Silver predicted to fall 25% in 2011
- Thread starter Photonaware
- Start date
predecimal said:
Absolutely correct!
Who cares what the average mining cost for silver is if miners can not satisfy the market demand for that price.
Not long ago governments stepped in with their melted silver coins and competed with the lowest cost silver miners, but the emperor lost his clothes in the process and only paper shorts left to dress up in, but still try to look pretty and in control. That used to work before because all the big fishes also used to feed on the small ones, and if someone steeped out of the like the Hunt brothers they were collectively destroyed.
What totally unexpected and different this time is the small fishes evolved into ever growing number of piranhas and the market flooded with them and this money printing will only add steroids to make them stronger and breed faster. They already took the clothes form the emperors, and now they are in the process to eat them alive until absolutely nothing left to feed on.
Contrarian
New Member
malachii said:
Agree completely.
It's all about using the cycles to your advantage. Moving between asset classes, buying in gloom, selling in boom. Precious metals are just another investment tool.
It's easy to become a one trick pony when you believe in a particular investment. It's also very dangerous, as many one trick property ponies are about to find out.
If you drive in a straight line for long enough eventually you'll hit a tree. It pays to take the blinkers off and learn how to swerve.
C
intelligencer said:
The times I do best are when I am the least aware of what is going on, so basically most of the time.
If I set price bids for purchases or sales, they usually get triggered and I do well. When I am actively involved, I usually fine tune things and miss out. For example, when I was at an auction, there was a framed print that I was interested in purchasing. I had to leave and told a friend to bid up to $35 for me. I got back in time to bid and decided I could get it cheaper. It sold for less than $35 to someone else. Found the print later on the internet and it was worth about $250.As was posted on the previous page, the theory of buying after a large drop in price sounds great, but it is very hard to do. Entering limit orders and then walking away takes the emotion out of the trade.
JulieW said:
For a guy who claims to have made all the big calls, he seems to miss all the ones I have researched. I was looking for his position on silver and found the video. Check out the 3:00 where he states that the Collapse of 09 being he his most assured forecast. The video was made in November, 2008. Next it was the Collapse of 2010. I guess next year will be the Collapse of 2011.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AEQdeJPfHY
In US terms I think he's right. It collapsed in 2008 and the rate of his predictions is just slower. The fascist state is there. The unemployment is there. The only thing missing is the food riots and considering their circumstance that isn't too far off.
I don't take any predictions by anybody as a reason to act, but Celente seems to have a good grasp of what pointers to look for in your decisions.
I don't take any predictions by anybody as a reason to act, but Celente seems to have a good grasp of what pointers to look for in your decisions.
JulieW said:
He seems similar to Schiff in that his successful prediction rate is not that good, but his overall advice is very good.
Food may not be as much of a problem for the US as many believe. We produce a large amount of food. In my state of Arkansas, we produce a tremendous amount of rice and soybeans. If/when SHTF we may not have near as much of imported goods and people may not be able to buy a lot of the things they are used to, but the government can ban food exports. Americans will have food to eat, but it may be beans instead of beef. If the USD tanks due to hyperinflation, there will be a period of dislocation and some people will panic. Of course any LA riot type situation, no matter how small, will get worldwide press coverage. But overall, the people have become so subservient to and reliant upon the US government to solve their problems, I believe most people will do what the government tells them to do. If the store shelves stayed empty for weeks, yes there would be riots, but we have too much food for that to happen.
Would you exchange your farm products for dollars in hyperinflation?
Also John Williams is very reliable
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Butler/dec162010.html
Inflation Well I walked past Ty's desk yesterday, and he was reading a report from John Williams, of the Shadow Stats fame, and inflation was the topic John Williams believes that we will have hyperinflation in this country within the next two years Remember when I told you about the National Inflation Association (NIA) and their claims that inflation was soaring already? The NIA has said that they "believe that if the U.S. stays on its current path, we are guaranteed to see hyperinflation this decade. The only way it will be possible to prevent hyperinflation is if the U.S. government dramatically cuts spending across the board immediately and if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates from near zero percent (where they have been for nearly two years) to a level that is higher than the real rate of price inflation. Considering that the Federal Reserve still claims to fear deflation and just announced massive quantitative easing, we see very little chance of any major interest rate hikes taking place during the next six months."
Now getting back to John Williams this man has done a wonderful job of presenting the "real numbers" that the Gov't will not produce And so, when he says that he believes that hyperinflation is but a couple of years away, I believe him! And you should too There's just no reason not to! And I'm sure that if you are a person that says, "but I'd rather believe the Fed Chairman and stand behind him in his fight with deflation" Well then, I'm sure that in a couple of years, you'll be saying, "Geez I wish I had not followed the Fed Chairman down the slippery slope of inflation"
And I think that all you have to do is to watch the bond markets I think the bond markets are seeing what John Williams, and yours truly are seeing, and that's why Treasury yields are rising! The 10-year added another 4 BPS yesterday Hello? Is there anybody in there? Is there anybody in there? Yes, I know most people have become comfortably numb with the low rates, but that's all about to change folks
Also John Williams is very reliable
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Butler/dec162010.html
Inflation Well I walked past Ty's desk yesterday, and he was reading a report from John Williams, of the Shadow Stats fame, and inflation was the topic John Williams believes that we will have hyperinflation in this country within the next two years Remember when I told you about the National Inflation Association (NIA) and their claims that inflation was soaring already? The NIA has said that they "believe that if the U.S. stays on its current path, we are guaranteed to see hyperinflation this decade. The only way it will be possible to prevent hyperinflation is if the U.S. government dramatically cuts spending across the board immediately and if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates from near zero percent (where they have been for nearly two years) to a level that is higher than the real rate of price inflation. Considering that the Federal Reserve still claims to fear deflation and just announced massive quantitative easing, we see very little chance of any major interest rate hikes taking place during the next six months."
Now getting back to John Williams this man has done a wonderful job of presenting the "real numbers" that the Gov't will not produce And so, when he says that he believes that hyperinflation is but a couple of years away, I believe him! And you should too There's just no reason not to! And I'm sure that if you are a person that says, "but I'd rather believe the Fed Chairman and stand behind him in his fight with deflation" Well then, I'm sure that in a couple of years, you'll be saying, "Geez I wish I had not followed the Fed Chairman down the slippery slope of inflation"
And I think that all you have to do is to watch the bond markets I think the bond markets are seeing what John Williams, and yours truly are seeing, and that's why Treasury yields are rising! The 10-year added another 4 BPS yesterday Hello? Is there anybody in there? Is there anybody in there? Yes, I know most people have become comfortably numb with the low rates, but that's all about to change folks
No one really knows what may or may not come to pass. Hey, I've got kids so I honestly hope that this is just someone making mountains out of a molehills and all will be rosey in the future. But as I've said in previous posts, all you can do is be prepared and protect your loved ones by being ready for whatever the world throws at you.
If there is to be a hyperinflationary environment in the US, hopefully it will only be at lower levels and nowhere near the Weimar or Zimbabwean hyperinflationary levels of the past. The $64 question is if the the US goes into hyperinflation, how will this affect the ourside world, such as here in Australia.
Maybe it's wishful thinking, but if this occurs, overall I believe we'll fair much better than most other nations. Yes, we'll definitely see higher interest rates (so those with high debt to asset ratios will feel it worse than others) and prices for basic commodities will rise substantially, but due to our stronger economy (well at least for the time being) there shouldn't be any of the "civil carnage" we may see in the US.
Hey, it'll be tough going. But if you can reduce your debt, convert cash into hard assets to preserve wealth (such as physical PM's, food, real estate, etc), and keep items to barter if necessary (eg, pre-decimal coins, canned food, etc) , then you should be able to weather the storm - if there is a storm at all
If there is to be a hyperinflationary environment in the US, hopefully it will only be at lower levels and nowhere near the Weimar or Zimbabwean hyperinflationary levels of the past. The $64 question is if the the US goes into hyperinflation, how will this affect the ourside world, such as here in Australia.
Maybe it's wishful thinking, but if this occurs, overall I believe we'll fair much better than most other nations. Yes, we'll definitely see higher interest rates (so those with high debt to asset ratios will feel it worse than others) and prices for basic commodities will rise substantially, but due to our stronger economy (well at least for the time being) there shouldn't be any of the "civil carnage" we may see in the US.
Hey, it'll be tough going. But if you can reduce your debt, convert cash into hard assets to preserve wealth (such as physical PM's, food, real estate, etc), and keep items to barter if necessary (eg, pre-decimal coins, canned food, etc) , then you should be able to weather the storm - if there is a storm at all
intelligencer
Active Member
projack said:
We weren't too far off either. Peter Costello got rid of 2/3 of Australias gold in the late nineties.
I believe we only have around 80 tonnes in reserve somewhere.
12 months ago they were giving them away at $13 each. They weren't even on the calculation chart here on SS. Gold Pelican soon added them to the list. I am still in the market at $18each which is currently around spot.spannermonkey said:malachii said:spannermonkey said:Not if 90% of your holding are $10 silver coins
Depends on what you paid for them!
malachii
Even at $20 each as I have been buying lately ,its worth it for worst case scenario to face value.
Regards Errol43