Silver Investing - Going Against The Grain

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damien192x

New Member
I just bought another 30 coins. Now I paid a few dollar premium on these. I'm not too fussed because I want to hold for 3-4 years while watching the market. It's funny - At 21 with no knowledge of my own my Finance Manager at work advised me to purchase US dollars and wait for the drop back to 70-80c.. So I went out and traded $2000 AUD with $2000 USD, stashed it under my bed and watched the TV every day. Then I got frustrated because it was hovering around 1:1 and not going anywhere. So I did my own research over a few months, hours of youtube videos, hours of charts, ebooks, financial forums and boy did it open my eyes to the US dollar being abused and FIAT money in general. It's amazing - everyone I talk to have no idea how Fractional Reserve Banking works.

Now with my risk profile, and on a decent salary/still living at home, I am starting to sink quite a bit into PMs. I look at all the facts, fundamentals, and news that is presented to me, and I am just about 100% convinced that this is a good asset class to be in. I had made up my mind when silver was around $20, but I ran it past my finance manager and he steered me away. Now stupid me thought "I've got to listen to people" - so I held off!

It's hard to go against colleagues, parents, family.. Everyone calls me crazy/paranoid and won't have a bar of it. But I still think I am right. The advice I get from them all is to "Negatively gear a property' "Invest in US stocks because they're on sale at the moment" "buy mutual funds" .. "Buy stocks for the long term and forget about them - you can't time the market" That to me seems like a load of crap!!

I guess my question is - how do you stick to your guns? See it through to the end? At the moment I just watch video blogs each night, read forums and charts, and remind myself that the fundamentals are there. I see the trends, I make the predictions, then it happens, but fear and running it by other people has screwed me over time and time again. I need the confidence to trust myself, but I still think because of my age, that I don't know enough to do it myself! :(
 
Listen to your inner self, keep an eye on this forum and remember the old saying " expert " an ex is a has been and a spert is a drip under pressure.
 
most people fear the unkown and fear not running with the sheep....
 
I dont think any of us rest 100% easy becase investing a large portion of your wealth in any investment is always scary and brings great risk, yes even Silver.

I'm up about 40% on my investment, including premiums and postage costs yet I still have those moments where I tell myself to get out while the going is good and say to myself "this run up of Silver is too good to be true, you have never been lucky in life - sell"

But the truth is I'm too greedy and lazy to sell all my Silver....so I'm in it for the long run baby!

Just go with your heart and realise since the herd are not doing what we are doing, it's very likely Silver is still a very good investment. The fundamentals have no changed. Silver is getting rarer by the day and the US is still printing money and the world economy isnt getting any better.

Keep stacking.
 
Slap them around a bit with a couple 1kg bars
If they still don't believe you ,try 5kg bars
Or don't approach the subject & tell them you spend your
$ on drugs & hookers
 
Damien lnvestments always have an element of risk to them so if you cant take risks put your money in the bank .Nothing is 100% certain
 
Well - worst case scenario is your investments value goes to 0. I can't see how it could ever be totally worthless, unless its stolen or burnt down. So I diversify where I hold it. I am in for the long haul.... I think the good thing about holding physical is that if the panic sets in, I can't log on to some site and panic sell. There I go again, seeking validation. LOL. I might just stay on here and read a few bullish posts every now and again
 
I stick to my guns by knowing why I invested in something in the first place. If you have done the research, set your goals, know how to recognise when it is going right and going wrong and what to do about each, you should be pretty right. Always plan for best and worst case scenarios.

I'll give you an example. We (my wife and I) were buying real estate in a regional area at one stage. We could by a normal 2-3 bedroom house and get an 18-25% rental return. I had run the numbers and knew (as much as I could) the ups and downs of the investments. At first we used to discuss our purchases with friends and family. ALL said we were crazy - even the real estate agents selling the houses to us! "Why would you want to buy in the country?" "Why would you want to deal with tenants" "There will be no capital growth" etc etc. If you can think of a negative - it was said to us. There were many times we were doubtful we were doing the right thing but we kept going back to WHY we bought, our goals and how to recognise if it wasn't working. We kept saying that with a 10 year loan, each property was paying ALL expenses and leaving us with between $10-$100 per week cash in our pockets. In 10 years we would own them outright and not have put 1 cent into them - in fact we were taking money out! Even if the properties halved in value - we would still own assets that had cost us nothing at all. How could this be wrong???? I even showed some people the numbers and took them through the houses. Everyone thought we were nuts.

About 4-5 years later those houses were hot property. Everyone wanted to buy because of the rental returns and capital growth over the last 3-4 years. We had some of the same friends and family tell us we should be buying. Mind you - the houses were now 4 times what we had paid for them and the rental return was back to about 5-6%. We eventually sold out of some of the houses to pay out the remaining loans quicker and leave us with assets fully paid for and returning good (almost) passive income every week. I almost laugh sometimes at how close we came to believing our "friends and family" and not buying.

Remember that EVERYONE has a bias. Some like shares, some real estate and some PMs. It doesn't mean they are right or wrong. I steer away from investments in wine and stamps because I know nothing about them and have no interest. Doesn't make them good or bad but would influence any advice I gave to anyone about investing because I would subconsciously steer them away from wine or stamps.

Know WHY you are investing, HOW you are investing, WHAT are the pros and cons and WHAT you will do about them. Always have an escape plan in place. LISTEN to advice but make sure you know where it is coming from and what bias the person has. Above all - have a go, have some fun and have a laugh. You'll learn loads.

malachii
 
There are so many positive value factors that make silver a wise investment. A few I can think of.

Low confidence in the dollar.

The huge increase in demand for PV solar energy and other electronics.

Finite resource and continual new technological applications.

Emergence of third world nations to industrial powerhouses.

Increased spending power for the above nations.

High gold price (Silver gets pulled along)

PM's a safe haven, investing increases demand.

Volatility of mining business and it's direct effect on co-production of silver from base metals.

Nanotechnology / Semiconductivity / Superconductivity.

There are probably many more, to me these are the obvious ones.
 
renovator said:
Damien lnvestments always have an element of risk to them so if you cant take risks put your money in the bank .Nothing is 100% certain
Click to expand...

Or:

Putting your money in the bank always has an element of risk to it, so if you can't take risks, buy gold.

Nothing is without risk.
 
Forge said:
renovator said:
Damien lnvestments always have an element of risk to them so if you cant take risks put your money in the bank .Nothing is 100% certain
Click to expand...

Or:

Putting your money in the bank always has an element of risk to it, so if you can't take risks, buy gold.

Nothing is without risk.
Click to expand...
is there an echo here? didnt i just say nothing is 100% certain
 
If your prepared to write off your whole investment. Then there is nothing to fear =D.

Slam
 
Slam said:
If your prepared to write off your whole investment. Then there is nothing to fear =D.
Click to expand...

+1

Always remember, never take advice at face value. Listen to it, and treasure it, yet do what is right for yourself. It's not their money you're investing, it is yours.
 
Slam said:
If your prepared to write off your whole investment. Then there is nothing to fear =D.

Slam
Click to expand...

Instead of writing off the whole investment - why not set acceptable stop losses on the way down with amounts to be sold at each level. This way you protect your investment capital. To me (and this is a personal thing - I'm not having a go at anyone) if I went in thinking "all or nothing" it would be more gambling than investing.

malachii
 
Also - with the industrial demand increasing, and all the projections - what year will we "run out" of silver if we go at this consumption rate ? Do we have enough for 10 years? 20 ? etc. That's one bit of info I havent found yet. THankyou all
 
No, the industrial demand is not really there. Much of it is poor forecasts in the same way the property industry makes poor forecasts regarding the "property shortage".

In saying that, the story is well out there now and people have started hoarding more and more silver. This will make the "shortage" a self fulfilling prophecy. This is why I bought in. Bull markets run more on sentiment with only the barest of fundamentals.

There will be a point where the price increases come to an end and at that point there will be a lot of dishoarding and silver will plummet. It's happened before and will happen again.

Keep on your toes, don't blindly believe the spruiking and keep on reading, watching, learning until YOU understand it. Do that and I expect you will make a lot of money from this silver run.
 
damien192x said:
I guess my question is - how do you stick to your guns? See it through to the end? At the moment I just watch video blogs each night, read forums and charts, and remind myself that the fundamentals are there. I see the trends, I make the predictions, then it happens, but fear and running it by other people has screwed me over time and time again. I need the confidence to trust myself, but I still think because of my age, that I don't know enough to do it myself! :(
Click to expand...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=te6qG4yn-Ps

You take the blue pill damien192x

We are trained from birth into doctrine and dogma. We are told how to think, what to say and what to do.

The answer to your question lies within the individual. The ability to put aside what you've learned and reshape your ideals by what you rationalise as an individual.

This is what lead me down the path of becoming an Objectivist. You'll see it in my discussions with posters on this forum, even when I'm facing others alone in contesting my ideals I merely smile and stand by my position.

It comes from confidence, understanding, belief and ultimate value in the individual.

I listen to reason and logic of others, but I value my own opinion above all.

It's within the individual that we define all other values. When you can effectively 'unplug' from the matrix and value your own mind, you find the answer to your question.

I went to seek how far the rabbit hole goes and it was the most intense and liberating experience of my life.

I don't fear anything. I am not intimidated by anyone. I live and breathe my own values and I value myself above all others.

It's through this process that I learned to stick to my guns without fear, without doubt and with total conviction of belief.
 
You've simply chosen a path of self enlightenment damien192x. Pretty soon, others will be asking you for financial advice. Only problem is by then you should be onto the next thing that'll be too risky for them (like PM's are now).

By the time you've divested your PM's everyone will be coming onto the bandwagon. By then Real Estate or Shares will be set for a reboot, but the crowd will still be remembering the hiding that they got when they crashed.

You can't rely on others for advice... not even us here...not even Boston's ;)

All you can do is keep testing your theories and predictions out in the REAL world. See that they still hold true based on observation and analysis...not on 'gut feel' or 'belief'. The moment you're not reassured, it's time to revisit what you're doing and try something else.
 
Auspm said:
damien192x said:
I guess my question is - how do you stick to your guns? See it through to the end? At the moment I just watch video blogs each night, read forums and charts, and remind myself that the fundamentals are there. I see the trends, I make the predictions, then it happens, but fear and running it by other people has screwed me over time and time again. I need the confidence to trust myself, but I still think because of my age, that I don't know enough to do it myself! :(
Click to expand...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=te6qG4yn-Ps

You take the blue pill damien192x

We are trained from birth into doctrine and dogma. We are told how to think, what to say and what to do.

The answer to your question lies within the individual. The ability to put aside what you've learned and reshape your ideals by what you rationalise as an individual.

This is what lead me down the path of becoming an Objectivist. You'll see it in my discussions with posters on this forum, even when I'm facing others alone in contesting my ideals I merely smile and stand by my position.

It comes from confidence, understanding, belief and ultimate value in the individual.

I listen to reason and logic of others, but I value my own opinion above all.

It's within the individual that we define all other values. When you can effectively 'unplug' from the matrix and value your own mind, you find the answer to your question.

I went to seek how far the rabbit hole goes and it was the most intense and liberating experience of my life.

I don't fear anything. I am not intimidated by anyone. I live and breathe my own values and I value myself above all others.

It's through this process that I learned to stick to my guns without fear, without doubt and with total conviction of belief.
Click to expand...


Auspm, from the way you talk I assume you may well have already experienced it, but if not, you seem (from your posts) like one who would really appreciate a psychedelic experience, mind expansion etc. Just a thought :) (serious)
 
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