Silver Institute - world supply & demand chart

[Apis Mellifera]

Hi all,

I just found the Silver Institute page and came across their 'supply and demand' chart.
It's interesting to see that the demand for coin & bars has been increased over the years (You hoarders! lol)

Yet... It seems that supply seems to meet the demand in 2014, so I'm interested to see what 2015 figures are.

Just wondering if any one is familiar the Institute work and/or what your thoughts are

Source: https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/

Source:

 

[Miloman]

Personally I don't think many would find these numbers to be very reliable at all.

Looks pretty rather than accurate. This subject has been the topic of conversations in the past.

 

[Pirocco]

I find them highly usable, since stacking is saving, and the bigger the hoard out there the more that will be sold later on, suppressing a price uptrend the same degree it inforced it.
One thing to take into account: the figures get revised in later years. Not the totals, but the sections.

 

[The Crow]

So much of the demand (e.g. roughly 20% in 2014) is going into coins and bars, i.e. storage, that the deficit really is close to meaningless. There is really no deficit as, depending upon price, all of that storage is still available. The same can be said for an undoubtedly large portion of the industrial demand: the amount available for recycling will be dependent upon price and cost of recovery. I would say that these figures show that supply readily outstrips demand at the current price with potential to keep doing so even in the event of prices rises.

 

[TreasureHunter]

This demand is holding the price at the current level. Should stackers hoard less/lose faith, we'll enter a silver deflation.
Everyone "sitting" on their "little" treasure chest.

 

[Pirocco]

This demand is holding the price at the current level. Should stackers hoard less/lose faith, we'll enter a silver deflation.
Everyone "sitting" on their "little" treasure chest.

Let's focus on the peak year, 2011 with its $35.
Where "deflation" started.
Most price-changing effects of the last decade undid eachother (a major one was photography drop compensated by industrial applications increase)
Coins&bars was (and still is) 4-5 times the 2004 level. annually 50>200-250 Moz.
Silver ETF's didn't exist in 2004 so zero start, and were an annual average demand of 70 Moz until 2012.
However, in 2011 they net sold.
Year / Moz / price
2004 0.0 $6.6711
2005 0.0 $7.3164
2006 157.8 > 126.8 $11.5452
2007 54.8 $13.3836
2008 101.3 $14.9891
2009 153.8 > 156.9 $14.6733
2010 132.6 > 129.5 $20.1928
2011 -24.0 $35.1192
2012 55.1 $31.1497
TOTAL2004-2012 631.4 RATE 70.156
2013 1.6 $20.0858
2014 1.4
TOTAL2004-2014 603.4

As one can see, since 2013, ETF's ceased to add, and this demand disappearance was a main cause of the price drop.
First partly compensated for by the futures market entities, the hedgers alike dealers that wanna hedge their stock against price drops.
But the annual average futures markets component (based on their total net position) within the prince dropped big time in 2013.
Before 2011, their average sat on its peak during several years. The $15>$35 price increase was the combination of stackers, ETF stockpiling, and futures market.
The first one stayed, the middle one has gone, the latter dropped > increased again, and was in 2015 the same as in 2011.
Futures 2015 average: 38064 (bogus demand of 190 Moz)
Futures 2014 average: 28959 (bogus demand of 145 Moz)
Futures 2013 average: 21513 (bogus demand of 108 Moz)
Futures 2012 average: 34031 (bogus demand of 170 Moz)
Futures 2011 average: 35699 (bogus demand of 178 Moz)
The staying one, coins & bars hoarded in the decade 2004-2014 1420 Moz.
The coming decades, these will be sold again.
And that other hoard, the ETF one, and to not forget the exchanges stock since years hanging around 160 Moz, may also be thrown for sale.
So no, there's no rosy outlook, at least not in terms of purchasing power.
Due to those same stories that were once used to draw rosy outlooks: alot buying, shortage, hurry to your local bullion shop btw I'm selling silver!
That's inevitable as long as people don't throw their hoards in the ocean, and instead sell them again.
Let's now hope for a generation suckers that just like in 2011 long had forgotten the 1980 story.
One thing is however sure: it's now a better time to hoard than it has been the last 7 years. Especially if the currency that you wanna get rid of, is "strong".
But a sell, lol, gonna need alot coffee and grey hairs to make it again "high".
See, suckers learn, too.