Silver where do we go now?

AQ said:
G'Day All,

I'm new to the silver market.
By reading the posts above, am just wondering base on what do you guys forecast the market to dip rock bottom at $22 then rise to $40 by Christmas?
Click to expand...


Hi,

Being new tread carefully. Don't just jump in head first. This is a couple of posts in one thread. This is not the opinion of a huge number of posters. You have to buy where you feel comfortable. Take your time, read some stuff in the silver coin area, ask questions and educate yourself. We all reserve the right to be totally wrong :) There are technical reasons but we all see different things most of the time!!

If you've just discovered it your still looking at a decent price. There are guys who bought in at $45 and are having to really sit out and sweat at the moment.
 
Though I try to 'day trade' and pick each buying opportunity, any hard physical under $50 will return well in time to come

That I sure

What I don't know is how long 'time to come' is by the calendar
 
I think I saw bottom :p








1915_577022_412901308730006_314968658523272_1345720_130854934_n.jpg
 
I'm of the personal opinion that a PM investor should spread ones purchasing over a range of market prices. Not necessarily the lowest price, it's too hard too predict in a volatile market, but when the market dips around 20% from an average trading range. My purchasing range over three years is around $18-37 ozt & the average would be about $32. It's a relative representation of the average market value over the last three years. I've been opportunistic & always aim for the lowest margins. For me as a collector/hoarder the GSR is the kicker. Silver's comparatively/historically cheap right now compared to Gold. I don't fret too much over the paper value. That's controlled by the paper market. Just buy what you can afford in the dips & you can't go wrong in the long term.

As Warren Buffet says, "be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy."
 
AQ said:
G'Day All,

I'm new to the silver market.
By reading the posts above, am just wondering base on what do you guys forecast the market to dip rock bottom at $22 then rise to $40 by Christmas?
Click to expand...

No body knows what the future will bring, every statement like that is just conjecture based on personal hope and bias. But you can look at historical charts and interpret/project into the future. Some are more accurate than others, but if you accept the market is manipulated then it is hard to accept that technical analysis (that's what reading charts is called) has any reliability.

But here's a chart of the weekly silver price and you can see "strong support" around $26 with dips towards that price consistently "rejected". Support for $22 is harder to find but you can see a little pause in the chart around October '11.

852_silver_weekly.jpg


Gold Pelican made a good observation last week about the strength of the market using the RSI (Relative Strength Index) identifying that the current dip into the $26 range and subsequent rejection was while the "market was oversold". You can see that here in this daily chart with the RSI along the bottom. Notice how the dips into the $26 range occurs when the market is oversold (the line through at 30 on the RSI) and then rises as the market strength normalises.

852_rsi.jpg


The thing is, though, in the case of a monumental financial event in Europe or somewhere, no one really knows what will happen to the demand for silvers (RSI). In 2008 it fell and the price crashed all the way down to $8 from $16 or so, this time it may be different because so many asset classes are impaired and investors/savers may crowd into precious metals (to da moon) or they may not. No one knows and everyone is guessing. The best we can do is manage our own risk.

See: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$SILVER
 
I just brought 5kg at these prices. If the price falls to $25 (the very bottom IMO) it will not last long as Silver will be brought quickly and in big amounts which will bring the POS back to $30's.

I still give it 5 years for Silver to continue up. My biggest question is what would I do if POS hits $60 one day?
Could I wait or should I sell half my stack to take some profits and re-buy when it falls?????

I do see $60 silver in the future...... just wish it would come sooner than later...
 
Gold at $3000 will see Silver at $200 IMHO. It will get sucked along in the PM frenzy that's coming soon & return to the normal GSR.
 
Gino said:
AQ said:
G'Day All,

I'm new to the silver market.
By reading the posts above, am just wondering base on what do you guys forecast the market to dip rock bottom at $22 then rise to $40 by Christmas?
Click to expand...

No body knows what the future will bring, every statement like that is just conjecture based on personal hope and bias. But you can look at historical charts and interpret/project into the future. Some are more accurate than others, but if you accept the market is manipulated then it is hard to accept that technical analysis (that's what reading charts is called) has any reliability.

But here's a chart of the weekly silver price and you can see "strong support" around $26 with dips towards that price consistently "rejected". Support for $22 is harder to find but you can see a little pause in the chart around October '11.

http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/852_silver_weekly.jpg

Gold Pelican made a good observation last week about the strength of the market using the RSI (Relative Strength Index) identifying that the current dip into the $26 range and subsequent rejection was while the "market was oversold". You can see that here in this daily chart with the RSI along the bottom. Notice how the dips into the $26 range occurs when the market is oversold (the line through at 30 on the RSI) and then rises as the market strength normalises.

http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/852_rsi.jpg

The thing is, though, in the case of a monumental financial event in Europe or somewhere, no one really knows what will happen to the demand for silvers (RSI). In 2008 it fell and the price crashed all the way down to $8 from $16 or so, this time it may be different because so many asset classes are impaired and investors/savers may crowd into precious metals (to da moon) or they may not. No one knows and everyone is guessing. The best we can do is manage our own risk.

See: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$SILVER
Click to expand...

one way to look at the metals are productions costs

so if cost is higher then those people will just stop selling or making forward contracts below cost.
this will be temporary until the paper price go back up again, then there will be physical metal contracts again. :)
 
Gino said:
AQ said:
G'Day All,

I'm new to the silver market.
By reading the posts above, am just wondering base on what do you guys forecast the market to dip rock bottom at $22 then rise to $40 by Christmas?
Click to expand...

No body knows what the future will bring, every statement like that is just conjecture based on personal hope and bias. But you can look at historical charts and interpret/project into the future. Some are more accurate than others, but if you accept the market is manipulated then it is hard to accept that technical analysis (that's what reading charts is called) has any reliability.

But here's a chart of the weekly silver price and you can see "strong support" around $26 with dips towards that price consistently "rejected". Support for $22 is harder to find but you can see a little pause in the chart around October '11.

http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/852_silver_weekly.jpg

Gold Pelican made a good observation last week about the strength of the market using the RSI (Relative Strength Index) identifying that the current dip into the $26 range and subsequent rejection was while the "market was oversold". You can see that here in this daily chart with the RSI along the bottom. Notice how the dips into the $26 range occurs when the market is oversold (the line through at 30 on the RSI) and then rises as the market strength normalises.

http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/852_rsi.jpg

The thing is, though, in the case of a monumental financial event in Europe or somewhere, no one really knows what will happen to the demand for silvers (RSI). In 2008 it fell and the price crashed all the way down to $8 from $16 or so, this time it may be different because so many asset classes are impaired and investors/savers may crowd into precious metals (to da moon) or they may not. No one knows and everyone is guessing. The best we can do is manage our own risk.

See: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$SILVER
Click to expand...
Had to quote this as I could not thank twice :)
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xC7GMirXmfM[/youtube]
Start and end talk about charts worth a look IMHO
 
Very interesting posts from many of you guys.
So much to read and learn from all of you and so much more to thank for such great info that all of you have shared.
 
alor said:
looks like the last two days of low prices is passing us by :D
Click to expand...


Really? $27.87 and OpEx being served!! :lol:

I'm actually really hoping we get one last little bounce so I can get out. If we made it to even $30.50 I might make enough to pay for a roll of 1/2 oz dragons. But I'm losing heart, didn't pop with the market Monday :(
 
afternoon all,

"I still give it 5 years for Silver to continue up. My biggest question is what would I do if POS hits $60 one day?
Could I wait or should I sell half my stack to take some profits and re-buy when it falls????"


When to sell is only a problem if you haven't got a plan.

It is 'always' wise to take some money off the table before a top or just after preferably - but you must plan it before the emotion gets hold of you -------------- AND, stick with the plan.

Never regret leaving money on the table - as long as you stuck with the plan - call it a success. Remember, most people don't have a plan at all and fly by the boot straps - and usually end up crashing and burning.

By far and away a bigger problem is --------------------------- depending on what is happening at the time -----------

How to cash out? That depends on a number of circumstances.

1. State of the economy are we in a shtf situation or are we in reasonably normal times?
2. Whichever way does one a. cash out giving a cgt problem or b. trade out ? still giving one a legal cgt problem, but potentially maybe a few tricks up the sleeve
3. Whatever way 2. Goes ------------ what the hell do you then store the value in? In a shtf situation that is far from easy you might have to decide closer to the time to see what is valued. In more normal times cash may be the way to go, depends on tax laws, interest rates and whatever other opportunities are around at the time.

In short although the selling point is far harder a decision than the buy in point ------------ often the trouble has only just started. Welcome to being human, hopefully not in a crisis. :D

Don't despair - the future is unknown - but when you are in it a lot is more clear - you just make the best decisions at the time - so if that means selling some of your silver and buying the veggie garden next door - that's what you do. Your plan can change between now and then - but as long as it is a plan and not done on the run, all will be ok.

Have a great arvo

gazza
 
upandaway said:
alor said:
looks like the last two days of low prices is passing us by :D
Click to expand...


Really? $27.87 and OpEx being served!! :lol:

I'm actually really hoping we get one last little bounce so I can get out. If we made it to even $30.50 I might make enough to pay for a roll of 1/2 oz dragons. But I'm losing heart, didn't pop with the market Monday :(
Click to expand...


another day, one more dollar, we will be there :P 28.40 usd
 
gazzahere said:
afternoon all,

"I still give it 5 years for Silver to continue up. My biggest question is what would I do if POS hits $60 one day?
Could I wait or should I sell half my stack to take some profits and re-buy when it falls????"


When to sell is only a problem if you haven't got a plan.

It is 'always' wise to take some money off the table before a top or just after preferably - but you must plan it before the emotion gets hold of you -------------- AND, stick with the plan.

Never regret leaving money on the table - as long as you stuck with the plan - call it a success. Remember, most people don't have a plan at all and fly by the boot straps - and usually end up crashing and burning.

By far and away a bigger problem is --------------------------- depending on what is happening at the time -----------

How to cash out? That depends on a number of circumstances.

1. State of the economy are we in a shtf situation or are we in reasonably normal times?
2. Whichever way does one a. cash out giving a cgt problem or b. trade out ? still giving one a legal cgt problem, but potentially maybe a few tricks up the sleeve
3. Whatever way 2. Goes ------------ what the hell do you then store the value in? In a shtf situation that is far from easy you might have to decide closer to the time to see what is valued. In more normal times cash may be the way to go, depends on tax laws, interest rates and whatever other opportunities are around at the time.

In short although the selling point is far harder a decision than the buy in point ------------ often the trouble has only just started. Welcome to being human, hopefully not in a crisis. :D

Don't despair - the future is unknown - but when you are in it a lot is more clear - you just make the best decisions at the time - so if that means selling some of your silver and buying the veggie garden next door - that's what you do. Your plan can change between now and then - but as long as it is a plan and not done on the run, all will be ok.

Have a great arvo

gazza
Click to expand...


You make some very valid points.
Am waiting for my first small stack I ordered to arrive.
Can hardly wait.
MMMmm! I can see stacking silver can become very addictive.

Have had the finger on the trigger for another purchase over the last couple of days but decided to wait to see if silver was going to get hit further.
As i plan on stacking over the medium to long term it won't make that much difference to me. Imho given the current global financial mess unravelling,
the risk in not having more silver now as opposed to waiting for a lower entry point is a far greater risk. Considering spot is under $30 oz seems a pretty good deal to be hoarding. If it goes down further, so be it. Buy more.

Cheers markcoinoz
 
the price is now in my courts :D
And as Ted Butler pointed out in his two paragraphs in today's column, we are in "no-man's land" price wise, with the critical moving averages well above current prices, so the technical funds will be mostly M.I.A. until we break through them...starting with the 20-day m.a...and then the 50-day. So the bullion banks and their cohorts can do pretty much as they please...and they are.

But unless they are able to engineer the prices in both gold and silver lower than they were about a week ago, they are not going to get any renewed spec long selling...or fresh shorting. The only food supply for 'da boyz' right now are the new spec long positions that were placed since last week's low, and that wouldn't amount to a hill of beans.

The other thing going on at the moment is that we're coming up hard on the June delivery month...which is a big delivery month for gold. It's pretty normal at this time for JPMorgan et al to flush out all the weak spec longs prior to first notice day, and that is probably part of what's going on now. I'm not sure whether we have options and futures expiry on the Comex late this week or early next week, but I expect the selling pressure to continue unabated until then. Of course I'd love to be proved wrong.
Click to expand...
 
Hey I'm with you short term Alor. Go silver go!!!

I'll start sweating at just under the 20 DMA :) please please silver get to $30. I knew it was risky buying counter trend for a quick bounce..... taken years off me it has :mad:
 
Sultan Pepper said:
Silver will drop $1-2 in the next 48 hours as I have just finalised a purchase
Click to expand...

Hope that will be the case as im gonna lay my hands on some by tomorrow :D
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top