Silver Just Dropped One Dollar

rara200284 said:
The lower the better. Then I will buy buy buy. Still waiting for a spot price of $16.
Click to expand...


Is that a glass half empty line of thinking? Wouldnt it be better to count on a rising silver price .... instead of "but im not ready" ...
 
Dropped a $1?

Ha, that's not a real drop!

As Cipher would say, "Buckle your seatbelt Dorothy, 'cause Kansas is going bye-bye!"

:)


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Weak Hands Abound.. Every Man and His Dog is Selling into this Small Uptrend.. as Soon as Weak Hands Have Parted With their Cheap Silver at This Level the Train Will Once again Leave the Station

I feel for destressed sellers.. in a world awash with fiat its crazy to see the rout in commodities ..

Imagine if labour had their way AKA carbon and mining tax.. the AUD would be sub 50c and only the oligopoly mining giants would still be in biz (AKA BHP & Rio Tinto!)

Golden opp to buy into commodities at these destressed prices..

The fiat will come home to roost, scarce commodities will rightly adjust to the upside to allow for the excess in fiat printing and creation as debt on banking ledgers

1for1
 
I am glad it dropped because $18 USD is my spot price limit for silver (unless it's rare poured bars).

This allows me to keep the collection of other stuff going again.
 
I don't care. I don't measure my stack in $, only oz's. :P
sarcasm_on_zps2e162f30.gif
 
I got most of the silver buying I was planning on doing done before the end of last year when the spot was around 19 and a half (a little buying either side). I'm glad I did because I know that at least some of the price reduction is going to be down to relative US dollar strength. I know I'm a broken record but even $14.50usd silver is nearly $21aud if we're at $0.70usd/aud.

Even if sliver drops I'm glad I have it as a currency hedge. We're losing whole points of currency value some days. We've gone from 90 to 70 in what? 2 months? I'm happy to be in PM even if it drops another 20%.
 
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=d1
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1798_fut_chartashx20150201.png]
1798_fut_chartashx20150201.png
[/imgz]
Note how the green trend line correlates with the price trend line.
Peak peak
Bottom bottom.
Price impact of 250 Moz (1/4 of an annual supply/demand 1000 Moz).
3 months term fluctuation.
Buy stock for 3 months. Price plus X
Hedge stock. Price plus 2X
Sell stock.
Once price is driven beyond dealer spread (typically a fat 20%), profit, customers at the door to sell back to dealer.
Price minus X
Dealers dump their hedge.
Price minus 2X.
Next!
Nobody left to sell back lower?
Ok, let's repeat! :D

The latest COT report, reflecting end of day 27 januari 2015 shows this for silver:
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 19885 Short 54617
SwapDealer Long 28383 Short 55244
ManagedMoney Long 49408 Short 7686
OtherReportables Long 16314 Short 4689
SmallTraders Long 21197 Short 12951

19885+28383-54617-55244 = -61593
49408+16314+21197-7686-4689-12951 = +61593

The London Fix that day was:
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2015D.gif
$17.87

Amount silver hedged that day on the fluctuations term: 61593 x 5000 = 307,965,000 ounces.
It's the highest amount since 2010.
Based on what is reported. The COT report shows one day every week, so if it was higher on one or more of the other days, we don't know (at least not for free haha).
And the difference higher is not special / remarkable anyway.
I think I'll exercise more patience, for lower prices, instead of paying their hedging dollar stream.
Hang on, next silver coins! :D
 
1for1 said:
Weak Hands Abound.. Every Man and His Dog is Selling into this Small Uptrend.. as Soon as Weak Hands Have Parted With their Cheap Silver at This Level the Train Will Once again Leave the Station

I feel for destressed sellers.. in a world awash with fiat its crazy to see the rout in commodities ..

Imagine if labour had their way AKA carbon and mining tax.. the AUD would be sub 50c and only the oligopoly mining giants would still be in biz (AKA BHP & Rio Tinto!)

Golden opp to buy into commodities at these destressed prices..

The fiat will come home to roost, scarce commodities will rightly adjust to the upside to allow for the excess in fiat printing and creation as debt on banking ledgers

1for1
Click to expand...
To give an idea:

27/01/2015 61593 $17.87
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 19885 Short 54617
SwapDealer Long 28383 Short 55244
ManagedMoney Long 49408 Short 7686
OtherReportables Long 16314 Short 4689
SmallTraders Long 21197 Short 12951

20/01/2015 55641 $17.80
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 20318 Short 52730
SwapDealer Long 28740 Short 51969
ManagedMoney Long 47694 Short 11850
OtherReportables Long 14509 Short 4079
SmallTraders Long 21747 Short 12380

Price difference $17.87-$17.80 = $0.07 so about the same.
Hedge difference 61593-55641 = 5952 x 5000 = 29,760,000 ounces net bought less and/or sold more that week than the week before.
I keep an eye on the evolution of this during the price drop back, as to get an idea about how much lower than before the price may be driven.
A typical bottom hedge is 5000-20000. Recent years it was 10000 so let's take that again.
61593-10000=51593 x 5000 ounces per futures contract = 257,965,000 ounces above the bottom.
Every 70 Moz supply/demand change seems to correspond to 1 price dollar change.
So 258 / 70 = 3.686 price dollars
$17.87-$3.686= $14.2 to target a next purchase within the next 4-6 weeks.
That's a revisit of the previous bottom.
If the multiyear downtrend continues, it will be again lower.
With all the silver stockpiled since 2008, much more than sideways is hard to expect.
Just think the futures markets hedge away already now, haha.
 
you make it sound like silver is what make the markets go round with all the figures on silver.
silver follows gold so if your gonna spend time watching sales and figures then maybe you should be looking at gold.

gold doesn't go up because silver goes up, it's the other way round.
so to answer why silver went $1.50 up is because gold went up, when silver goes down it's not because of supply and demand it's because gold went down, that's it.

so yeah, your looking at the dags of the market, the parts that tail along to the real market, gold
 
miniroo said:
you make it sound like silver is what make the markets go round with all the figures on silver.
silver follows gold so if your gonna spend time watching sales and figures then maybe you should be looking at gold.

gold doesn't go up because silver goes up, it's the other way round.
so to answer why silver went $1.50 up is because gold went up, when silver goes down it's not because of supply and demand it's because gold went down, that's it.

so yeah, your looking at the dags of the market, the parts that tail along to the real market, gold
Click to expand...
You make it sound like you have arguments.
I only see statements.

I also see strawmen.
I didn't say that markets go round on silver.
I said that silver market data indicates a price to come, due to the "futures" kind of dollar-instead-of-metal demand.

I do have some data about gold versus silver.
It indicates the opposite.
Silver price peaks before gold price peaks.

The data, reflects demand and supply. A hedge on the futures market, is a mirror on the cash market.
Price, origins from demand and supply.
It's like you forgot?
 
I don't think that one metal "follows" the other. It's (cumulative large) investor sentiment which tends to drive the price and since these investors probably see both gold and silver in a similar way and invest accordingly, then it just seems that one follows the other. And yes, the deviations in price between the 2 metals can be significant at times....historical charts confirm this.

Therefore, I think analysis like Pirocco gives on silver is worth considering, as difficult as it may be to decipher. :)



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