Silver Lake Resources (SLR)
- Thread starter Greenman
- Start date
NlightN said:
Still looks dicey but you could make an argument that around here its worth a highly speculative punt with a half or third of the $amount that you're willing to risk on it. Obviously high risk, so I'm sticking with the gold companies that have good management records and success so far. What do you think of the chart?
This is the weekly chart now, and you can see that the momentum indicators are improving (i.e higher lows) as the share price has continued to decline since June 2013. There's also that brace of solid positive volume bars last month, June 2014, and the exceptional positive volume week in March 2014. Must admit, it does give me a weak impression of being accumulated.
The price still isn't above that same general Low of June 2013 - even Newcrest (NCM) has achieved that, but admittedly not Kingsgate (KCN)
It all depends whether the market, and therefore the chart, has discounted all the bad news. If you wanted to be more sure you'd be sacrificing some of the early possible gain and buying on a break above .55, or .75, or 1.00!
Also there's a recent gap down at .42 that might get filled
Fortune favours the bold, but that's not me.
Five or six weeks on from previous remarks and weekly picture is still calm. This is one year weekly chart but the price on the daily chart descended to fill the gap above 42c mentioned.
However as time progresses the price still does not make a new low. By my count there are 5 weeks in the impulsive move that began in June, and 9 weeks so far in this corrective move. So almost double the time has elapsed on the downmove yet only ~73% of the upmove has been undone.
Also the volume in this corrective move has stayed low relative to the impulse move.
1 YEAR WEEKLY
3 Mth Daily, with gap formed above 42c June 20th since filled
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_slr_3_mth_daily.gif]
[/imgz]
However as time progresses the price still does not make a new low. By my count there are 5 weeks in the impulsive move that began in June, and 9 weeks so far in this corrective move. So almost double the time has elapsed on the downmove yet only ~73% of the upmove has been undone.
Also the volume in this corrective move has stayed low relative to the impulse move.
1 YEAR WEEKLY
3 Mth Daily, with gap formed above 42c June 20th since filled
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_slr_3_mth_daily.gif]
Even lower? Not using super science after the $27 AUD drop on Friday night, but the share price has also closed with the weekly candle well below 40c 'support'. I wouldn't have picked it - it was showing good signs of pulling up to my eye. Volume still muted which can be counted as a plus.
I wouldn't be surprised to see evidence of traders entering SLR soon. Just based on recent behaviour of the stock, viz:
Main rationale:
Previous two declines starting Aug 2013 have taken 3 and a bit months. This current decline has taken 3 and a bit months. The series of three rallies starting June 2013 have each returned about 100% over 1-2 months, so I suspect attractive to traders.
Each of the three rallies was preceded by a 'washout' negative volume spike, we've just had a mild spike in neg volume 1st week of Oct.
Also:
The candles have stayed nice and small = low volatility = little urgency of selling, buyers are meeting sellers.
The weekly momentum indicators are still in a gentle incline, versus a gentle decline of the actual share price lows.
The current week's candle is indecisive so far = good after a negative candle in a decline
The gold price is showing a bit of life
2 Year Weekly Chart SLR
Main rationale:
Previous two declines starting Aug 2013 have taken 3 and a bit months. This current decline has taken 3 and a bit months. The series of three rallies starting June 2013 have each returned about 100% over 1-2 months, so I suspect attractive to traders.
Each of the three rallies was preceded by a 'washout' negative volume spike, we've just had a mild spike in neg volume 1st week of Oct.
Also:
The candles have stayed nice and small = low volatility = little urgency of selling, buyers are meeting sellers.
The weekly momentum indicators are still in a gentle incline, versus a gentle decline of the actual share price lows.
The current week's candle is indecisive so far = good after a negative candle in a decline
The gold price is showing a bit of life
2 Year Weekly Chart SLR
MyNamesNotBen
New Member
Shitty management could send even woolworths broke
SilverSanchez
Active Member
Their AISC put them underwater if it were not for their hedge.
They cant survive if these gold prices persist, they are mining such a low amount of ore, they are obviously just trying to mine as little as they can without having to put another mine on care and maintenance. It takes a lot of money to get a mine off C&M, I can understand why they want to avoid it. They have lower cost deposits but none are ready to access.
I was going to buy a chunk until I saw their quarterly, I quickly pulled my order. I tell you what though if they do survive until gold put in a major bottom, their leverage will be legendary, same with PRU and a few other of the previously loved producers.
Im actually excited... but I caution is needed.
They cant survive if these gold prices persist, they are mining such a low amount of ore, they are obviously just trying to mine as little as they can without having to put another mine on care and maintenance. It takes a lot of money to get a mine off C&M, I can understand why they want to avoid it. They have lower cost deposits but none are ready to access.
I was going to buy a chunk until I saw their quarterly, I quickly pulled my order. I tell you what though if they do survive until gold put in a major bottom, their leverage will be legendary, same with PRU and a few other of the previously loved producers.
Im actually excited... but I caution is needed.
bellinvest
New Member
I have some cash sitting with these guys (personally and SMSF).
Plenty to like about their operations and the potential of linking an array of small-mid deposits together to form a brilliant gold enterprise -> but we need some higher gold prices for this to take full effect.
Good mild risk play all-in-all ... if you're a bug which i'm sure the majority of us are!
Time will sort the boys from the men in this sector!
Plenty to like about their operations and the potential of linking an array of small-mid deposits together to form a brilliant gold enterprise -> but we need some higher gold prices for this to take full effect.
Good mild risk play all-in-all ... if you're a bug which i'm sure the majority of us are!
Time will sort the boys from the men in this sector!
Jumped in @ $0.25 last week. Been steady since, with the minor recent gold spike helping. Wait and see now on the spot drop, but getting in at around half book value seemed a decent punt.
Zero bank debt is also nice to see, and that hedging figure offsets any fears of high AISC or drop in spot price.
Sept2014Quarterly said:
Zero bank debt is also nice to see, and that hedging figure offsets any fears of high AISC or drop in spot price.
Yeah well here's the 2 year weekly chart again fwiw. My take - Very high risk buying and giving no encouragement to holders. To note the obvious, the volume is high and has been rising as the price sinks lower. Price has been closing the weeks at or near intra week lows. It got down to around this level in NOvember 2008, that was the all time low, but that was with the end of the GFC emerging and not far off the resumption of gold bull market. There was more cause for optimism about Silver Lake Resources back then.
WEEKLY
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_slr_2_yr_wkly.gif]
[/imgz]
WEEKLY
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_slr_2_yr_wkly.gif]
SilverSanchez
Active Member
This stock having so many big international investors hurt it badly, the fall in the Aussie really accelerated the losses. Same story with Purseus. Institutions were buying SLR and PRU and then abandoned it when things got tough.
SLR still has $200m worth of assets and is undervalued to book price, but I don't know if they have written down anything. They have so many mines in the pipeline but only really few producing assets - they bought big when prices were big and now they are struggling.
Im pretty scared im going to loose my investment due to takeover, but I think they should survive.
They do need the money from the sale of that mill that fell through recently. I would put slr in the same camp as paladin - shined when times were good - but their popularity became their downfall in hard times.
Nobody expected anything from NST when they were 40c pershare, but their assets (which were near life's end, turned out to be extendable) good management there, poor foresight with SLR. I think they will survive - debt free now - but a shell of its former self.
SLR still has $200m worth of assets and is undervalued to book price, but I don't know if they have written down anything. They have so many mines in the pipeline but only really few producing assets - they bought big when prices were big and now they are struggling.
Im pretty scared im going to loose my investment due to takeover, but I think they should survive.
They do need the money from the sale of that mill that fell through recently. I would put slr in the same camp as paladin - shined when times were good - but their popularity became their downfall in hard times.
Nobody expected anything from NST when they were 40c pershare, but their assets (which were near life's end, turned out to be extendable) good management there, poor foresight with SLR. I think they will survive - debt free now - but a shell of its former self.
bellinvest
New Member
At the current price, even a few hundred $$$ could turn into a small fortune should the market turn to the upside in 2015.
95% off sale for these guys.
95% off sale for these guys.
