Silver nightmare - will it hold 15 $?

Intrinsic value.

According to the exchange rate at any given time. ( Crooks and thieves)

According to the LBMA ( Cartel) :rolleyes:

According to the worlds top miners (Who have hedged)

According to coin collectors. (Who have hedged)

According to industry. (Who will buy at the lows)

Silver is a lump of silver and....history shows its intrinsic value, for all to see.
 
The dollar sits now very close to the multiyear upward boundary of the currency tunnel.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=w1
The euro the same but low boundary.
Stocks sit on multiyear highs.
I think it just needs a US economical data revision (seems to be a habit there) to send everything in the other direction.
My wage is this evening or tomorrow, if the silver price stays here then I purchase 5 kilo (not exact).
Another silver step on the silver road. :D
 
Luker said:
Silver has no intrinsic value....all of it's value is derived by those who have interest in it.
...
The value is entirely extrinsic because the individual is making the determination of silver's value, not the other way around

hey missinglink,

I am not sure that I understand your argument,

It seems to me that a logical extension of what you are implying is that nothing is inherently/intrinsically of value, as value is determined solely by those that have interest in the "thing" in question. So it naturally follows that neither air nor water are "intrinsically" valuable- as they are only deemed to be valuable by those who require it to live and breathe....I think that we all can agree with your premise, but it seems somewhat of a moot point and more relevant to a discussion in philosophy. I would agree that the value of silver beyond the industry break-even cost for pulling it out of the ground- the very argument that the majority of silver-stackers speculate on, is essentially dependant on extrinsic factors.

Back in the early Roman times, it was deemed that 1 oz of silver could purchase the services of a soldier or common laborer for 10 days...not so much anymore-perhaps merely 1.5 hours of work from the unskilled worker. Thus, the "value" of silver has changed based on the extrinsic preceptions of those involved in the contract. But one could argue that it also had intrinsic value due to its everyday applications/ tools of the times, just as today it has a myriad of uses in our economy, one which requires silver to "breathe" to function properly.

Cheers,
Luker
missinglink needs no help from me, but you just do not get it.

ANYTHNG can be deemed to have value - to pay soldiers (for example). That does not give it intrinsic value.
Anything that has been used as 'money' has changed in value. Some examples would be seashells, hemp, cigarettes, gold and silver.
What is the value of the air that you breath? How much do you exchange for other things to get what you need? How poor would you have to be before you could not afford it?

Does the cost of acquiring butterfly wings somehow determine the price or value of butterfly wings?

~ ~ ~
Maybe this will help.
How much is the air that I breath worth to you?
What would you pay, for the air that I am going to breath tomorrow?
With silver, what I have, or what you have, is worth the same (assuming it is the same shape, weight etc).
How about air, is what I use or have worth the same to you as what you have or use?
 
Intrinsic value...

"Mankind can live without gold but not without salt." - Cassiodorus, Roman statesman, circa 500 AD.

Gold and silver may be a trusted medium of exchange, but it is a fallacy to believe these metals have intrinsic value. They are indisputably valuable over historic timescales, but gold especially, unlike salt, is only valuable because we agree it is. However, gold and silver are useful as money for their intrinsic properties; durability, divisibility and scarcity.

From: ECONOMICS & SALT:
The MONEY CRISIS and our complete misconception of money

Money as a means of exchange is not a commodity but a concept and thus in the classic meaning, its availability can not be limited. It has no intrinsic value. Only after it is spent - does it represent the intrinsic value of the items or services purchased . Throughout history many kinds of money were invented including cowry shells, salt, medals and gold - none of them with the exception of salt had serious intrinsic value. Today even gold it might be argued has little value relative to its real usefulness.
http://salt.org.il/frame_econ.html
 
SilverPete said:
Intrinsic value...

"Mankind can live without gold but not without salt." - Cassiodorus, Roman statesman, circa 500 AD.

Gold and silver may be a trusted medium of exchange, but it is a fallacy to believe these metals have intrinsic value. They are indisputably valuable over historic timescales, but gold especially, unlike salt, is only valuable because we agree it is. However, gold and silver are useful as money for their intrinsic properties; durability, divisibility and scarcity.

From: ECONOMICS & SALT:
The MONEY CRISIS and our complete misconception of money

Money as a means of exchange is not a commodity but a concept and thus in the classic meaning, its availability can not be limited. It has no intrinsic value. Only after it is spent - does it represent the intrinsic value of the items or services purchased . Throughout history many kinds of money were invented including cowry shells, salt, medals and gold - none of them with the exception of salt had serious intrinsic value. Today even gold it might be argued has little value relative to its real usefulness.
http://salt.org.il/frame_econ.html

lol rome fell before 500 AD
 
Luker said:
Silver has no intrinsic value....all of it's value is derived by those who have interest in it.
...
The value is entirely extrinsic because the individual is making the determination of silver's value, not the other way around

hey missinglink,

I am not sure that I understand your argument,

It seems to me that a logical extension of what you are implying is that nothing is inherently/intrinsically of value, as value is determined solely by those that have interest in the "thing" in question. So it naturally follows that neither air nor water are "intrinsically" valuable- as they are only deemed to be valuable by those who require it to live and breathe....I think that we all can agree with your premise, but it seems somewhat of a moot point and more relevant to a discussion in philosophy. I would agree that the value of silver beyond the industry break-even cost for pulling it out of the ground- the very argument that the majority of silver-stackers speculate on, is essentially dependant on extrinsic factors.

Back in the early Roman times, it was deemed that 1 oz of silver could purchase the services of a soldier or common laborer for 10 days...not so much anymore-perhaps merely 1.5 hours of work from the unskilled worker. Thus, the "value" of silver has changed based on the extrinsic preceptions of those involved in the contract. But one could argue that it also had intrinsic value due to its everyday applications/ tools of the times, just as today it has a myriad of uses in our economy, one which requires silver to "breathe" to function properly.

Cheers,
Luker


In my view, clarity of a term(s) or thought(s) that I am involved with discussing is never a moot point. And so yes, I do make it a point of defining what I see as a misapplied term in the discussion of the value of something.

Intrinsic value (price.let's not make any mistake about it, it's price we are talking about here when we state "value" in the discussion of intrinsic/extrinsic value) of any inanimate thing is an empty or null set. That's not a philosophy statement, it's a logical statement when attempting to attach a specific value on anything - any commodity, any asset, and currency....anything.

Having an intrinsic value means having a value that needs no other ("intrinsic" = unto its own). Having it's own value outside of any extrinsic valuation is never the case for silver or any commodity. The value of any commodity is always determined subjectively and extrinsically by people (or groups of like minded people) who desire to have or to own that commodity/asset/currency, etc. That value is changing all the time and it differs from one person/group to the next to the next.

To answer your question, yes, nothing that is inanimate (that is, nothing that can not make a value (price) judgment) has intrinsic value. The fact that silver may have been valued by Roman soldiers and the Roman leadership during the Bronze Age doesn't mean that silver had any value to anyone else. It may not have to some and to others it may have. To others who may have valued it, the value that they attached to silver may have been very different than the value a Roman leader did.

If it cost agent A from territory 1 X amount of resources and time to pull a ton of somewhat useful substance N out of the ground and it cost agent B from territory 2 8X for the same thing and agent C working on mining the same substance in territory 3 has no idea yet what it will cost her team, then what is the precise intrinsic value of substance N that moment or any given moment? If an alien mother ship came down to earth with unlimited amounts of substance N or had technology that could mine substance N for 1/10,000thX, then what would be the precise intrinsic value of substance N? What was the exact intrinsic value of substance N 30,000 years before anyone knew that substance ever existed? Substance N, just like silver or dog feces gets ALL its value from those who desire itbecause these things can not ever have a value (price) without others to attach a subjective value to it, dog feces, silver, substance N, or any inanimate thing has no intrinsic value.

There may be mining costs but miners can't even agree what those are.

Miners don't come up with even remotely similar numbers in terms of cost for mining an ounce of silver so to attempt to claim that the cost of mining an ounce of silver is an intrinsic value is not understanding how valuing things works. When I first got into stacking (around 12 months after $49 USD/oz silver - many people claiming that $49 was a real bargain price because the real value of silver is hundreds and even thousands of dollars an ounce), I can remember reading how some miners were claiming that all in cost of mining an ounce was like $34 USD /oz....considerably less than the $49 that many people seemed willing to dole out for an ounce but considerably more than some people apparently are willing to dole out for an ounce priced at $17. Today, miners are still all over the map in terms of their claims for what is the all in cost except for the fact that none of them seems to be claiming that $34 is really the cost. The point is of course, all of it...every part of what miners claim, is a subjective valuation that changes all the time. So what is the precise intrinsic value of silver?

The people claiming that silver has intrinsic value always conveniently forget that the value (price) they call "intrinsic" is ALWAYS a subjective, extrinsic valuation that is changing all the time....while you read this, while you eat your next meal, while you have sex, and while you sleep. Silver has no intrinsic value because it needs others to attach a value (price) to it.

Now you can call the cost of extraction of a single ounce of silver from the ground something, but it's a misnomer to call it an intrinsic value. Call it AIM (All In Mining) value for mining company B, call it something but the claimed alleged cost that mining co. B gives is not an intrinsic value.

Finally, we should not (and I'm not stating that you are) confuse intrinsic properties or characteristics of a thing with what some call intrinsic value. You don't need miner B to attach a claim to silver that it has specific characteristics of atomic weight or melting point or whatever but silver can not itself determine what its value is...you need miner B and dealers who want to pay rent, taxes, electricity, salaries, etc, etc, etc to store it, and commodities exchanges, and people who make jewelry from it, and people who want it only if it comes in the form of semi-numi coins from a particular mint, etc, etc, etc. I think you get the point...value can only be extrinsic but characteristics or properties can be intrinsic.



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Silver does have an intinsic value as it is used as an industrial material. When the market is very low, that value comes into play. To a certain extent it also has an effect on highs as well.
 
lshallperish said:
SilverPete said:
Intrinsic value...

"Mankind can live without gold but not without salt." - Cassiodorus, Roman statesman, circa 500 AD.
lol rome fell before 500 AD
Oh great scholar of history, please educate us further.

QBrkKFQ.jpg
 
Miksture said:
Silver does have an intinsic value as it is used as an industrial material. When the market is very low, that value comes into play. To a certain extent it also has an effect on highs as well.


Silver has utility in certain (industrial) applications, NOT intrinsic value. Utility is not the same as intrinsic value...very different in fact as i see it. If you disagree, what is silver's alleged intrinsic value? Be very specific please. When I talk about value, I am referring to the only measure that could relate to "value" in the context of silver as a commodity or asset purchased by industry/investors/collectors/stackers/all who buy - a price. So what price does silver attach to itself? And please do not list intrinsic qualities/characteristics/properties.





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The Western Roman Empire ended when Romulus Augustulus was deposed by the Germanic chief Odoacer in 476 AD. This is generally thought of as the end of the Ancient Roman Empire.

The Eastern Roman Empire continued on for another thousand years. :)
 
TreasureHunter said:
thatguy said:
maybe never to jan 2015

Maybe never what?

I assume you are saying it will "never" reach 10 $ until January 2015.

Perhaps, but the way it's been going and by taking account of previous levels, it could go to 10 $ next year perhaps in April-June. Perhaps later?

I can imagine 8-9 $ silver as a terrible crash scenario.

How long will it take for it to reach 30-35 $ again is my big question.

so you are saying $8-9 silver by next easter not $36?
 
doomsday surprise said:
The Western Roman Empire ended when Romulus Augustulus was deposed by the Germanic chief Odoacer in 476 AD. This is generally thought of as the end of the Ancient Roman Empire.

The Eastern Roman Empire continued on for another thousand years. :)

Back to where brief historical interlude began, intrinsic value...

"Mankind can live without gold but not without salt." - Flavius Magnus Aurelius Cassiodorus Senator (c. 485 c. 585), commonly known as Cassiodorus, was a Roman statesman and writer, serving in the administration of Theoderic the Great, king of the Ostrogoths.

Salt has intrinsic value to humans. Gold and silver do not.
The worth of Sodium Chloride, or "common salt", as it became known, as an exchanged value for other essential commodities, such as food, fuel, luxuries or slaves, has a yet to be determined, important role in state finances and in the origin of money. Salt [NaCl] is not just an essential commodity. It is essential for life. The primary necessity [absolute requirement] is Physiological. Its importance as a meat preservative in the great temples, manufacture of glass, processing leather, soap, textiles and not least, gunpowder, was diminutive in comparison. It is as basic for animal life as the air we breath, the water we drink, and the proteins we eat. A salt deficiency is as critical as a water deficiency. Water and salt are essential to maintaining extracellular and intracellular concentrations of salt to activate cells in all plant and animal life. The body may endure periods of lack of food, but without salt and water , living cells would quickly perish from dehydration. 'Slavery' is only an extreme illustration of the social consequence of salt hunger.

http://www.salt.org.il/money.html
 
millededge said:
I expect silver to head past $75 to $125/oz. in the next year or two as this bull market continues.

Jason Hommel
June 23, 2013

Alll of the 'pros' who were selling their goods predicted numbers like this. Quite commical. They better run for the hills if and when they come back on the scene. LOL.
 
Jislizard said:
Act 1: Raise the price of gold so everyone takes notice, then set up gold buyers in every shopping centre to take the gold jewellery and grandpa's coin collections.
Now the poor have no gold.

Act 2: Smash the price of gold so investors sell it, weak hands cut their losses.
Now the investors have no gold.

Act 3: Manipulate the GSR, now stackers swap their gold for silver, they think they will swap it back when the GSR reverses, but it never will.>
Now stackers have no gold.

Act 4: Global Financial Crash, people sell everything they have including wedding rings and the family valuables.
No one has any gold, everyone has debt.

All the gold is in their hands, they remonetise it, revalue it and become rich,

So following this theory are you assuming a return to gold backing or just hyper inflation?
 
If it hits $10, and you buy at that price, it only has to go to $20 to make a half-decent profit.
I would think that the chances of it getting back to above $20 would be quite good, so at this stage I still don't see too much to be worried about.

If it goes to zero, and stays there, I will have lost little more than what my super lost in the hands of professional investors not many years ago. And the same happened in the '80s with my AMP investment and the Western-Royal super. And a mate of mine lost relatively huge sums (at the time >$80,000) thanks to Christopher Skase and Co during the same period. Only gambling what you can afford to lose leads to far less stress on the down even if it means less profit on the up.
 
barsenault said:
millededge said:
I expect silver to head past $75 to $125/oz. in the next year or two as this bull market continues.

Jason Hommel
June 23, 2013

Alll of the 'pros' who were selling their goods predicted numbers like this. Quite commical. They better run for the hills if and when they come back on the scene. LOL.



The yabbermouth permabull's whom in 2012 and 2013 were exclaiming that silver was going to shoot to da moon tomorrow (at least one of them strongly suggested that silver would surpass gold in price but several were claiming silver would shoot into the triple digits) are either the filthiest con artists around or are among the most clueless knuckledraggers around; either way, it's permacrap like that which is spewed which has resulted in me never trusting a permabull ever again for very good reason. I now laugh at those fools.




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Goushi said:
TreasureHunter said:
I think it'll dip below 15 $ and as it's going, I wouldn't be surprised to see sub-10 $ silver in 2015!

Opinions, thoughts?

One man's "nightmare" is another man's wet dream.

I am a firm believer in the futility and waste of mental energy spent in attempting to second guess market bottoms, tops or swings.

If any of us were really able to do that with any accuracy, we wouldn't be here.

Buy LOW and sell high...

Historically, it's LOW now.

LOWER will be even SWEETER, IF it goes there.
Historically, it's a HIGH now. In fact, it's 3 times higher than the historical price.
 
Cheepo said:
Historically, it's a HIGH now. In fact, it's 3 times higher than the historical price*.

* When you discount inflation over the past 20 years.
 
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