Trading the drop:
It has been publicised for well over a year that the $26 support was a key level, which if broken would make an excellent short trade.
Long-term support lines with constant testing like this one don't come along very often:
Entry level (short) = 2582
Stop loss = 2612 (30 pips)
Margin required per 500oz contract = USD$189
First target was weak support at $23.
Risk:rewards = 1:7.5 (they don't come much better than this)
Exit level = 2316 (stopped out)
Profit per contract = USD$1330 = 700% in 4 days.
This trade reduced the average buy price for my physical stack by around $3 per oz.
My average buy price for the
last 18 months is now well under $20 per oz, and some purchases were made in the $30's.
I have said it before, and I will say it again:
Fundamental analysis approaches the price decision-making process by
attempting to determine intrinsic value using available information, extrapolated by interpretation and translation which often contains a phsycological bias (eg. to da' moon). The problem with fundamental analysis is that it assumes information is disseminated perfectly and acted on rationally. Most stackers will tell you this does not happen in real markets (eg cartel), but ironically, their investment strategy is based on these two contradictory observations.
Technical analysis approaches the price decision-making process by examining the market for the instrument itself using data such as price, volume, open interest etc. It is not concerned with the value of whatever underlies the financial instrument, but with how the forces of supply and demand are impacting upon it's price.
In short: Fundamental analysis tells us what
should happen to prices, technical analysis tells us what
is happening to prices.
Ignore market forces at your own peril.
