worth on a time basis, because in the end, only 'primary' dealers can order the bullion coins so it's not because these replenish their stocks, that it implies sales that month.
Maybe a question for dealers around: are monsterboxes common bullion ordered upon customers orders, or ahead, in (possible right/wrong) expectation of?
Or in another way: what is the average shelf life of a monsterbox?
And the Exchange-Traded 1000 ouncers Funds, biggest one Ishares:
2014/06/02 333,052,558.10 $18.81
2014/06/06 332,907,484.60 $19.01
2014/06/12 331,851,084.20 $19.50
2014/06/16 329,930,428.20 $19.54
2014/06/19 328,778,111.40 $20.73
2014/06/23 327,337,730.40 $20.78
2014/06/24 326,281,497.20 $20.67
2014/06/27 324,937,236.80 $20.87
They certainly like to sell at higher prices!
Take into account, all above is relatively short term. Ishares and US Mint few Moz drops are on the long term just a sneezing rottweiler.
Silver is now $10 lower than a fat year ago yet stocks barely dropped.
It's hard to find explanations for that $10 price drop. Silver Institutes 2013 data released last month also didn't show anything of the magnitude to expect. And annual coin sales, same, still 2011+ level. One would expect lower if the price drop was due to current silver owners selling to new silver buyers.
Coins & Bars in Moz (- just reflects net demand)
2004 -53.0
2005 -51.5
2006 -48.7
2007 -51.2
2008 -187.7
2009 -87.9
2010 -146.1
2011 -212.6
2012 -139.3
2013 -245.6
2013, with its $10 silver price drop, even was a record year sales.
And mining+recycling barely changed, even abit lower.
The $10 per ounce mysterious silver price drop of 2013!
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Pirocco said:The guys and girls with the IShares silver shares apparently consider it a better time to get out:
data ounces [end of day price]
2014/02/20 324,134,298.300
2014/02/24 326,635,134.700
2014/02/26 328,077,858.700
2014/03/03 326,923,758.700
2014/03/05 326,803,953.400 $21.21
2014/03/31 328,342,132.600
2014/04/02 328,196,210.500
2014/04/04 328,869,119.100 $19.955
2014/04/21 330,599,095.50 $19.27
2014/04/28 327,235,616.50 $19.50
2014/05/01 331,463,664.50 $18.96
2014/05/06 331,804,055.50 $19.64
2014/05/22 330,651,273.10 $19.4
2014/06/02 333,052,558.10 $18.81
2014/06/06 332,907,484.60 $19.01
2014/06/12 331,851,084.20 $19.50
2014/06/16 329,930,428.20 $19.54
2014/06/19 328,778,111.40 $20.73
2014/06/23 327,337,730.40 $20.78
2014/06/24 326,281,497.20 $20.67 <- low since march.
PS that's what is done, is more sure than what is said.
And the continued story:
2014/06/27 324,937,236.80 $20.87
2014/06/30 322,872,923.80 $21.03
2014/07/10 322,745,849.40 $21.42
2014/07/22 321,162,103.50 $20.86
2014/07/25 321,977,950.50 $20.745
2014/08/04 321,837,037.80 $20.14
2014/08/06 322,604,748.20 $20.03
2014/08/12 324,763,902.20 $19.98
2014/08/15 325,771,410.80 $19.55
2014/08/22 330,281,005.00 $19.395
2014/08/29 331,528,167.80 $19.46
2014/09/03 333,207,530.80 $19.21
2014/09/10 334,646,300.80 $18.94
2014/09/15 339,489,962.40 $18.70
2014/09/17 340,449,034.40 $18.51
2014/09/24 345,244,024.40 $17.55
2014/09/26 346,011,171.60 $17.66 <- highest I've monitored since april 2012 (previous high was 345 Moz, note that the entire 3 year fluctuation span is just 40 Moz so it doesn't mean as much to the price as their earlier one-direction accumulation of 300 Moz did)
The guys and girls with the IShares silver shares apparently consider it now a better time to get IN.
But remember, they thought the same back in march 2013, at $29.
Yet, on the shorter 3 months term, they do make better decisions than some others out there eheh!