Silver has officially hit rock bottom
- Thread starter SilverDJ
- Start date
Where do you think we are in the cycle?
One thing to also be aware of, in the past 60s,70s,80s. Communications and information doesnt flow like what it is today. I'm not sure you can apply the same timeframe of rise, I'd be keeping this in mind, we have the internet today. Im trying to work out an exit strategy and potential timeframes.
Case in point the 1980s run up, if the bottom was 1977/1978, it took 4 years to build the base from 1974 to 1978, the run up took 2 years to 1980. If we look at our current timeframe the base took from 2013 till 2023. (10 years), break out 24, looking at a similar chart timeline, we could be in a bull market for 5 years. Taking it up to 2029/2030. Now given the amount of information these days, I'd discount a full timeline for it to play out, I'd say we may reach a top in 2-3 years at the current rates. The other thing is, will we still be trading back into fiat or will a reset happen. We really are living in unprecedented times.
.Where do you think we are in the cycle?
One thing to also be aware of, in the past 60s,70s,80s. Communications and information doesnt flow like what it is today. I'm not sure you can apply the same timeframe of rise, I'd be keeping this in mind, we have the internet today. Im trying to work out an exit strategy and potential timeframes.
Case in point the 1980s run up, if the bottom was 1977/1978, it took 4 years to build the base from 1974 to 1978, the run up took 2 years to 1980. If we look at our current timeframe the base took from 2013 till 2023. (10 years), break out 24, looking at a similar chart timeline, we could be in a bull market for 5 years. Taking it up to 2029/2030. Now given the amount of information these days, I'd discount a full timeline for it to play out, I'd say we may reach a top in 2-3 years at the current rates. The other thing is, will we still be trading back into fiat or will a reset happen. We really are living in unprecedented times.
At a guess I think we are about the same point as the start of 1979 where the price reaches the earlier high making a big smiley face pattern. I have been working off a 3:1 ratio for years. It is the same with the gold pattern. This would give 3 more years till the end of this bull run but I will be watching price. $50 in 1980 is over $500 now.
I'm afraid we are at the "new paradigm" stage of the bubble...
There's been, a vertical climb, In the price of silver.
Which causes silver to be pulled out of places and sold into the demand.
Some of that demand: Investors, who have gone gangbuster in the expectation that industry is in shortfall.
And now... The price is falling...
However... is the price increase in silver likely to pull enough silver back out of investor hands to provide for the industrial shortage?
Or has that strategy now played out, and the next one, based on fear, just getting started?
How much is "stuck" in the biological mines, vs igneous deposits?
and what's the process to get the silver out of where it is held?
Is a rise in the price of silver going to help the world GET/mine/attain, or more strategically use, this resource?
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This is an update to the chart posted:
Time to sell?
It represents a combination of silver, copper, zinc, lead and gold prices, relative to their contribution of supply of Silver from primary mines of their particular type.
If the price of silver goes up (or down) it affects the movement only a fraction.
I chart this as a supply force factor for getting silver out of the GROUND.
------------------------
Meanwhile:
This is a chart of a test/demo account gone long at leverage at the top, with no stop loss (not expecting to drop below $50usd)
Mind you, its at 10:1 and exposure is 6000oz.
But as you can see, silver can be obtained from various sources based on price action...
When the fear is on, those that HOLD it may want to return it.
But those with leverage will have it taken from them, contributing to the fall...
IMO the local top is in.
But be that as it may, If mine supply doesn't get the funding it needs from the various inputs to attain it, the market of FEAR will run out.
And they/we-all will have more to gain from investors who hold physical, who will supply the need for actual silver, who aren't leveraged to the hilt, by way of the same price action that will also help to acquire more from those that will get it from the earth, recycling and thrifting.
A little profit taking isn't always a bad thing.
But who knows?
The world is changing and as others have mentioned inflation adjusted the price is extremely low considering its availability and rate of consumption.
There's been, a vertical climb, In the price of silver.
Which causes silver to be pulled out of places and sold into the demand.
Some of that demand: Investors, who have gone gangbuster in the expectation that industry is in shortfall.
And now... The price is falling...
However... is the price increase in silver likely to pull enough silver back out of investor hands to provide for the industrial shortage?
Or has that strategy now played out, and the next one, based on fear, just getting started?
How much is "stuck" in the biological mines, vs igneous deposits?
and what's the process to get the silver out of where it is held?
Is a rise in the price of silver going to help the world GET/mine/attain, or more strategically use, this resource?
-----------------------------------------------
This is an update to the chart posted:
Time to sell?
It represents a combination of silver, copper, zinc, lead and gold prices, relative to their contribution of supply of Silver from primary mines of their particular type.
If the price of silver goes up (or down) it affects the movement only a fraction.
I chart this as a supply force factor for getting silver out of the GROUND.
------------------------
Meanwhile:
This is a chart of a test/demo account gone long at leverage at the top, with no stop loss (not expecting to drop below $50usd)
Mind you, its at 10:1 and exposure is 6000oz.
But as you can see, silver can be obtained from various sources based on price action...
When the fear is on, those that HOLD it may want to return it.
But those with leverage will have it taken from them, contributing to the fall...
IMO the local top is in.
But be that as it may, If mine supply doesn't get the funding it needs from the various inputs to attain it, the market of FEAR will run out.
And they/we-all will have more to gain from investors who hold physical, who will supply the need for actual silver, who aren't leveraged to the hilt, by way of the same price action that will also help to acquire more from those that will get it from the earth, recycling and thrifting.
A little profit taking isn't always a bad thing.
But who knows?
The world is changing and as others have mentioned inflation adjusted the price is extremely low considering its availability and rate of consumption.
Last edited: