Silver heading down. Sub US $20 back on the cards?
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swoydaz said:
As in DCA? I was doing this until Wrcmad pointed out that it is a myth. I don't do it anymore for the short term but I'll still buy a gram of gold and a couple of ounces silver every week for the retirement fund as I'd otherwise spend it on useless crap/nights out.
As for sub $20, I'd say it's quite likely... Maybe $15 but it'll be short lived. Main thing is that anyone's guess is as good as the next persons. There'll always be some dry talcum powder if such a low eventuates. Who actually needs two kidneys, livers or lungs?
Load of Bullion
Well-Known Member
Sub $20 = time to buy. My silver fundamental.
SilverPete said:
Was it ever off the cards
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I'm scrapping as fast as I can here, beautiful day in melbourne so it's a pleasure to be outside smashing things up.
I kinda have a feeling how people felt during the gold rush, if it's on it's on, and silver is on, scrap metal is abundant, it's great!
Scrap steel is currently at $200 tonne at my local yard, that's the highest price in a couple years.
at a time when PM's are dropping and china apparently have an over supply of scrap steel, i'd of thought it would go down not up.
if your in australia, it's time to clean out the garage of anything steel, the old fridge/freezer, lawnmower, car parts etc and convert it to silver!
I kinda have a feeling how people felt during the gold rush, if it's on it's on, and silver is on, scrap metal is abundant, it's great!
Scrap steel is currently at $200 tonne at my local yard, that's the highest price in a couple years.
at a time when PM's are dropping and china apparently have an over supply of scrap steel, i'd of thought it would go down not up.
if your in australia, it's time to clean out the garage of anything steel, the old fridge/freezer, lawnmower, car parts etc and convert it to silver!
crazy hippo
New Member
it can't go back to the pre recession price... you have to take into account the costs of doing business in the world market, shipping costs are up, here in the UK VAT went up 5%. the list goes on.
hope for the best prepare for the worst.
hope for the best prepare for the worst.
SilverPete said:
As Pirocco pointed out, it was $5 only a few years ago, and that price kept for 18 (or 14?) years. $20/oz is a crazy price, and of course all costs have gone up since silver was $5, but by how much? 20%? If so, silver should now be $6. And that's where I expect it to be, in 2-3 years time.
Argentum
Well-Known Member
if it does go to something crazy like $10-15 it cant sustain that price for long it would rebound as it would not be feasible for many mines to mine it. You also have to remember that silver to go that much down cant be an isolated incident; gold would go down too, as would probably a lot of other commodities, which would mean even more mine closures forcing eventually (by eventually i dont mean years) a quick surge in price for all metals affected. So the worst case scenario for us stackers(that hope for a rise in pm) is that the price stays close to the cost of mining it thereby sustaining just enough the mining companies so that they dont close.
This is true. It is also true that silver and gold can stay lower than production costs for a lot longer than many miners can remain in business.
Do not discount this possibility. This in turn would provide the energy for a much high price in the future. Less miners, less supply with an increasing demand.
This is why the small miners are a much riskier investment on a falling price approaching production costs.
Never say never.
Do not discount this possibility. This in turn would provide the energy for a much high price in the future. Less miners, less supply with an increasing demand.
This is why the small miners are a much riskier investment on a falling price approaching production costs.
Never say never.
I think Gold will rebound off US$1180 for the third time making a triple bottom. It should be all uphill from there. Silver will follow it down to what ever price (does not really matter). If Gold breaches that US$1180 level, who knows how low it and silver will go. I am hoping gold and silver will trend up from there.
what's the average time frame people here are stacking for?
2 years, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years?
I'm guessing on average most stackers are looking for a 10 year deal, young ones are looking to be set up in 10 years,
oldies are looking to retire comfortably in 10 or so years.
So who really cares about silver mines closing down, unlike gold, silver is needed to make things, if they don't mine it anymore
then what's out there will be used up, hopefully really cheap, $8 - $14 oz.
when it's used up they will go get more, that's when it's true value will be realised, 16/1 will be on again,
they can't make silver 16/1 when gold is so high, bring gold down and reset silver to 16/1 from there.
2 years, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years?
I'm guessing on average most stackers are looking for a 10 year deal, young ones are looking to be set up in 10 years,
oldies are looking to retire comfortably in 10 or so years.
So who really cares about silver mines closing down, unlike gold, silver is needed to make things, if they don't mine it anymore
then what's out there will be used up, hopefully really cheap, $8 - $14 oz.
when it's used up they will go get more, that's when it's true value will be realised, 16/1 will be on again,
they can't make silver 16/1 when gold is so high, bring gold down and reset silver to 16/1 from there.
If the central banks vault doors ever open - and gold flows out, 15:1 will be conservative.
As I understand it, the total silver in hand is about five times the quantity of gold in-hand.
Silver is constantly in a depletion process, has to be mined to maintain the in-hand quantity.
On the other hand, gold is not depleted, and continues to increase the in-hand quantity as more is mined.
On the graph that I am visualizing, there is a vanishing point where gold-in-hand-&-dirt exceeds silver-in-hand-&-dirt, until such times as gold comes from a source outside the land and seas of the earth.
When the gold above and below ground exceeds all silver above and below ground, 15:1 GSR, may become 15:1 SGR.
As I understand it, the total silver in hand is about five times the quantity of gold in-hand.
Silver is constantly in a depletion process, has to be mined to maintain the in-hand quantity.
On the other hand, gold is not depleted, and continues to increase the in-hand quantity as more is mined.
On the graph that I am visualizing, there is a vanishing point where gold-in-hand-&-dirt exceeds silver-in-hand-&-dirt, until such times as gold comes from a source outside the land and seas of the earth.
When the gold above and below ground exceeds all silver above and below ground, 15:1 GSR, may become 15:1 SGR.
Yes, I had thought 'accessible' was understood, but it is worth pointing out.BiGs said:
In truth, all of it is always accessible. Just a matter of cost. As you say, cannot be destroyed.
So one could make the argument that there will always be more silver than gold above and below ground.
I'm surprised that wasn't your point.
When GSR is reversed to SGR, land fills will be mined no doubt, for that expensive silver.
Well, I'll show you mine, if you show me yours.BiGs said:
It may have to do with that "usable" part. Is gold in central banks 'usable'?, Well, yes and no.
Here is my source.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...mageroot/2013/03/demonocracy-embed-silver.jpg
Regisilver
New Member
Cheepo said:
What? Now that, sir, is preposterous. The price of getting it out of the ground is up a mite more than 20%, I'd venture to guess.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Yep. It's all a matter of the size of the stockpile out there.tolly_67 said:
For the average price trend, it actually doesn't matter if it's all sold in one go or over the period of a couple decades.
Compare the period 1997-2003 (Moz/year):
- Net Government Purchases -57.314/YEAR
- Implied Net Investment -37.457/YEAR
- Jewelry 164.514/YEAR
- Coins & Medals 31.029/YEAR
with the period 2004-2012:
- Net Government Purchases -39.833/YEAR
- Implied Net Investment 75.867/YEAR
- Jewelry 184.333/YEAR
- Coins & Medals 68.489/YEAR
What do we see:
1) 1997-2003 were 7 years implied investment of -37,5 Moz per year.
2004-2012 were 9 years implied investment of 75,9 Moz per year, almost tripled (from minus to positive)
2) 1997-2003 were 7 years coins & medals investment of 31 Moz per year.
2004-2012 were 9 years coins & medals investment of 68,5 Moz per year, thus doubled.
3) 1997-2003 were 7 years government investment of -57,3 Moz per year.
2004-2012 were 9 years government investment of -39,9 Moz per year, so dropped to a 70% of before level.
Combined rate of investment 1997-2003: -63.8 Moz per year (negative so disinvestment years), totaling to 446.6 Moz sold over 7 years.
Combined rate of investment 2004-2012: 104.5 Moz per year (positive so investment years), totaling to 940.5 Moz bought over 9 years.
Now, the price 1997-2003 stayed around $5, meaning that the disinvestment compensated for rising demand (rate 63.8 Moz per year).
So if we assume the same balancing/compensating over 2004-2012, it gives 104.5/63.8=1,64 times more years, so 7 x 1.64=11,5 years price hang from 2012 onwards. Or at least a decade to go from now.
So it's clear, there is no hurry to add to the stack!
Crises are not what alot think. From the central planners perspective, a crisis is nothing but an attempt to make bank depositors waste their deposits on products whose prices earlier got bloated by entities/buddies of the central planners. Then those buddies pay back the for-free derived deposits to the central banks, and bingo, the former bank deposits get destroyed, so the new money spenders don't face the competition of the old money around. And since the deposits dropped, the central banks can again increase intrest rates, the intrest payments cost them then less annually, and a new cycle started. Rinse and repeat!