Silver price

[jerrygold]

According to this :-
https://www.statista.com/statistics/253293/global-gold-production-since-2005/

In 2016 more than 23 million kilos of silver was mined and 4 million kilos of silver was produced from scrap.

About 60% of this went to industry like solar panels and electronics, leaving 40% in jewelery and coins/bars.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/253345/global-silver-demand-by-purpose/

There is an ever increasing industrial need for silver which will likely see more of a shift towards industrial use over coins/bars. However there is still a lot of silver added to the market year on year in forms that silver hoarders buy.

It is hard to see how this won't have a positive impact on silver price, does anyone have a counter argument?

 

[whay]

If physical silver demand affect price, we will all be rich.

 

[jerrygold]

If physical silver demand affect price, we will all be rich.

So you feel like the market is being manipulated then? How long can that continue in your opinion?

 

[wrcmad]

There is an ever increasing industrial need for silver which will likely see more of a shift towards industrial use over coins/bars. However there is still a lot of silver added to the market year on year in forms that silver hoarders buy.

It is hard to see how this won't have a positive impact on silver price, does anyone have a counter argument?

Big assumption.
You are assuming the current technology remains stagnant, and current demand growth remains stable, even under the hypothetically resultant demand growth.
R&D is driven by commodity prices to find cheaper alternatives.
What if the search for cheaper alternatives results in decreased industrial silver consumption?, like this:
https://www.printedelectronicsworld.com/articles/8333/solar-cell-that-eliminates-use-of-silver
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/silver-solar-011120173
https://www.nanowerk.com/spotlight/spotid=7705.php

 

[jerrygold]

Big assumption.
You are assuming the currant technology remains stagnant, and current demand growth remains stable, even under the hypothetically resultant demand growth.
R&D is driven by commodity prices to find cheaper alternatives.
What if the search for cheaper alternatives results in decreased industrial silver consumption?, like this:
https://www.printedelectronicsworld.com/articles/8333/solar-cell-that-eliminates-use-of-silver
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/silver-solar-011120173
https://www.nanowerk.com/spotlight/spotid=7705.php

It seems even if you find cheaper alternatives to silver that silver will always out compete it efficiency wise. There will always be a market for efficiency, space is a commodity.

 

[wrcmad]

It seems even if you find cheaper alternatives to silver that silver will always out compete it efficiency wise. There will always be a market for efficiency, space is a commodity.

You seem to have not read the first link I tagged above:

Working in their Rochester R&D Center, Natcore scientists have built an all-back-contact silicon heterojunction cell structure in which silver has been completely eliminated. It has been replaced by aluminum. This substitution has been accomplished with no loss of performance.
Read more at: https://www.printedelectronicsworld.com/articles/8333/solar-cell-that-eliminates-use-of-silver

But I hope you are right.

 

[leo25]

What if the search for cheaper alternatives results in decreased industrial silver consumption?, like this:
https://www.printedelectronicsworld.com/articles/8333/solar-cell-that-eliminates-use-of-silver

I would imagine the aluminum panels would not last as long as silver. Yes they might get the same output, but if the panels only last half the life then it's not really cheaper. Also what's the size difference?

Btw that article is over 2 years old, where can i buy these "breakthrough" aluminum panels?

After years of reading articles on websites like www.phys.org I've lost all meaning in words like "breakthrough"

 

[jerrygold]

You seem to have not read the first link I tagged above:

But I hope you are right.

You are right I didn't read it, I'm not just talking about solar panels though but silver has properties which make it great for all electronics, the only reason it isn't used more is it is expensive. But in places where size matters it is typically used.

It seems silver demand in solar panels is going to increase by 30% or something next year according to some reports I read. But that would only move it from ~10% of silver supply to 13%, so it isn't exactly a short term blowout we are talking about. I can see in 5 years that may be 20-25% unless better tech comes along like you pointed out. I would think unless the alternative is much cheaper a lot of panels will continue with the silver manufacturing process anyhow.

 

[wrcmad]

You are right I didn't read it, I'm not just talking about solar panels though but silver has properties which make it great for all electronics, the only reason it isn't used more is it is expensive. But in places where size matters it is typically used.

Exactly my point.
If it is considered expensive now, then that suggests to me that any increase in demand/price will drive a shift to cheaper alternatives across the board, and could effectively suppress silver demand/price.

 

[wrcmad]

I would imagine the aluminum panels would not last as long as silver. Yes they might get the same output, but if the panels only last half the life then it's not really cheaper. Also what's the size difference?

You can imagine anything you want. What I see is people now don't give a shyte about longevity in most of their consumer purchases... everything is becoming price driven... as evidenced by the decades long China story.

 

[Skyrocket]

There is an ever increasing industrial need for silver which will likely see more of a shift towards industrial use over coins/bars. However there is still a lot of silver added to the market year on year in forms that silver hoarders buy.

It is hard to see how this won't have a positive impact on silver price, does anyone have a counter argument?

That is why sooner or later the silver price has to go to the moon.

 

[leo25]

You can imagine anything you want. What I see is people now don't give a shyte about longevity in most of their consumer purchases... everything is becoming price driven... as evidenced by the decades long China story.

Solar panels are not the same as a flat screen TV. People are happy to buy a cheaper TV now because they have the mind set that in a few years time they can get a bigger and better upgrade. Now if you told the same person that the TV in 3 years will look 99% the same, then they would spend more on the TV now that will last 3x as long and save money. People only by solar panel to save money (it's not a leisure or needed item), so most will definitely buy the one that saves them the most money over all. But hey you can imagine anything you want

 

[jerrygold]

It isn't hard to see that in 5 years silver industrial needs out pace what is mined leading to more and more scrap being used (including jewelery and bars/coins).

Are there any big new mines coming online in the next years?

 

[surfsup]

I would imagine the aluminum panels would not last as long as silver. Yes they might get the same output, but if the panels only last half the life then it's not really cheaper. Also what's the size difference?

Btw that article is over 2 years old, where can i buy these "breakthrough" aluminum panels?

After years of reading articles on websites like www.phys.org I've lost all meaning in words like "breakthrough"

Agree, additionally they compare cost only of the silver to aluminum. What about the additional costs to manufacture the panel with aluminum? the durability? the weight of the panels? the size? the weight and size will affect shipping, how many per container, per ship, the weight affects how much fuel. What about longevity? After 60 years the original panels still produce 68% efficiency. Will these last that long? Perform that well?

I read through some of their annual filings. I have a solar system on my roof so naturally this tech interests me. According to the filings they are only able to achieve 20% efficiency not 25% as they claim on their website. They also state in the filing this is similar to commercial efficiencies, so using aluminum apparently offers no efficiency advantage. Commercial efficiencies are stated as 19%. Their highest test was 20.5%.

Additionally, "Natcore does not plan to manufacture solar cells, but rather to have the technology manufactured through partnerships with third parties that will ultimately yield licensing and royalty revenues."

So looks like they haven't licensed any patents to anyone. They are also bleeding cash. We'll see what happens...but it is always best to read the filings instead of some article written by the company that was given to the journalist to be pro-themselves.