Silver is Approaching Stage Two of its Bull Market - James Turk

[millededge]

Hmmm, here is where it all starts getting complex

From a global perspective, stacking silver is a truly minority pastime.

If we even take all stackers and lurkers into consideration, most people do not think about stacking. They don't consider silver even once in their entire day. Can you imagine it?

It is a sad but true fact. As true as the sun rises in the morning.

 

[millededge]

GP, is there a polling function here yet? I have an idea...

 

[millededge]

Kitcomm has 28,000 members.

300, 000, 000+ Americans

1.6 billion Chinese

more than a billion Indians

All of them love precious metals in their own historical ways

Good points, but,

Group A Group B

(Americans) (West Europeans) **** (Chinese) (Indians)
300 m 500m **** 1600m 1000m
(avg daily wage in $ - my estimates )
$150 $150 **** $25 $25
( eg. 300 x $150)
45,000 m$ 75,000m$ **** 40,000 25,000

note: rough figures used and the entire population assumed as 'working' - just wanted to show the
qualitative principles)


I think that the West Liberal Precious Metals stacker ( group A ) should not be that 'scared' ( YET !!) of the laaaarge numbers of Chinese and Indians (group B )
slowly waking up to the world of Precious Metals.

Popluation of group B is roughly around 3 times larger than group A and for as long as average daily wages of A > B ( when measured in $US !! ) is more than 3,
things will still be ok for group A. ***

*** assuming the status quo continues and no sudden swarms of black swans showing up and pooping

but thats me,..

yes, but half of group A has a culture of debt and poor savings with a 100 trillion+ wrecking ball shackled to their collective ankles

and half of group B has a culture of savings, the manufacturing sector and is the creditor with a couple trill in USD to burn

the Europeans in group A - do they include the Ruskis?

 

[millededge]

Consider property.

I very much doubt that Gold/Silver investing will become as saturated as housing was/is.

I can't see it either, but the prospect of the disintegration of our monetary system is something I can't really grasp at all either, as history is the only guide as through the eyes of historians

 

[THUCYDIDES79]

POLLS ! POLLS ! POLLS !

 

[THUCYDIDES79]

the Ruskis are a mix but closer to Asians ( in respect to views on money and stuff, - and i said closer , nothing more nothing less )

 

[kram]

Consider property.

I very much doubt that Gold/Silver investing will become as saturated as housing was/is.

Bang on.

Maybe someone that experienced the tech bubble can give us some indicators of how things were rolling in that period

 

[mickjohn]

Consider property.

I very much doubt that Gold/Silver investing will become as saturated as housing was/is.

I can't see it either, but the prospect of the disintegration of our monetary system is something I can't really grasp at all either, as history is the only guide as through the eyes of historians

+1 again.

I must admit I think we are further along in the cycle than we all think. I think that we have been in stage 2 for a little while.

While it is nice to think that we have got in early, Silver has been booming for years. It would be naive to think that this is still just the start of the bullrun.

Id love silver to fly to the moon, but I have a suspicion that everyones perception of the $ value that high are as varied as the comments in this thread.
If you dont have an exit strategy and you are stacking it may be a good idea to reassess whether you are investing or hoarding.

 

[hawkeye]

I don't know where exactly we currently are but I've been watching silver for a few years and very closely for a year now. I had some doubts early on even after I'd bought heavily into Silver 2 years ago.

The doubts have all but disappeared now. I can see the excitement slowly but steadily building. I understand now how you get the gradual build-up for awhile before it just goes viral or parabolic. I don't know about the phases, I think they are only rough anyway, but what can't be denied is that it is building. How far out from top, I would say at only a very rough guess I think at least 2-3 years, but I'm not going by that, I'm monitoring the situation so that I'll see(hopefully) if it is sooner or later.

What fascinates me the most about this is the psychology. I think if someone were to present a detailed scientific study on how this happens it would be very interesting.

 

[hawkeye]

Consider property.

I very much doubt that Gold/Silver investing will become as saturated as housing was/is.

I can't see it either, but the prospect of the disintegration of our monetary system is something I can't really grasp at all either, as history is the only guide as through the eyes of historians

I believe it was this fear that caused the blow-off top in 1980 and I believe it is this fear, that people think our monetary system is about to collapse, that will do roughly the same thing again, but probably to a larger degree.

 

[mickjohn]

.... groupthink?

Gotta keep up with the Jones.

They dont have silver.... why the **** would i want it?
Gold....? what am i going to do with that?

 

[hawkeye]

Here's a good article by Denninger about parabolic blow-offs
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=2411685

Go ahead folks, buy the parabola. Remember Microstrategy, which sucked in so many people. For those who forget, here's the split-adjusted chart from 1999 and 2000.

This is the pyramid scheme you're currently involved in with stocks like Netflix. With the belief that "it's all ok" and you should "buy all dips."

And while I'm sure you're convinced you're good enough, and fast enough, to figure out when the bubble will pop, and you'll get out with a huge profit, in 2000 you only had to be off by three days to lose 2/3rds of your money, and only by one day to lose half.

If you believe you're that good you're deluding yourself.

Then again, throughout history the people who listen to the crooners, and buy into these insanities, always are.

Having to only be out by 1 day to lose half your money is pretty scary.

 

[Ridesags]

POLLS ! POLLS ! POLLS !

Thanks for the link

 

[Bulawan pilak]

With all these internet ads saying $250 silver prices, I think I will be happy to sell all at $249 just before everyone else...lol..I could take the $1 ounce hit.

 

[RMP]

I've been a lurker for 1 month now. I started stacking in January '11. I enjoy this forum quite a bit and have currently stacked 40% of my goal for 2011.

 

[Ossie]

wow 40% in 1 month

either a small target or massive binge?

 

[lakesentrance]

I've been a lurker for 1 month now. I started stacking in January '11. I enjoy this forum quite a bit and have currently stacked 40% of my goal for 2011.

Welcome RMP ... it's a great forum. Keep stackin at that rate. I started in Dec '10, went well over my budget, but managed quite fine. Should be knocking off some debt, but these guys just keep offering such good deals, I can't resist.

 

[RMP]

Thanks for the welcome! I wouldn't consider my goal too small, but I am expecting to more than double it. The last month was definately a binge. I am still one of the guys hoping the POS will drop.

 

[rbaggio]

We're in Phase 3?

Err .... no.

[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/478_rally2.png]

[/imgz]

src: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKjb-6YMNuM

 

[lakesentrance]

that's a mean lookin chart.

Looking at the first one, had me concerned