Silver price levelling out?

[Alloy Troll]

But having been on here for only matter of weeks, all I seem to be seeing is people confidently predicting that silver will continue to plummet, and massively so.
Is pessimism (which can be optimism to a silver stacker I guess...) the norm around here? and as mentioned, is anyone ballsy enough to paper trade out now in anticipation of the predicted price collapse?

My nose of course tells me that people are just full of crap and have no real idea

Its the internet. Allot of people on the internet talk allot of shit, especially when they want something to happen. This forum is full of people that talk shit. Trust me. I remember when silver was at $23/USD and 'how it was about to take off to $200/USD'. ROFL NO WORRIES!

If someone does know something more than most people, they probably are not going to tell you what it is.

Apparently the longest recorded run of odds/evens on a roulette wheel was 17.

I've seen red spin 28 times.

 

[The Crow]

I've seen red spin 28 times.

Wow, better still. 17 came from a book I read. Most I've seen personally is something like 7 or 8, and at that time I felt it was almost unbelievable, so started doing some reading on it.

 

[SilverDJ]

There's quite a lot of people on the forum that bought at a much higher spot price. It makes no sense to sell it all at $16 and buy back in at $14

Of course it does!
Assuming the porice does drop as predicted, and then eventually rise to more than you paid for it:
a) You make a capital loss you can claim back against future capital gains
b) You actually make more money on the up-turn

Like I said, if you know, absolutely know, absolutely freaking know that the price of silver will drop, then it does make perfect sense to sell.
Everyone would absolutely do it in hindsight of course.

 

[The Crow]

You have to make up for dealers margins so would have to be confident at the time you sold that all costs would be covered. That would require KNOWING at any point in time that the price would fall by at least another 20% so as not to make a loss on the deal. It's one thing to predict a fall, somewhat another to predict that the fall will be large enough to both cover trading costs AND make a profit.

 

[Caput Lupinum]

There's quite a lot of people on the forum that bought at a much higher spot price. It makes no sense to sell it all at $16 and buy back in at $14

Of course it does!
Assuming the porice does drop as predicted, and then eventually rise to more than you paid for it:
a) You make a capital loss you can claim back against future capital gains
b) You actually make more money on the up-turn

Like I said, if you know, absolutely know, absolutely freaking know that the price of silver will drop, then it does make perfect sense to sell.
Everyone would absolutely do it in hindsight of course.

You're assuming stackers of physical metals actually report their gains/losses to the ATO

 

[alor]

price can drop and drop, then suddenly one day, just gap up.

so you do not get your buy order done.

anything can happen.

what if after buying back at $14, then it just drop off again. keep trying haha.

 

[SilverDJ]

You have to make up for dealers margins so would have to be confident at the time you sold that all costs would be covered. That would require KNOWING at any point in time that the price would fall by at least another 20% so as not to make a loss on the deal. It's one thing to predict a fall, somewhat another to predict that the fall will be large enough to both cover trading costs AND make a profit.

20%? Where do you get that figure from?
At this moment on MetalDesk silver price is AU$18.93 sell and AU$19.04 buy, that's a 0.6% differential, and each trade costs you 1%
So it only has to drop less than 3% from the current level for you to be starting to turn a profit relative to your current condition when you buy back.
Heck, swings of more than that happen in day, so it's possible for Joe Average to day trade silver at a profit if they are lucky enough.

 

[SilverDJ]

You're assuming stackers of physical metals actually report their gains/losses to the ATO

Red herring.
It technically is an advantage.
But my main point is not about capital loss, it is the demonstrable fact that you will profit if you sell now and the price goes as people predict it will and then eventually recoveres.
If it does that then you should sell now and buy back in when it drops.
Whether it actually comes to fruition and/or the risk of that or not is a different point entirely.

 

[Holdfast]

Ask any dealer, folk are not selling back to them, most are holding.

Ok, lets take that as the default position.
That then raises the 2nd part of my question, are the people who are claiming it's going to plummet selling now?, and if not, why not?

Who on earth sells? We are stackers. :lol:

True. But if you truly know it's going to drop, then why not sell now?
I can imagine it's safer to dollar cost average down of course and hedge your bet that way. But what if you really know it's going to plummet?
Is anyone so confident in that that they are selling most or all now?
I'm just curious if anyone is, nothing more implied at all.

Selling is a pain in the A

That I can understand, but what about those with paper silver?

Depends what folk have purchased.

Some folk diversify, some folk buy small and large bullion bars.

Those folk who have purchased "selected" bullion coins from years back are now sitting on numismatic coins (They are in the black)

Sure...some will sell their bullion coins and bars and buy back-in, there's nothing wrong with that but...as you may see, some of the coins that were disliked years ago are now fetching very good prices for those who sell. One could argue that folk are better off making a gain and then buying more ounces on the drop but who is so savvy as to know when the market will change.

Some have said, we are going lower (I think so) Some say sideways, some say higher, some just prey, some have no idea and some have no strategy for the long term.

Personally, I think folk are very scared of the future, they are not selling because they do not know what is going to happen; they know the stockmarket is heated and some of the older chaps can remember how the so called professionals lost a lot of their super that was in diversified portfolios.

Just what should older folk do to secure their wealth.

Buy into the stockmarket which is hot.

Stay in cash?

Buy paper gold or silver.

Buy hard assets like land or....

Or sit back and watch the AUD plunge.

If I have my metal now and...if the AUD drops off the perch, I have hedged. If I have lumps of silver and some nice semi-numismatic bullion coins which were formerly bullion coins I have hedged and diversified.

What folk can do, is off-load dud numismatic coins which have not been declared to cut their losses (Capital loss) and then buy on the drop. Hopefully the AUD holds against the USD.

After the crash of silver and gold in 1980 one thing remained...a new pool of stackers which will be the coin collectors of the future.

 

[SilverDJ]

Depends what folk have purchased.

Yes, of course. My argument was based entirely on silver bullion, especially paper silver, and not collectibles. That's an entirely different ball game.

Or sit back and watch the AUD plunge.

I don't quite understand the AUD impact if you are always buying and selling in AUD, and all your living expenses and lifestyle and retirement etc is entirely Oz based.

 

[Nabullion Dynamite]

It depends on what your idea of leveling out it. The price is always poised to move somehwere. It dropped a lot and then has beens sticking around 15 so it seems to have leveled out for the short term. Look at the charts for the last 3 years and you will see it never really levels out for that long.

 

[phrenzy]

I've been happy with the apparent stabilisation in silver prices but even if gold hits 1000, at a gsr of 70 your looking at 14.30usd for sliver, by the time you factor in the hassle and premiums is it really worth selling your PMs now to gain a dollar an ounce better price later? Add in the potential for the Aussie to lose some ground and it's really hardly worth it.

I'm keeping some cash aside just in case but I've been confident enough in the price set the moment to have been buying since around 19.50aud wherever I see a low premium bargain.

The best you can do is hold your stack and take pot shots at bargains when you see them.

 

[Holdfast]

http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/frequency/exchange-rates.html

http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/historical-data.html#exchange-rates

http://www.ozforex.com.au/

http://www.kitco.com/market/

 

[SilverDJ]

It dropped a lot and then has beens sticking around 15 so it seems to have leveled out for the short term.

Yes, that's what I mean, it seems to have settled down a fair bit.

 

[The Crow]

20% you want to do more than simply churn.
Even on unallocated there is e.g. minimum 5% spread on 1kg - e.g. Goldstackers $30 on 1 kg - that's close enough to $1 ounc and at $20 ounce that is 5%. For unallocated then you would want absolutely 10% else it is only churning. Then there are the premiums for physical rather than unallocated.
Don't forget that you are planning on buying back. For physical that means getting re-delivery and for those in the country that can mean significant costs.
Churning ONLY generates money for dealers not for investors.
Each time the price seems to plateau that is a discouragement to sell.
You claimed to want to know why people aren't selling - I'm suggesting one of them as I certainly wouldn't be interested in selling and rebuying unless I'm confident there will be a minimum of 20% drop and I can take advantage of a large part of that drop.

 

[SilverDJ]

20% you want to do more than simply churn.
Even on unallocated there is e.g. minimum 5% spread on 1kg

Then you are trading in the wrong place if you are playing paper.
Like I said, the spread on silver is only 0.6% on MetalDesk for pool, and actually the same for a 100oz bar. It increases slightly for 1kg and smaller bars and coins.
And just like GoldStackers you can withdraw the physical metal at any time if you chose. Although I have not tried that and don't know the fees involved
And you can buy or sell in AUD or USD.
And the spread on MD for Gold is a miniscule 0.09%
So if you are paying 5% spread and trading paper, then you are doing it wrong.

For those who haven't seen it:
https://www.bullioncapital.com/

 

[Boyscout]

I for 1 am buying

If the spot stays at current level I will continue to buy, If it falls I will still buy but it just means that I will get more Oz's for my $$$$

Knowing my luck if I sold now in the hope to buy back in at cheaper spot the damn spot price will jump and I will end up only getting a % of my stack back

 

[The Crow]

I'm a "stacker".
If you don't hold it, you don't own it!

 

[Caput Lupinum]

You won't find many stackers here that trade in paper silver. If I believe silver is going to drop further (which I do) I go with CFDs put options and/or buy USD

 

[SilverDJ]

I'm a "stacker".
If you don't hold it, you don't own it!

Sure, but you did mention unallocated. And anyone paying 5% spread for that through a regular bullion dealer is crazy, you can get an order of magnitude better than that at least.