Silver Charting and Silver TA Chat
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Matthew 26:14
New Member
The US jobs report was stronger than expected (ie more jobs created than the "market" forecast"). As a result, there is an expectation that further QE is now less likely, hence a sell-off in precious metals as the US dollar gains ground.
dragafem said:the question is,is it gonna go any lower? please, those guys whos watching them charts(and understand them) give us some indication
You get enough traders following charts and then the charts themselves dictate the market (as a measure and indicator of trader behaviour and psychology) rather than the underlying fundamentals.
To explain my point, traders trade goods in order to make a long term profit - like everyone else in the world. The difference though with others that hold say commodities for a lengthy period of time as opposed to traders, is that the traders are constantly rotating stock, buying/selling, buying/selling etc. To them the commodity is just that, a tradeable item and the chart is an historical snapshot of the last price they got for their item.
Now, economics is not science (as much as some economists wish it would be, hence the expression: "Physics Envy"), it is a unique social expression. You cannot measure economics in the same way you measure light, or density, neither can you accurately observe an economic transaction without having some impact on the behaviour of the participants in that situation. For example if you were to conduct a "study" of the spending or saving habits of 11 year old children to determine whether they spent their pocket money wisely, merely having an observer present can fundamentally change the behaviour of the participants. In much the same way a placebo can alter the mind set or health of a patient.
Charting is an observation, as such, its mere presence alone can have a profound impact on the market without any fundamental economic or "scientific" reason. Silver is worse for this than gold, hence it's volatility, and because it can be argued its fundamentals are not as sound as gold.
If enough traders believe as wrcmad does, "This one was in the making for a few days", then that observation alone dragafem is enough to influence the outcome of the market. And herein lies the great irony of charting, it cannot predict the future price movement, but it most certainly can influence it.
mmm....shiney! said:dragafem said:the question is,is it gonna go any lower? please, those guys whos watching them charts(and understand them) give us some indication
You get enough traders following charts and then the charts themselves dictate the market (as a measure and indicator of trader behaviour and psychology)
And herein lies the great irony of charting, it cannot predict the future price movement, but it most certainly can influence it.
Trend Influence of the Mass.
Wouldn't we all love to know.dragafem said:the question is,is it gonna go any lower? please, those guys whos watching them charts(and understand them) give us some indication
I don't use charts as a direction predicting tool, I use them to trade breakouts, which serve me more profitably.mmm....shiney! said:
I don't really buy into the ol' self-fulfilling prophecy argument, as I don't believe it to be true.
For a good example of a support/resistance line drawn up by stackers (not chartists) just read the posts here about buying over/under $30. It is this same behaviour that is used to trade the paper markets. there is a scientific reason as to why support/resistance lines form, and if you'd like I could explain one day.
Price in any market is the collective agreement of all market participants (and non-participants).
Fundamental analysis approaches the price decision-making process by attempting to determine intrinsic value using available information, extrapolated by interpretation and translation which often contains a phsycological bias (eg. to da' moon). The problem with fundamental analysis is that it assumes information is disseminated perfectly and acted on rationally. Most stackers will tell you this does not happen in real markets (eg cartel), but ironically, their investment strategy is based on these two contradictory observations.
Technical analysis approaches the price decision-making process by examining the market for the instrument itself using data such as price, volume, open interest etc. It is not concerned with the value of whatever underlies the financial instrument, but with how the forces of supply and demand are impacting upon it's price.
In short: Fundamental analysis tells us what should happen to prices, technical analysis tells us what is happening to prices.
silvertorrent
New Member
Only a short term thing; post US Election the true (non massaged) numbers will come out (follow the trail via ZeroHedge.com for further details)
wrcmad said:
You don't?
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/753_nasdaq.png]
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/753_japanlandprices.jpg]
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/753_650px-real_melbourne_house_prices_1965_-_2010b.jpg]
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/753_280px-tulip_price_index1.png]
Matthew 26:14
New Member
January 1 is a big date for US Govt going into default etc so turbulence in the run-up should help metals.
wrcmad said:
And what drives "price, volume, open interest" wrcmad?
Technical analysis is an attempt to predict the future.
mmm....shiney! said:
Price is driven by demand/supply.
Volume is driven by commitment behind a price movement.
Open interest is driven by momentum, demand/supply, and volume
For some, maybe.mmm....shiney! said:Technical analysis is an attempt to predict the future.
But for me, it is a play on probabilities, the outcome of which has a positive expectancy.
Ghost Story
Active Member
price is driven by people hitting computer keys trying to make some money, has nothing to do with silver, silver is just another chart, these people have no interest in stacking silver.
its just a means to an end.
its just a means to an end.
uuuuuuuumm said:
That's true to some extent.
Some would have an interest though. wrcmad probably plays with a foot in each park, as does whathisname with his "One long continuous thread"(does he still post?) They trade PM's and they have a core stock and a hedge. Makes sense really, if you have the technical knowledge, the time and the "politico-economic" tendency that draws one naturally to PM's, why not combine those skills and traits? Same with members that dabble in gold mining shares.
Ghost Story
Active Member
the guys playing with big bucks that make big $ on a 1 point move care not about silver, its a good market for the big boys to gamble in because it moves and fast.
uuuuuuuumm said:
What does not caring about silver mean? Does anyone here really care about silver or is it just a means to an end? I've heard numerous people talking about ultimately swapping silver for property.
Would the majority of people care about silver if it was steadily dropping in value instead of increasing?