Silver Charting and Silver TA Chat

thatguy said:
thatguy said:
getting in long here... eeeek !
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mmm loosing money is NOT fun... sigh, next long @ 26.50 :|
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The lesson here is stay 100% in Physical then you dont lose a cent on these paper dips. Until I sell I lose nothing. Equally when prices go up I dont make anyting in cash until I sell.
As long as you are not leveraged or in debt you can wait them out.
 
1021_target.jpg

you've seen this chart before ppl. Even if it only bounces off $26.50 there is money to be made
 
AQ said:
thatguy said:
http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1021_do_what_ya_gotta.png
do what ya gotta
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Hmmm meaning to say its starting to look bullish?
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nope looks horrendous, but anyone that does not have a go here/add a little to their stack is missing a major fork in the road type opportunity. Personally I am adding long positions gradually down to 26.10 (stops @ 25.90) and have enough in reserve to open short positions @25.85.... FOR A RUN TO HELL AND BACK :lol:
 
Boy o Boy....
Ok lessons learned...

When ever a major CRAP happens which should be bullish for PM....Tread carefully after the initial blip...

This recent one is Cyprus with the legalization of theft from bank deposit. Remember what happens when QE~ was announced or when the swiss franc was pegged to the euro?

I should have switched and begin a shorting strategy. All the signs were there. Noticed that the highs are getting lower AND always finish at a previous support? (marked in black circle)

5568_03_04_13_silver.png


Lets speculate...maybe NFP will be crap this Friday. Lets see what ADP will bring out tonight. I am standing aside for now. Hopefully we get another Blip down to my Buy order at 26.20; stop at 25.80
 
thatguy: Looks like you are rocking this house down! Nice charts you have shared above. I share the same sentiments as you. The next couple of weeks will be interesting to see whether bears breach the important flag support or bulls manage to hold off the carnage. Just to supplement your 'Run to hell and back!' comment. IF the $26.15 support line is indeed breached, my charts tell me two strong levels of support are at $23.50 (multi-year log chart trendline support), and $21.50 (multi-year previous high and 61.8% fib retracement). I think the probability of silver price dropping beyond the lower of these two is minimal.
 
gelxi said:
thatguy: Looks like you are rocking this house down! Nice charts you have shared above. I share the same sentiments as you. The next couple of weeks will be interesting to see whether bears breach the important flag support or bulls manage to hold off the carnage. Just to supplement your 'Run to hell and back!' comment. IF the $26.15 support line is indeed breached, my charts tell me two strong levels of support are at $23.50 (multi-year log chart trendline support), and $21.50 (multi-year previous high and 61.8% fib retracement). I think the probability of silver price dropping beyond the lower of these two is minimal.
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Nice to see you again gelxi :D I always appreciated your posts. I have my eye on $19.36 as an eventual spike down target.
 
One thing to look out for also though is the COT figures - previously when it dipped to below NET Commercial Shorts of 20,000, it always marked a reversal - and we are very close to that now. I think for it to drop to below $26.15, the COT Net Commercial Shorts will move closer towards 0 or even go negative!

Why do you see $19.36 as the spike down target? That would be an interesting target as the cost of producing an oz. of silver as I remember is around the $17-$18 mark. That would bring it to just above it :)
 
gelxi said:
One thing to look out for also though is the COT figures - previously when it dipped to below NET Commercial Shorts of 20,000, it always marked a reversal - and we are very close to that now. I think for it to drop to below $26.15, the COT Net Commercial Shorts will move closer towards 0 or even go negative!

Why do you see $19.36 as the spike down target? That would be an interesting target as the cost of producing an oz. of silver as I remember is around the $17-$18 mark. That would bring it to just above it :)
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Thanx for the info on the COT.
1021_testing_the_breakout.jpg

that Red section is what worries me as the break out has never been retested.
 
Trading volume is always a good indicator of momentum. See circled volume for the past two weeks below. The bears have gathered in full force for this fight vs. the bulls to breach the $26.15 support line. Can the bulls withstand this onslaught? Given the massive trading volume, whoever's the winner will have a big say in the next major direction of silver price.

silver2013apr5.png
 
Miners having a green day after a prolonged flogging and no attack on PMs in the Asian hours... is this a bottom????????????
 
thatguy said:
Miners having a green day after a prolonged flogging and no attack on PMs in the Asian hours... is this a bottom????????????
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Yea, it's been moving sideways/neutral all day. Such a boring day... Let's see what Big Bro might have to say later this evening.
 
One view is that it wasn't the big boys running a short attack last night - it was the wannabees.

The model I hope that we adhere to (derived from the AM thread on TF Metals) is an abrupt waterfall drop to the new bottom, then a rally until 11th when there will be a retest of the bottom. Then we move into Unicorns and Rainbows. Or not.

Certainly I'll be keeping a close eye on the action tonight, provided my caffeine supplies hold out, anyway.
 
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