Silver predicted to fall 25% in 2011

[dccpa]

But overall, the people have become so subservient to and reliant upon the US government to solve their problems, I believe most people will do what the government tells them to do. If the store shelves stayed empty for weeks, yes there would be riots, but we have too much food for that to happen.

Add in hyperinflation and you have riots 'cause nobody can buy the food.

Don't forget that the US has already had price controls before (1970s). Imported goods might disappear, but the farmers would be made to sacrifice for the greater good.

 

[JulieW]

I've only seen them at 20. I've assumed they have some premium on them as collector coins.

 

[dccpa]

projac, Williams has changed his prediction again. Now he believes that US hyperinflation could start as early as mid-2011.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...assive_Selling_of_US_Currency_Lies_Ahead.html

"The various European crises remain an intermittent foil for the U.S. dollar, pulling market attention away from the unfolding solvency crisis in the United States and a likely move to massive selling against the U.S. currency. Accordingly, high risk of the early stages of a hyperinflation beginning to unfold by mid-2011 continues."

 

[dccpa]

"Hey, it'll be tough going. But if you can reduce your debt, convert cash into hard assets to preserve wealth (such as physical PM's, food, real estate, etc), and keep items to barter if necessary (eg, pre-decimal coins, canned food, etc) , then you should be able to weather the storm - if there is a storm at all smile"

Silver is Money, us Yanks have been preparing for hyperinflation for a long time. Consider the following facts:

1. Most Americans are up to their ears in debt and that debt will be effectively wiped out with hyperinflation. So we have lived the good life on your money.

2. We have super-sized ourselves at fast food restaurants. So if there is a period of food shortage, we can survive on our stored fat.

3. We have a large enough supply of soft drinks to get us through any period of water shortage.

4. Even if we have a gasoline shortage, the majority will be unemployed and won't have anywhere to go.

Sure there are those ignorant fools who saved their money in cds and stayed slender through constant exercise, but the hyperinflation should weed them out just as Darwin would have predicted.

I believe all of you should acknowledge the foresightedness of Americans. We have used your credit card to party like its 1999 and now we are better prepared than any other nation to survive and even thrive on hyperinflation. Would I make a good politician or what?

 

[BBQ]

Robin Bhar, senior metals analyst at Credit Agricole CIB in London forecasts silver prices to average nearly $23 an ounce in 2011 on support from investor demand and a pickup in manufacturing.

Looks like revisions have been made (or someone has made a mistake...)
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20101221AS_creditagri.html

"Bhar estimates silver's average price at $29 an ounce and palladium's at $775 an ounce in 2011, compared to $19.90 and $518 for 2010 to date. In 2012, he pegs silver's average price at $25.50 and palladium's at $950. "

 

[THUCYDIDES79]

if my job at the Bank depended on it, id predict the fall in silver spot too

 

[Free market]

What will silver do over the Christmas period?

Fall / Rise? Interesting to see what happens.

As for a mild correction in 2011, why not? It will only give the bullish trend more to show that the bubble is far off. Where is all of the institutional money? Where are all of the funds focussing on metals and not property and other stuff?

 

[Bargain Hunter]

If I'm not mistaken secular bull market's have not just short term corrections but also the occasional year where the price of the asset finishes the year lower than when it started. Although silver had a large decline during the GFC has it actually ended a calendar or financial year lower than where it started since the bull market began? If the answer is no then surely it has to occur at some point.

 

[dccpa]

If I'm not mistaken secular bull market's have not just short term corrections but also the occasional year where the price of the asset finishes the year lower than when it started. Although silver had a large decline during the GFC has it actually ended a calendar or financial year lower than where it started since the bull market began? If the answer is no then surely it has to occur at some point.

Gold has been up every year, including 2008. I believe silver ended 2008 at a lower price than the start of the year.

 

[Photonaware]

I rediscovered the text I originally submitted from - http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20101216Dec_outlook.html

This is the current Kitco 2011 prediction page found here - http://news.kitco.com/2011/ ...... check "New Outlooks Silver"

The $23 prediction in the last paragraph.

The current spot price and recent trend makes silver look overpriced especially 1 oz coins that have high premiums attached and in the UK from Jan 4th 20% sales tax in addition. Wow! That definitely disadvantages silver vs gold as the premium on silver coins is likely to exceed 30% and in some cases ( e.g. Perth Mint coins ) well over 50%.

PS Sorry about the cricket !!

PPS I don't care as cricket is as interesting to me as watching paint dry.

 

[greyman68]

I hope it falls 25% so I can buy Monster box of Maple leafs and Monster box of American Eagles and Pamp Suisse 15kg box

 

[boston]

PPS I don't care as cricket is as interesting to me as watching paint dry.

Is that acrylic or oil based?

 

[boston]

I hope it falls 25% so I can buy Monster box of Maple leafs and Monster box of American Eagles and Pamp Suisse 15kg box

It's not the silver corection that is of concern, the worry is the A$/US$ exchange rate where the difference will in all probability play out. Personally, I would be surprised if, in A$, there would be much difference than from our current pricing.

 

[Peter]

Yes.The factors that cause PMs to fall and USD to rise,would cause the AUD to fall.
Silver wouldn't probably fall as much in Aud.
Just as it hasn't risen as much as in America lately.

 

[JulieW]

Just a quick one - stagflation - horrid word and condition.

stagflation is the situation when both the inflation rate and the unemployment rate are persistantly high. It is a difficult economic condition for a country, because when inflation and economic stagnation are occurring simultaneously, a policy dilemma results since actions that are meant to assist with fighting inflation might worsen economic stagnation and vice versa.

We have the circumstances standing by and it only needs a few more natural disasters and commodity and food prices will hit employment and inflation.

Last time silver was at its top, stagflation was high (the 'misery' index - unemployment figures added to inflation figures. If that goes over 20 percent then firesales will start imho and Prechter's call on massive deflation will happen. A distance off but I suspect that the US is more concerned about that than hyperinflation but interesting that reducing the value of the currency was the seed of the previous bout.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation#Explaining_the_1970s_stagflation

 

[Photonaware]

I was becoming somewhat frustrated and annoyed at reading two contradictory forecasts from Bhar of Credit Agricole reported by Kitco Dec 16th and Dec 21.

Dec 16th Bhar was quoted at predicting a fall to an average price of $23 in 2011 from $30.

A second article Dec 21 quoted Bhar prediciting an average 2011 silver price of $29.

I emailed Kitco directly and asked how is it possible to have the same "so called expert" change his prediction so much in the same week !!

They replied today stating 'Bhar had updated his forecast'.

I guess the old saying "the blind leading the blind" has a ring of truth here.

 

[Sticks]

[It's not the silver corection that is of concern, the worry is the A$/US$ exchange rate where the difference will in all probability play out. Personally, I would be surprised if, in A$, there would be much difference than from our current pricing.

Think you are right on here. Yesterday I was watching some good upward movement in US Spot Price, But at same time Exchange rate was also falling.
So after a very good increase in Price - Net value was almost the same.

 

[JulieW]

Very few 'experts' deserve the title. I always look back and see what their track record is like - and as Celente says, most of them were blissfully ignorant of 2008 and that discounts 90 percent of them.

My favourite is Nadeem over at marketoracle.co.uk - usually insightful and mostly correct in his trends identification, but in reality the only people who know anything aren't going to tell US. All the pundits are still talking about stocks to buy when all the insiders are selling everything they hold - so I hold the opinions here at SS as high as any.

 

[Guest]

Very few 'experts' deserve the title. I always look back and see what their track record is like - and as Celente says, most of them were blissfully ignorant of 2008 and that discounts 90 percent of them.

My favourite is Nadeem over at marketoracle.co.uk - usually insightful and mostly correct in his trends identification, but in reality the only people who know anything aren't going to tell US. All the pundits are still talking about stocks to buy when all the insiders are selling everything they hold - so I hold the opinions here at SS as high as any.

I tend to follow both Peter Schiff and Gerald Celente myself. Both have been proven accurate in the past and Schiff especially, has a very enviable knowledge of economics that makes that vast majority of mainstream media 'experts' look like complete clowns.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw[/youtube]

I rest my case.

 

[kram]

Peter Schiff is so damn good. Every time.