Silver Charting and Silver TA Chat

hyphenated said:
One view is that it wasn't the big boys running a short attack last night - it was the wannabees.

The model I hope that we adhere to (derived from the AM thread on TF Metals) is an abrupt waterfall drop to the new bottom, then a rally until 11th when there will be a retest of the bottom. Then we move into Unicorns and Rainbows. Or not.

Certainly I'll be keeping a close eye on the action tonight, provided my caffeine supplies hold out, anyway.
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cracker thread that... and Palins trading thread are a must
8:30am (NY Time) US NF Employment Forecast 200K Previous 236K
8:30am (NY Time) US Unemployment Rate Forecast 7.7% Previous 7.7%
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As usual the first move is the fake with a caveat that if the first move pushes it through support then.... well
 
I regard that whole thread as inspirational, although the pudding has yet to be eaten.

Meanwhile, things are certainly happening in Gold (Silver: meh, not so much). I'm still awaiting a Silver bottom - it would actually be a relief to get a waterfall tonight.
 
gelxi said:
One thing to look out for also though is the COT figures - previously when it dipped to below NET Commercial Shorts of 20,000, it always marked a reversal - and we are very close to that now. I think for it to drop to below $26.15, the COT Net Commercial Shorts will move closer towards 0 or even go negative!

Why do you see $19.36 as the spike down target? That would be an interesting target as the cost of producing an oz. of silver as I remember is around the $17-$18 mark. That would bring it to just above it :)
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The net commercial shorts are 18,503 atm.
 
RMP said:
gelxi said:
One thing to look out for also though is the COT figures - previously when it dipped to below NET Commercial Shorts of 20,000, it always marked a reversal - and we are very close to that now. I think for it to drop to below $26.15, the COT Net Commercial Shorts will move closer towards 0 or even go negative!

Why do you see $19.36 as the spike down target? That would be an interesting target as the cost of producing an oz. of silver as I remember is around the $17-$18 mark. That would bring it to just above it :)
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The net commercial shorts are 18,503 atm.
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http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/hedge-funds-target-silver.html
Hedge Funds Target Silver
Silver+COT.png

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qIidqjM9k-8/UV9J2mToT-I/AAAAAAAAEEA/Ix9JXBDDK1Y/s1600/Silver+COT.png
TraderDan said:
Today's strength in silver was a by-product of gold, which pulled the grey metal higher - nothing else....
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Tis a tad omnious, looking for a spike up to 29ish (maybe more like 30.50ish) to work up a few longs then down she goes. I do believe phys market is very tight so these shinnanigans will actually cause the manipulators a perfect storm as miners will be slammed/ stop mining if the push it too far/loose control (17-18). Pb lead to the fall of the roman empire... could Ag lead to the fall of the American empire?
 
I hope it plays out like you're describing. Hopefully I can accumulate a little more powder before/if it plummets again.
 
hyphenated said:
I regard that whole thread as inspirational, although the pudding has yet to be eaten.

Meanwhile, things are certainly happening in Gold (Silver: meh, not so much). I'm still awaiting a Silver bottom - it would actually be a relief to get a waterfall tonight.
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Agree regarding the post. Ag always follows though be it variable timeframe...follow she always goes...Au is my 'canary in in mine' ;)
 
1021_da_future.png

well here is my future :P make of it what you will. Personally I have 75% trading capital for a down side move (hedge for phys) and 25% for up side in case I am wrong (which I will loose if it is a down side move). Personally this move to 26.65/1540 will have shaken out 0% of PM strong hands and therefore is entirely inadequate for bull market to resume. Bear in mind I was wrong... once :P
 
^Confronting stuff, but it breaks us out of our preconceptions, and I hear you on the necessary shakeout.

So, let's see. What purchased put option quantity at silver around 28 would be necessary to provide portfolio cover for this scenario...mutter, mutter.

Mind you - I'm up for purchasing at minus five bucks an ounce :D
 
Well Alessio Rastani rreckons the stock market is about to top out...may be good for PM's

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-ieC_RDsQk[/youtube]
 
It's not bitcoin stackers its silverstackers!!! :D
Well target for me is overhead resistance @ 1620 and 2930... shorting just under going long just over. Congrats you bitcoin types (broJonhF must be swimming in it) our turn next :)
 
So, thatguy

Here we are at 28 Silver - pummet or upward?

I cashed in the only two Apr13 calls showing a profit (actually quite a nice profit), but it would be nice if we saw enough 'up' to get the other two off the pag... :D
 
hyphenated said:
So, thatguy

Here we are at 28 Silver - pummet or upward?

I cashed in the only two Apr13 calls showing a profit (actually quite a nice profit), but it would be nice if we saw enough 'up' to get the other two off the pag... :D
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Still up, I think will will see a short term high this Friday (either 2930-3030/1620) . After that, down next week to either a higher low or plummet with my trading capital allocated 30/70 resolving by the start of may.

I have sneaking suspicion we may have a dip n rip before Fridays intermediate high.

Caveat... this information is for entertainment purposes only, should be used exclusivly to mock a deride the author and is not to be taken as trading advice :D
 
...and it will be used for entertainment purposes :D

My sleeping patterns are getting a tad disrupted - up till midnight than a 4am cross-check... very entertaining...
 
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSJSxHqM_gA[/youtube]
the rejection of the 28 resistance line was not good and the ability to manipulate news and thus gold price even worse for us bulls. Am even more convinced of a plumet, bearing in mind things are tight in the phys domain... TPTB do not want to see a total default so they are balancing things mighty fine ATM. So I think the plumet will have a FUBM FWIW. still allocating a little $$ for a 26.15 long JIC
 
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