Silver Charting and Silver TA Chat

I'm beginning to think the safest thing to do is go to bed. My problem - I was sitting there hoping for a Silver bump and an exit point to my remaining April Calls, and it stayed flatlined. Then Gold went down, so I saw all these June and July Call bargains - and with a sucking noise my dry powder went back into the Pokie machine :D ...and then Gold slid down another stair. Some days it's just not worth losing the sleep.

Apart from a token amount of cash and a single Silver April Put I'm pretty much all in (and underwater) on Call stupids - so time will tell (but a nice spike in both would be an improved end to my week).
 
Well, the big boys got their rout du jour... My little Silver stop loss went from 12c to 99c, and is back at 75c, and tempting as it is to take a profit, I have a nasty feeling it is gonna be needed on Monday.
 
The way I see it we have record short positions now which means if the shorts want to drive the price even lower they will need to add even more short positions going to an even higher record or the shorts will profit take/cover(which means they then become buyers) it could snap up quickly. whats the most probable?

1. More shorts setting new record driving the price down

2 Profit taking. Driving the price up.

3 sideways

4 other

B.
 
AQ said:
thatguy said:
weekly close @ 25.99... this has got a "setup feel" to it
Click to expand...

whats ur opinion for silver come Monday?
rise or fall further?
Click to expand...
Where it stopped has me spooked, the GSR has me spooked an the miners lagging has me spooked. If it would have closed @ 26.10 I would be happy, If it would have closed @25.70 i'd be happy, but 25.99... really?? Saying all that though the TA picture looks nasty with gold being down 20% from peak, so down she goes IMHO. BUT I believe this is healthy, the 2008 collapse setup the 2011 rally, this too IF it goes to where it I think it will will setup another rally taking us to the $75 mark.
 
BullON said:
The way I see it we have record short positions now which means if the shorts want to drive the price even lower they will need to add even more short positions going to an even higher record or the shorts will profit take/cover(which means they then become buyers) it could snap up quickly. whats the most probable?

1. More shorts setting new record driving the price down

2 Profit taking. Driving the price up.

3 sideways

4 other

B.
Click to expand...
Weird statement. For every short, there is a long. For silver (and all precious metals) the supply side, as a whole, is always net short. And the demand side (speculators) thus always net long.
See, it's not the amount longs / shorts that matters. A long on one side undoes a short on the same side. The price is only affected by the remainder, hence the 'net' total.
And that 'net' situation was wednesday 17924, end of day price US $27.89
That figure is lower than it was in 2008's price bottom.
A decade recordlow is 12000 (which happened on 26 juni 2012).
Without any net supply/demand total position remainder, the futures market ceases to be reflected in the price.
Alike nobody is trading there.
So the trend now is that they are running out of positions, for the same reason as that a stacker can't sell anymore after he sold all his silver. His influence on the price is GONE.
 
Pirocco said:
Weird statement. For every short, there is a long.
Click to expand...
+1. ^^This.
Record shorts = Record longs.
These longs will also need covering sooner or later.
 
We will see if 'record longs' will cover on Monday. Maybe, maybe not. Lets hope 'records longs' are strong hands.

China, India, Russia...show us the money and make this bounce with your physical purchase! Help your fellow stackers. :D
 
SS said:
We will see if 'record longs' will cover on Monday. Maybe, maybe not. Lets hope 'records longs' are strong hands.

China, India, Russia...show us the money and make this bounce with your physical purchase! Help your fellow stackers. :D
Click to expand...

Hope that is the case
 
Hi Pirocco,

Just wondering what you mean by the 'net' number? If as you said for every short there is a long shouldn't it just have a figure that represents the total contracts outstanding? Or is that what you mean by the 'remainder'?

Cheers
 
Hi SS,

Are you inferring that the 'record longs' are the Chinese, Russians, and Indians? If they 'cover' doesn't mean that they're selling which will drive down the price? ie. If you were short and you 'cover' you will be buying. On the other hand if you were long and you 'cover' it means you'll be selling.

Cheers
 
:D
Hey can someone fixed up the charts. I think we have an error there.
But wait til it reaches 20$ first then fix it up.
Thanks. Better get the fixup crews in for major overhaul. :D
 
monopolize said:
Hi SS,

Are you inferring that the 'record longs' are the Chinese, Russians, and Indians? If they 'cover' doesn't mean that they're selling which will drive down the price? ie. If you were short and you 'cover' you will be buying. On the other hand if you were long and you 'cover' it means you'll be selling.

Cheers
Click to expand...

I am referring to the Sovereign Chinese, Indian, and Russians. They do not cover as they are physical buyers and they most certainly do not sell their physical PM.

Now I am waiting for $21-20 silver...technically. It might be over as quickly as tonight...we shall see. The moment $26 was taken out, there is a lot of margin call (thus the selling) I am standing on the fence and watching.

My only concern is that $26 might now be a strong resistance. :(


Has any one here, heard of rumors that a bullion bank defaulted on a physical delivery?
 
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