Silver stacking are we nuts?

[alor]

Silver stacking is no nuts, if you ever consider stacking gold, that is nuts!


why?

gold has heavy backers, buying it....and the supply side is very much in control slowly letting it go and
this will not give you a better bargain! and since the volatility is half of that of silver, your chances to get better bargain remains in SILVER.

silver is a better way to go and chances are you are twice as likely to get it right, you are the real nuts for not looking at it and pounding your fiat on it :lol:

 

[errol43]

In my opinion we have all missed the bull run in silver...That is except the ones that were stacking silver around the year 2000 when silver was $4/5 oz. or way back in the pre 80's.. Buying silver at $4oz only seeing it go to $20, $30. $40, $50, $40, and now $31.. What profits were there for the takings for people who bought silver in 2000.. I was not one of them!

What do I expect for the future of my silver stacking? Buying in the range of $15 to $40 and now back to 40, all I can expect is to have an investment that I hope will never go to zero.

Will I make a fortune? I don't think so, for silver would have to go to $200oz+ but would prices do if the fiat system collapses? UP UP UP!

The best scenario for most here on SS is for the price of houses to drop 40% and silver prices to go up 200%..Will this happen? Maybe!

Will there be another bull run in Silver and would you be able to take advantage of it?

It was a lot easier financially in 2000 to acquire 1000ozs silver in fiat terms, $5000 compared to $32000 today. In the long term of the fiat value of silver rises 10%pa, you are ahead of the fiat saver.

Are we nuts? No, we are Moran Monkeys and crazy apes!

Regards Errol 43

Edited for this monkey couldn't spell his own name properly.

 

[ermat]

A cheap rental. Here in Australia we have a glut of rental homes owned by greedy dreamers who think they are going to make a fortune out of real estate.

where is this so called glut? not in Sydney.

Just have a look at the weekends and you'll see ques outside rental properties 50m long 3 deep - glut? there ain't no glut. Unless you want to live out in Penrith I suppose.

MELBOURNE

 

[Pirocco]

Another question to bring up is what the difference is between a "bull run" and an inflationbased trend. Silvers price hung around the same for 2 decades, despite other stuff becoming more expensive. House prices quadrupled (+300%) during that time.
The reason that silvers didnt show significant increases was the gradual selling of all big / centralized stocks. Around 2000 mines closed because it ceased to be profitable, which after 2008 reopened due to the higher prices and thus the return of the profitability (Sprott has a participation in one of those closed&reopened mines).
Since 2008, some central stocks were built up again (ETF's), but I think alot shareholders are average joe, that use it like a silver bank account that is easier than safes/insurance/sales tax/premiums etc. So they might stay for years/decades.
Also, in order to make this crisis pass, there are two roads:
- producing population part manages again to produce more at the same cost (larger scale / bigger machines / more efficiency / faster working / new technology / etc).
- governments revert what they did in the past decades.
If I look at todays production level, and the ever growing state intervention level, both roads appear closed to me.

Those that 'wake up and take action' during a crisis phase (alike me) are always too late to undo the involved inflation wave.
But all it needs is a hold firm and a wait for a next phase.
Because getting out again means a very high risk of being frontrunned in the buying back in. Once again.
Look at those that held in 2007-early2088 at $20. Later on they had a chance to sell at $50, several chances to sell at $40, even more chances to sell at $35 and years to sell at $30. Despite they ALSO saw $9.
During the past couple years, we saw people repeatedly selling at sub $30. Includinbg this summer, even at $27. Everytime later on, they could have sold at 25% more.
It's clear that alot became wiser, and recently sold at $32-35. But what if the futures markets systemic entities decide to just hold their positions for a longer while than we got used to in recent years? In the end, that's what they did during 2009-2010. What if it was their goal to make people selling in the hope to once again buy back in lower? Then the Comex Club ends up in a frontrunned position without doing a thing. And all those stackers that sold in the hope to buy more silver later, sitting in doubt, with a pile dollars they want to swap for more silver, facing the choice between keeping the dollars and LESS silver.
It is possible that we see lower twenties. But I won't risk a sale+buy back in. For this and 12 other reasons.

 

[Henry Wartooth]

I don't see PMs as a way to make profit...I think of it as a traditional way of hedging against inflation during uncertain times. Many people who lived through the Great Depression still hoarded cash and silver because they no longer trusted the banks or government with their wealth.

I wouldn't say it's "nuts". I'd say it's just unfashionable.

 

[Photonaware]

PMs for me is the alternative to cash in the bank.
Fiat doesn't grow right now as interest rates are so low and tax eats into whatever small gain there is. Fiat is not even keeping pace with inflation. Gold and silver however on average and over time theoretically should at worse retain real purchasing power but more likely to increase in value for many reasons, not least more people buying the stuff. The serious investor knows about risk and probably limits PMs to 10 or at most 20 percent of a portfolio. More than this is truly gambling so go to Vegas and learn to play craps.

 

[Cinvalo]

I came into silver stacking and have made a lot of serious shifts in my finiancial life, after watching Mike Maloney's Debt Collapse, it made sense, I also saw claims of silver going "through the roof" by numerous commentators, Robert Kioaski, brotherjohn, Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff etc.
Then last night I watched silver debunked on youtube, the stats given make me question what I am doing, ie 53% industry, 13% photo, 24% jewellery, 7% coin and a whopping 3% investment! If the debt collapse is going to occur, how is 3% of the market going to send the price of silver "through the roof"? Are we all on the wrong train? And one more thing that puzzles me brotherjohn makes great analyses of graphs of silver trading, but if the markets are manipulated, what's the point as the data is corrupted? :/

The true investment demand is not really reflected in the demand and supply statistic. Total silver supply in 2011(scrap + mining) is equal to 1 billion ounce and total demand is roughtly the same. That means the reserve is low. Government inventory as in 2008 is less than 400 million ounce. In Comex future trading, the total volume traded is 182 times the silver supply in 2011. Yes i know it is insane. J.P.Morgan short position in silver is 33805 contracts. This are the real investment demand.
These are some of the reasons why you are on the right train.

 

[GiLa]

I've got a saying "If you do things normally, you can only achieve normal things!"

 

[greyman68]

If you think it is nuts to stack Silver, send me your silver in exchange for fiat, then you can put your money in the bank, and I will store my silver and in 15 years time see who is happier. Bet you a kilo it is me.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

PMs for me is the alternative to cash in the bank.
Fiat doesn't grow right now as interest rates are so low and tax eats into whatever small gain there is. Fiat is not even keeping pace with inflation. Gold and silver however on average and over time theoretically should at worse retain real purchasing power but more likely to increase in value for many reasons, not least more people buying the stuff. The serious investor knows about risk and probably limits PMs to 10 or at most 20 percent of a portfolio. More than this is truly gambling so go to Vegas and learn to play craps.

Keeping fiat is a losing game yet you would only hold 10% to 20% of PM's in a portfolio? What do you hold for the other 80% - 90% photon?

 

[Ernster]

Either go big or go home I say....

Obviously it depends on how much overall wealth you have, your age, situation. Those who are setup don't need to invest so much.

However for the ones who got brainwashed to finish school + uni or "you won't become anything" and for us that missed on cashing on the real estate bubble, we are almost forced to take a gamble to survive. I say "almost" because I still believe we have to take responsibility for our decisions and situation, so I'm not crying sour grapes, but it sure is tough out there. Housing prices being the key problem.

 

[petey]

Either go big or go home I say....

Obviously it depends on how much overall wealth you have, your age, situation. Those who are setup don't need to invest so much.

However for the ones who got brainwashed to finish school + uni or "you won't become anything" and for us that missed on cashing on the real estate bubble, we are almost forced to take a gamble to survive. I say "almost" because I still believe we have to take responsibility for our decisions and situation, so I'm not crying sour grapes, but it sure is tough out there. Housing prices being the key problem.

Yep - does make it tricky. Do you save in PMs and hope that if/when you want to buy a house the price is right at that time? Like everyone says, PM's are liquid, but that is during a fire sale. What if you buy "high" (now), and want to sell up in 2 years - while in theory the average price has appreciated, we've seen enough smackdowns/volatility to know that you may not be getting that average higher price...

 

[Henry Wartooth]

Keeping fiat is a losing game yet you would only hold 10% to 20% of PM's in a portfolio? What do you hold for the other 80% - 90% photon?

This is something I've thought about too. What else classifies as a sound mid to long term investment right now? Nothing really.

 

[Phiber]

There are only so many asset classes one can invest in unfortunalty. I see the following:

- PM
- real estate
- stocks (and all the products linked to it)
- Bonds
- cash
- direct investment in a business (owning a business)
- ?

Out of these I have a strong preference for the stuff that can't evaporate overnight: PMs (physical) and real estate.
I don't see anything much better out there personally... But keen to hear your thoughts!

 

[grinners]

The serious investor knows about risk and probably limits PMs to 10 or at most 20 percent of a portfolio. More than this is truly gambling so go to Vegas and learn to play craps.

So 25% gold, 25% cash, 25% property, 25% stocks would be gambling?

 

[Ernster]

Yep - does make it tricky. Do you save in PMs and hope that if/when you want to buy a house the price is right at that time? Like everyone says, PM's are liquid, but that is during a fire sale. What if you buy "high" (now), and want to sell up in 2 years - while in theory the average price has appreciated, we've seen enough smackdowns/volatility to know that you may not be getting that average higher price...

Yes thats the plan at the moment. I dont know though, depends on the situation at the time. I may find another investment to park my silver profits and buy a home a bit longer than originally planned. I think if home prices have a crash it's going to take a lot longer than 2 years for prices to recover.

 

[Adrian23]

Well we all have to make a decision on what we want to do. For me PM is better than cash, real estate etc. l can't blow it when l want a new toy, relatively speaking it will go up, its easier to sell an amount of PM then to try and chop a room off the house when l need to liquidate. Shares are liable to do anything, ie Austero as an example over the last few days. For me PM will be the choice for a while.

 

[JoelAG]

Yep - does make it tricky. Do you save in PMs and hope that if/when you want to buy a house the price is right at that time? Like everyone says, PM's are liquid, but that is during a fire sale. What if you buy "high" (now), and want to sell up in 2 years - while in theory the average price has appreciated, we've seen enough smackdowns/volatility to know that you may not be getting that average higher price...

That's how I am playing it. The silver will be stacked and left alone. Only if I need the FIAT to buy something would I cash it out, and the FIAT savings will go before the stack does. It would be very interesting if we saw another huge spike and then a decline. Would I sell the stack for FIAT if I didn't have somewhere to put it?

- Governments force society to become cashless and that everything had to be electronic (big brother?)

I see this as a real possibility. There are some interesting "wins" if this is done, no more street muggings for cash (or a drag to the ATM), no more cash sales that can't be taxed. I would guess that 90% of all my life is electronic now anyway. But if the US were to completely legalize marijuana and got rid of currency, they would do some serious damage to the drug trade (I wonder if dealers would take silver...). The Govt could make quite a bit taxing legal mary jane and its not like there are that many opportunities out there to make money for zero work on their end.

I bet a vast majority of the population would not miss hard currency as cash at all. Of course once it goes, I really could see silver becoming the new under-the-table currency for the everyday man.

Things to think about.