There you go. We're 'sideways' since 2014. When silver is $30-35 we'll be 'sideways' since 2013. When silver is $50 we'll be 'sideways' since 2011. When silver is $100.. Well maybe we'll be 'sideways adjusted for inflation'?
Silver price going parabolic AGAIN
- Thread starter leon1998
- Start date
There you go. We're 'sideways' since 2014. When silver is $30-35 we'll be 'sideways' since 2013. When silver is $50 we'll be 'sideways' since 2011. When silver is $100.. Well maybe we'll be 'sideways adjusted for inflation'?
Topherclaus
Active Member
thefitter said:
I think most people would say yes of you don't feel you've got the position you want. Sometimes it pays off waiting for a pullback and other times that will see the train pull away from the station. Nobody can say what will happen 10 minutes from now in the markets, just go with your gut.
warfield87
New Member
thefitter said:
Read more on the silver price and GSR-related articles and decide for yourself. However, it is safe to assume it is still worth it to invest since there is always the Dollar-Cost-Averaging (DCA) thing.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
DCAwarfield87 said:
Just swapping a fixed amount dollars to silver regardless price.
Dead easy.
Usually, what is easiest tends to be rewarded with a red tutu.
About current price:
1) It's 4 times the price of 2003. Did the general price level quadruple since?
2) Relative to 2007, the amount pm dealers quadrupled (just a mega rough guess) and the majority of the new ones are still there.
3) The size of the futures market based hedge, hangs since last $14>$20 around a 1993-2015 record high of 100000. Maybe even an all time record, I don't know, I lack earlier data.
And not just record-breaking: the avg peak tends to be 50000-60000, so it just smashed it, nearly the double.
That's an order of 500 Moz (a half total annual supply/demand) silver solely to bump the price (those that buy now silver pay the dollars for the hedge/planned profit to work). It nearly always ends in delivery of dollars not silver. Dump the hedge and the price tumbles to $14, just by the futures market alone.
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=SI&cot=084691&p=m1&rev=636057089882950835
4) There is no outlook on further general price risings / inflation. The central planners try to make ppl waste their savings on temp increased prices. That 'helicopter' money is actually just some electronic figures on accounts of banks at their central bank, on which the central bank PAYS the banks a % to KEEP it there / to NOT lend it out.
5) Stock markets sit on decades record highs. It all looks set for another huge profit grab, read: a crash.
6) The more informed, that DO buy silver now, do so in the idea of selling it again on the 1-2 months time frame. They didn't buy it to stack for years. Remember 2011, where masses ounces were bought during a couple months, only to dump it during a couple days. I'm sure that they were $49 buyers thinking to sell at $55, but the rest didn't wait till there, and instead they probably had to hurry to get rid of it at $40+.
7) Annual coin, bar sales also, and still, sit on record high figures. Doing what most others do tends to deliver red. "Going against the herd" tends to deliver green.
8) It's all weighing risks against eachother. In such a next crisis, what will governments decide then? To allow bank savings be declared as lost with the bank? So far 2008+, most depositors didn't lose a dollar. But if the central planning discovers that savers didn't waste enough of their savings on temp bloated prices, they might reconsider, and let them lose it. They ofcourse don't prefer that, they rather want them to lose due to own risk taking, which is in the case of bank saving harder to blame them for, it's there the bank that choses the lenders. But is silver at current $20 a lower risk than that bank deposit?
Someone that buys silver at $30 to then sell it at $15, is the same % loss as a 100000 dollar by State "guaranteed" bank deposit of 200000 dollar. Are their other products out there, that may have a less driven up price? That's weighting risks.
For ex, I suspended stacking since end 2014, price max is $15. I still swap some fiat to other stuff, a number of things that I find here and there for very low prices. I put alot time in it, but can combine it with other things so its ok. I also repair, X with pieces of 1. It's all more hassle than silver, but the outlook on green appears to me, based on above, as much higher.
9) Silver is a means to a goal, just like any product bought solely to sell it again. Unlike quite some claim, it's not the product choice that will preserve your properties value / purchasing power, it's your trading behaviour that determines it.
10) Asking in a zero sum market others when to buy, can be compared with a sheep that asks the wolves when's it's time to eat.
11) The end of the world is over 5 billion years, and related to fission with not enough hydrogen.
BulkCoins15 said:
Well.. I would beg to differ. I think there is more than 1 opinion. The fact you mention can change at anytime, which is what we are discussing and what tools there are to protect your assets. Silver is up, but it was down a for a week not too long ago. There's money to be made going up, down, and sideways. The people that care about making $ look at short and long positions.
It's similar to saying, no one cares what you are buying physical. Just buy it and be quiet, which is just as correct.
sammysilver said:
I doubt solar producers will swallow up ALL silver reserves.
tangent
Solar keeps on giving, yes. But nearly all solar installations today only benefit The Network. A small percentage of users who go off-grid and are efficient with power usage are those that arguably have the right idea (independence!). All the rest are just enriching The Network. Users face low prices for exported power (about a quarter of what they pay to import). Users are subject to all present and future price hikes (the latest of which we are seeing now). Plus users face hideously high daily service charges (amounting to several hundred dollars per year for the privilege of just being connected to the grid). Again, a variable outside the user's control.
A precious few benefit from today's solar taxypayer scams. Precious few have 'no bills' (no bills as long as they don't count all their taxpayer money stolen for the solar scam). And precious few have power independence despite dropping prices on panels and associated solar gear (which is just like they designed for it to happen). Precious few have escaped The Grid.
silver
Silver is up. I might break-even!
BBQ said:
I'm surmising that as all new silver holdings are accounted for by industrial, jewellery and investment demand, then the solar industry will dip into all reserves plus extend their futures contracts well into the future. No silver, no solar.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
That "paper" is responsible for $7 of silvers current $20.BulkCoins15 said:
If you don't care now, then don't care later too, when they dump that $7 again away.
It's funny how some people blame paper for downtrends, but for the uptrends it also causes, they don't.
Just saying...
mmissinglink
Active Member
Pirocco said:
How is that figure derived at? I would think that it's more like $18 out of the $20.
Thanks in advance for explaining.
.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
1) Futures market net total position changes are derived from COT reports http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/HistoricalViewable/index.htmmmissinglink said:
2) Cash market supply/demand changes are derived from https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/
3) Price changes are derived from Kitco.com http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalsilver.html
When 1 marketside has little to no change, the other marketside is a by far dominant price driver. And any degree / ratio inbetween.
In this case, the most frequent /most accurate reported side is 1).
So, picking periods of 2) with little to no change, and one can calculate an ounces supply/demand change per price dollar change.
1 silver futures position change impacts the price as a 5000 ounces supply/demand change.
A number of samples gave a 70Moz (14K positions) futures market change for every USD $1 price change.
Ex this year the futures market hedge rose from 25K to 100K, the price from $14 to $20.
A delta 75K and a delta $6. That's 12K position. 1.5K off, caused by cash market.
I did this for a large number of samples selected for small cash market influence, and 70Moz per price dollar was the average.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
My 'wish' is the silver price going to $1000 while other prices stay.BulkCoins15 said:
Then for the rest of my life I can do whatever I want including nothing.
But.
There is a situation known as "reality".
That's what I try to approach here, along using all data I found, and insights I derived.
Because, the most costly mistake tends to be at the first step some1 makes into something new.
That latter, is being taken advantage of, by more experienced.
For me, it's post mortem.
For others, it may not be.
There are now 4 sledge hammers hanging above the silver price.
1) ETF's have 587 Moz left.
2) The Comex Exchange stocks have 154 Moz left.
3) The Futures market has 500 Moz left (as paper, but it drove the price up so same downwards "potential").
4) People stacked 1286 Moz coins and bars over the period 2010-2015.
There is now a funny colncidence on this 5 years term.
Imagine that "we", good folks on this forum and other places, bravely stacking the coins and bars, are 4)
And that 1) 2) and 3) are "our" enemies, meaning the ones that act against us, along the hedging principle.
A hedge, is a same position as the counterparty.
Then, 1+2+3 should equal 4.
Let's check.
587+154+500=1241 Moz.
What was 4): 1286 Moz.
Note the close figures.
Now THAT's a coincidence isn't it? 5 years data combined, a difference of only 3.6% (the more years data, the more accuracy)
I did aboves exercise for the gold market too, but since I have less data avail than silvers, I limited it to the 2012 > 2013 market change, because those years I had complete data, just to find out.
GOLD 2012 > 2013 = <change tonnes> <price pressure direction resulting from category and +/- of change>
Mine production 2864.1 > 3018.6 = +154.5 DOWN
Producer Hedging -39.7 > -50.1 = -10.4 UP
Recycling 1590.8 > 1371.4 = -219.4 UP
Net Government Sales -544.1 > -409.3 = -134.8 DOWN
Jewelry 1896.1 > 2360.9 = +464.8 UP
Electronics 284.5 > 279.5 = -5 DOWN
Other Industries 92.4 > 93.2 = +0.8 UP
Dentistry 38.6 > 36.4 = -2.2 DOWN
Coins & Bars 1347.3 > 1766.1 = +418.8 UP
ETFs and similar products 279.1 > -880 = -1159.1 DOWN
Total net change UP - DOWN = -341.4 DOWN
Now, the futures market is also a price change factor.
This was quite some work, had to download all the weekly COT reports, calculate the total net positions, make their sum, divide by 52 (weeks), to get a year average.
For 2012 this avg was 191244, for 2013 it was 88028.
Multiplying by 100 gives ounces, and then to tonnes.
This resulted in 595 tonnes in 2012 to 274 tonnes in 2013.
That's -321 tonnes.
Note (again!) the close figures.
321 versus 341.4 tonnes. A mere 6% difference for this single year change.
Is there a logic to find here?
Well there is. A 100% hedge on the futures market is a mirror of the position on the cash market. The cash market has a price effect X, the futures market makes the price effect 2X.
The total of cash(physical-tonnes)+futures market(paper-tonnes) in above is -341.4 - 321 = a -662.4 tonnes price effect.
The total supply/demand was in 2012 4415.2 tonnes. 662.4 is 15%
Average price in 2012 was $USD 1668.98, and in 2013 $1411.23. That's -$257.75 or -15.44%
And again, close figures: -15% versus -15.44%
So that X > 2 X hedging is indeed confirmed by the avg gold price change 2012 > 2013.
So it's like you said: "multiple factors"
At some point / stage of accumulating data, just like with a puzzle, things start to come together to form a picture, and insight in what happens and why.
mmissinglink
Active Member
"My 'wish' is the silver price going to $1000 while other prices stay.
But.
There is a situation known as "reality"."
Bingo! That's my same sentiment. My fantasy vs the reality on the ground....reality on the ground seems to always be the better choice for me.
.
But.
There is a situation known as "reality"."
Bingo! That's my same sentiment. My fantasy vs the reality on the ground....reality on the ground seems to always be the better choice for me.
.