Silver under $25 AU again. Is stacking starting to SUCK ?

[Stoic Phoenix]

Investors invest, and stackers stack. Don't confuse the two.

Good point but in PM's the line between the two is very blurry.
If a stacker only stacks then not many fit the bill on this forum.
How many can put their hand up and say they have never sold any of their stack? Im guessing less than 1 in 20.

 

[Skyrocket]

Us stackers will have our day......sooner rather then later!

Just make sure you sell it when high and not watch it drop below $US10 again

Next bull market will be a looong one and I bet we will never see $10USD silver again. Maybe never see sub $20 (after end of next bull market) again either because there is less and less of it around.

 

[Skyrocket]

A nice convergence happening.

Can someone please explain why a convergence like this means the price will go higher?

Watch the video and wait a week or two to see if it does soar.

 

[silversearcher]

Investors invest, and stackers stack. Don't confuse the two.

Just another clich Sammy. At the the end of day you buy a precious metals in the hope that either

1. Keeps up with inflation so it's a form saving ( not a deflationary savings )
2, A form of investment that in hope it makes a gain after premium break even point.
3- A safe haven in times of economic turmoil. And for those who think they can swap out 1 0z of silver for a loaf of bread in a depression may be quickly told where to shove their 1 of oz silver.

If it's just a stack with no intention to sell, then it's a stack of useless metal, best call it a coin collection. Which serves no purpose than just fondling with it and have a feeling you have some form of wealth. All good if precious metal prices go up. But a constant plateau is absolutely bad news. For those who are constantly wheeling and dealing in precious metals will not like this rhetoric and that's why there is thousand Mike Maloney's and true believers that think precious metals is the silver bullet. But for the average working stiff that has a eye that precious metals has potential, the last 4 years proves that this has not been the case. And that has been the case of many other forms of savings or investments. I'm not saying I'm never going to buy precious metals, but I have heard all too often the catch phrase " IT'S A GOOD TIME TO BUY" , it was also a good time to buy in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. Let's hear a few more say it's a good time to sell......But it has been very quite on that front for along time.

 

[randomname]

It's been dirt cheap for nearly 4 years and in another 4 it will still be dirt cheap if this continues.

Good. The hand that tries to keep the door tightly closed (to protect the fraudulent fiat currency system) also keeps the door ajar. Another 4 years to get things into better shape would be just magic! Bring it on.

People should be aware of the situation in precious metals markets before they buy, and be prepared to stick it out for the long term if necessary. I reckon it'll probably outperform most if not all other investment types over the coming years or decades.

 

[SilverDJ]

For those who are constantly wheeling and dealing in precious metals will not like this rhetoric and that's why there is thousand Mike Maloney's and true believers that think precious metals is the silver bullet. But for the average working stiff that has a eye that precious metals has potential, the last 4 years proves that this has not been the case.

4 years?
People conveniently forget the 20 years that silver did absolutely nothing from 1984 to 2005.

 

[ghost rider]

I just picked up another 100 oz.
make that 200 oz

 

[finicky]

Silver revolts me, but you're getting your pants in a knot if you're concerned by a couple of months of set-back. I've been waiting for more than 13 years!
Recently it tapped A$26 again and that's the critical level if you look at a past peak and completion of a rounding bottom
Soon I suspect it'll be back at $26 again, then break through, then could accelerate.
A watched pot never boils.

This is not a sideways chart

Australian $ physical silver backed ETF
5 Year weekly closing prices
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_big_26.gif]

[/imgz]

 

[sammysilver]

Investors invest, and stackers stack. Don't confuse the two.

Just another clich Sammy. At the the end of day you buy a precious metals in the hope that either

1. Keeps up with inflation so it's a form saving ( not a deflationary savings )
2, A form of investment that in hope it makes a gain after premium break even point.
3- A safe haven in times of economic turmoil. And for those who think they can swap out 1 0z of silver for a loaf of bread in a depression may be quickly told where to shove their 1 of oz silver.

If it's just a stack with no intention to sell, then it's a stack of useless metal, best call it a coin collection. Which serves no purpose than just fondling with it and have a feeling you have some form of wealth. All good if precious metal prices go up. But a constant plateau is absolutely bad news. For those who are constantly wheeling and dealing in precious metals will not like this rhetoric and that's why there is thousand Mike Maloney's and true believers that think precious metals is the silver bullet. But for the average working stiff that has a eye that precious metals has potential, the last 4 years proves that this has not been the case. And that has been the case of many other forms of savings or investments. I'm not saying I'm never going to buy precious metals, but I have heard all too often the catch phrase " IT'S A GOOD TIME TO BUY" , it was also a good time to buy in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. Let's hear a few more say it's a good time to sell......But it has been very quite on that front for along time.

I avoid cliches like the plague.
I don't understand your an angst. Silver was Sub $20 at the start of the year, at $25, it represents a 25% return.

 

[Court Jester]

Once again Silver spot price has managed to duck under $25 again. For many years bullion has just flat lined. As Court Jester says ---------------SIDEWAYS ! And that is not too far from the truth. Taking into account the high premiums it will take some time for long term investors to make any return. At the moment there is more chance of breathing life into a rotting corpse than seeing a real move in precious metals. In a totally rigged market the only winners are - The dealers, The marketeers and the odd mine / refiner. For the stacker the forecast is looking pretty gloomy ! For those who are are just using hard earned savings without a plan to combat the premiums, you would be better to put that money in a sock. If you were to cash in on the last 3 to 4 years of your stack the losses would be colossal due to the premiums. But worse than that, the money we add to compulsory retirement plans will also be squandered, as it filters into the bogus stock market. So don't expect a cent returned there either, as Governments deliberately lift retirement ages to avoid you accessing it. Yep, it looks as if all bases have been covered to royally screw you over. And who would have thought that bullion considered to be a safe haven in tough times would ever be affected ? But in a totally rigged world it appears that it has also.

Yep

<=========sideways==============>

 

[Court Jester]

It's been dirt cheap for nearly 4 years and in another 4 it will still be dirt cheap if this continues.

Good. The hand that tries to keep the door tightly closed (to protect the fraudulent fiat currency system) also keeps the door ajar. Another 4 years to get things into better shape would be just magic! Bring it on.

People should be aware of the situation in precious metals markets before they buy, and be prepared to stick it out for the long term if necessary. I reckon it'll probably outperform most if not all other investment types over the coming years or decades.

it simply has not over decades out performed many other asset classes

that is fact.

It is a good forced savings measure and hedge against inflation not the best of investments however espically if you need to flip a lot of physical in a hurry.

 

[mmissinglink]

The price and market value of silver, just like all commodities, is mostly supply-demand driven. That's not to say that there aren't other factors that may have some affect on the price of silver but there certainly is no shortage of silver in the world.





.

 

[blackcats]

The cheaper the better, one man's trash is another man's treasure. Silver is like art, or guitars, I know what I like and what has value and meaning to me. Fiat currency isn't worth the paper (plastic) its printed on, therefore for me converting as mush as possible into "real stuff" (with no third party risk) is how I think. Cheers

 

[randomname]

it simply has not over decades out performed many other asset classes

that is fact.

Well, that really depends on when you purchased doesn't it? Some may have done well, others badly. Same for the property or stock markets.

But now the financial situation around the entire world is very different than it has been for the previous few decades. The decades of boom based on ever increasing debt and high EROI (energy returned on (energy) invested) appears to be coming to a big bust. PMs are always a store of value in times of trouble, and that value has been deliberately kept down to hide the trouble - it's now potentially like a coiled spring. I surmise even Stevie Wonder can see the freight train of economic chaos heading our way.

The only way I can see precious metals to not reach very high levels in the coming years/decade is if the economic crisis is so huge that most people are literally wiped out and few people have anything left to move into the safe haven, wealth preservation assets like gold and silver.

 

[silversearcher]

Investors invest, and stackers stack. Don't confuse the two.

Just another clich Sammy. At the the end of day you buy a precious metals in the hope that either

1. Keeps up with inflation so it's a form saving ( not a deflationary savings )
2, A form of investment that in hope it makes a gain after premium break even point.
3- A safe haven in times of economic turmoil. And for those who think they can swap out 1 0z of silver for a loaf of bread in a depression may be quickly told where to shove their 1 of oz silver.

If it's just a stack with no intention to sell, then it's a stack of useless metal, best call it a coin collection. Which serves no purpose than just fondling with it and have a feeling you have some form of wealth. All good if precious metal prices go up. But a constant plateau is absolutely bad news. For those who are constantly wheeling and dealing in precious metals will not like this rhetoric and that's why there is thousand Mike Maloney's and true believers that think precious metals is the silver bullet. But for the average working stiff that has a eye that precious metals has potential, the last 4 years proves that this has not been the case. And that has been the case of many other forms of savings or investments. I'm not saying I'm never going to buy precious metals, but I have heard all too often the catch phrase " IT'S A GOOD TIME TO BUY" , it was also a good time to buy in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. Let's hear a few more say it's a good time to sell......But it has been very quite on that front for along time.

I avoid cliches like the plague.
I don't understand your an angst. Silver was Sub $20 at the start of the year, at $25, it represents a 25% return.

Probably not so much angst, but it is beginning to suck. The spot price is not accurate price on return as you have to take the premium into account. And that premium can float even if are buying the same bullion. Of course one member shows a 20 year lull and that would really suck. Hope we are not in the first quarter of another 20 year lull. Court Jester certainly would be justified.

 

[Court Jester]

it simply has not over decades out performed many other asset classes

that is fact.

Well, that really depends on when you purchased doesn't it? Some may have done well, others badly. Same for the property or stock markets.

But now the financial situation around the entire world is very different than it has been for the previous few decades. The decades of boom based on ever increasing debt and high EROI (energy returned on (energy) invested) appears to be coming to a big bust. PMs are always a store of value in times of trouble, and that value has been deliberately kept down to hide the trouble - it's now potentially like a coiled spring. I surmise even Stevie Wonder can see the freight train of economic chaos heading our way.

The only way I can see precious metals to not reach very high levels in the coming years/decade is if the economic crisis is so huge that most people are literally wiped out and few people have anything left to move into the safe haven, wealth preservation assets like gold and silver.

yes it does depend on when you bought in and when you sell like any investment but the point / statement was over decades. from the 90's to now physical silver has been a poor investment unless you managed to sell at the very (short) peak in 2011.

If in the 90's you bought $100k in silver vs If you bought a house in any capital city in australia(even higer returns if it was Sydney or Melbourne) and rented it out over teh same period you are far far far ahead today in real $$$ investing in that house.

The same is true of stocks, even IF you managed to sell at the 2011 peak you are STILL behind in real $$ terms.

could always cherry pick the data and compare house prices in sydney and melbourne vs Silver price from 2011 onwards to see which over the last 5 years was the better investment but I wouldnt do that now.

 

[silversearcher]

There are two different camps when reading these posts. Seems to be those who stack, sell, wheel and deal and build more to their stack. And those who just stack for a planned return on their investment / savings minus the wheeling and dealing. Those who ultimately who are the " wheelers and dealers" will always put a good spin on precious metals regardless. And why not ! As they take certain initiatives and single mindedness to built their bullion stack. As for Joe Blow (the majority ) who just tucks some money aside and buys a regular amount of silver to put away for a rainy day, he may be better to hold on to cash or look into over investments. I think with the 15 -30 percent premiums and sometimes more it would take a long time to recoup a reasonable return, particularly in a deflationary environment. However, gold has a lower premium base and for me or for others a switch into more gold may have more benefits. Yes $26 AU does appear to be breakout point, but if it goes down below the $25 territory and heads back into the $23 territory there may be more pain for some, but another buying opportunity for others. But so far Court Jester is right in saying <--------------------------------------------------------- SIDEWAYS ---------------------------------------------------------> And I suspect in 12 months time he will still be saying the same. I do agree with Space Pete that, " silver won't help if we are free falling towards Armageddon "........

 

[Noxx]

I've been waiting since 2008. First time I really even thought of gold or silver. Was kicking myself I missed the cheap prices. But thought no way I'd buy at twice the price or so then. Definitely no way I'd buy at 4-10 times the price we had the years after. I think it's crazy all you guys that jumped in at those price. After all these years of waiting I saw it finally hit $14 or so and it was looking good. Even then I still think it's honestly going to hit $10 or less. It's still on a downward roll. Like anything you get brief spikes on downward motion. I feel that is what the recent $20 is. And now it's at $19 and heading to a lower valley than the last $14. Maybe $12. We are at the lowest interest rates in history. We have probably 10 years or more of rising interest rates and money chasing after the returns of that interest rate. So I feel after the bottom and maybe some brief spikes it will keep slowly sliding for years to new lows as that money chases interest gains and the price of silver and gold is pushed down.

However these days I have more money. And I'm tired of waiting. Yeah I wish I bought at $14 but that's fine. I feel we'll see it again and lower. I want to diversify, want some different back up and want to do long term investing/saving. So I started buying up small amounts around $20 and will ramp up as it drives down. This is a long term play. I fully expect to keep most of it for decades or till retirement. But always at least have some as a hedge. The thing is also that I learned from watching and buying stocks is it's easy to miss a bottom and then it's to late. So it's a good idea to buy small amounts and ramp up as it get's lower. Have a lot on the sidelines ready in case it hits a major low. The stuff I bought somewhat higher is fine, at least it wasn't in the stratosphere price range. I believe things are different now than they were before too. We really are running out of silver and it is going to get harder to find and dig up at some point, and industry will use it up eventually. That's within our lifetime. And at some point it will come quick, there will be a massive spike up that will never come down again. I really believe we'll see 10- 100 times price by the time I'm ready to retire. Yeah if you bought up tons of silver higher up that's rough. But you should welcome every drop because hopefully you should still have a lot of money waiting to buy up on new lows. If you don't then, well, you need to just wait it out and figure on a decade or more, be thinking more long term. Stop stressing now from month to month. The price now is going to be a drop in the bucket some day. But you're going to feel the pain if you worry now as it drops.

Even then though you have no idea how much easier it is to watch silver drop than stocks. We could all be in stocks that keeps dropping. With silver and gold at least it won't go to zero. Stocks go to zero and companies bankrupt all the time. I watched people lose life savings from enron and such. You can't wait that stuff out. It's just gone forever. Not so with gold and silver. Just have patience. Keep money on the sidelines. Ramp up at new lows. Eventually it will pay off. Even if it stays low for decades at least you can keep buying more and leverage down with every bit you buy. At some point it will pop. Always diversify though. In all things. You should have your money spread out in different areas. And be taking advantage of all the different cycles of each. I do the same with oil stocks and I'm up a lot on that but you also have to think long term and sometimes sit through the pain when it's lower. I'm going to buy some slvr paper ETF's too, not as much as the physical but it's great for when it hits a huge low and you can buy lots and sell lots very fast. So have some money on the sidelines so you always think positive about new lows.

 

[Miser]

My 401(k) index fund has been stagnant for the last few years also. I stack silver as a storehouse for wealth. I do not eye very close its monthly or annual price fluctuations. Sure, there is always a possibility that it might worth less over the long run, but as I lost all of my faith in fiat currency, I still believe it is a very wise investment. Could I be wrong? Sure. I have no crystal ball.

I have picked my path and if I ever feel the wisdom in abandoning it, I will. But so far, I am pleased about my long term prospects.

 

[Gullintanni]

it simply has not over decades out performed many other asset classes

that is fact.

It is a good forced savings measure and hedge against inflation not the best of investments however espically if you need to flip a lot of physical in a hurry.

Just out of interest what would have been good returns?
In 1998 silver $5 an OZT then 2008 it was $10 and id bet in 2018 itll be $20 an OZT (all USD).

EDIT: Not having a dig Jester , just genuinely curious.
I agree with you with the sideways over the last few years , but that is just the last few years.
To me it looks a wee bit like property prices over the decades.............................................Property always seems to go up in the long term yet from a single decade to the next the rises seem small and it is not until you look back at prices from 30 years ago that you can see the massive gains.
I am glad i pick 30 years and not 35 or my view would have been fascicle as we all know where silver was 36 years ago.
I think over 30 years anyone stacking will not lose money and more than likely keep ahead of inflation as long as they have not bought on the HIGHS .
Either way i am a flipper so i make money regardless and it is a fun way to put away a nest egg.