Silver Charting and Silver TA Chat
- Thread starter Azure
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wrcmad, thatguy good morning! 
What is your opinion on the situation with the big silver triangle/pennant on the USD/Silver?
Although it has broken out of the ascending reversal triangle, I am only convinced that it has broken the downtrend in the near term. I don't see a reversal in the longer time frame unless $30.50 ~ $30.60 is taken out with good volume within this month. That is when the big silver triangle/pennant is broken out to the upside.
What do you guys think?
What is your opinion on the situation with the big silver triangle/pennant on the USD/Silver?
Although it has broken out of the ascending reversal triangle, I am only convinced that it has broken the downtrend in the near term. I don't see a reversal in the longer time frame unless $30.50 ~ $30.60 is taken out with good volume within this month. That is when the big silver triangle/pennant is broken out to the upside.
What do you guys think?
gelxi said:
I agree.
I am treating this current break upwards as a short-term move up within a longer-term down-trend.
IMO, this move doesn't yet constitue a breakout of the larger bullish pennant.
The last false break (circled red) was around 165 cents. Using this as the measure of market noise, price needs to break through at around the current 200 day EMA level before I consider a longer-term trend reversal in the making.
EMA 200 is to be feared I am aiming to close my shorts @ around $29.70, but depending on how this pans out could take profit sooner. I already closed one long to cover the shorts of the other two... so might push my luck, if it gets to $29.80 will be going short, with stops @ $30.10. I agree with the wrcmad, this is to be a little up in a sea of down.
thatguy said:
Couldn't agree more with that analysis by both you and wrcmad. At the 200 MA (if it gets there) I'm shorting too. I just hope it gets battered before the snakes are released. I had a feeling this was going to happen. Why can't it just blo*dy stay at $26 and change for a few more weeks.
wrcmad said:thatguy said:Well that was predictable
Yep, in the black by 6 oz's per contract on previously discussed longs this morning.
Raising stop and locking in 3 oz per contract - the rest is just cream.
Well, there was a fair bit of cream last night. CFD's topped out this morning at 29.51, just 34c shy of the 200 day EMA.
I thought I would post the results of this trade below. The chart is in 30min bars to show detail of my stops:
Initial entry long at 2841. Margin per contract USD$142.62.
The stop levels (shown in red) indicate where I raised my stops to overnight at key lows as the trade progressed.
The entry level 2 (blue) was where I doubled up on breaking new highs - entry long at 2914. This new position cost nothing as equity on the current winning trade was used for margin requirements.
Result:
All positions stopped out this morning at 2923.
Profit per contract: USD$455.00
Profit as percentage out-lay (margin) = 319%.
just closed 2 long positions and have 2 left in play... will see how it interacts with $30, has more longs to pile on post $30, but expecting a pull back nowgelxi said:Looks like we are already challenging EMA 200
The week of reckoning is here. Good luck with your shorts guys.
thatguy said:just closed 2 long positions and have 2 left in play... will see how it interacts with $30, has more longs to pile on post $30, but expecting a pull back nowgelxi said:Looks like we are already challenging EMA 200
The week of reckoning is here. Good luck with your shorts guys.
How much of a pullback are you anticipating?
What a rally today by silver and gold! I think the reason the rally stopped is because we have hit a key resistance level with gold's own pennant. Let's see how both silver and gold move from here.
Meanwhile, silver has its own larger pennant resistance AND the 200-EMA to negotiate:
Meanwhile, silver has its own larger pennant resistance AND the 200-EMA to negotiate:
The hype is driven by 2013 PM upcoming releases.
After that, it will ........
After that, it will ........
I am going to wait until the end of the week and see whether it stays above the 200 EMA and also sees whether it will continue to generate significant volume. If I don't see either, I will be not be wading it. However, judging from its price momentum alone these past 3 days, there is a strong possibility that the big down trend is ending...
The last 24 hours has been pretty interesting. Was surprised at the Asian market moves.
WOuld be looking for a retrace back to 29.50 and the 200 day EMA, safe entry there....if it falls through...we will just be looking at more of the the last few months for the next little while.
The fact that the Asian markets have on the whole supported the COMEX moves is positive.
ALso note the XGD. I put a 'heads up' post up of it a month or so back in the market forum. Some good opportunities in the miners starting to emerge.
WOuld be looking for a retrace back to 29.50 and the 200 day EMA, safe entry there....if it falls through...we will just be looking at more of the the last few months for the next little while.
The fact that the Asian markets have on the whole supported the COMEX moves is positive.
ALso note the XGD. I put a 'heads up' post up of it a month or so back in the market forum. Some good opportunities in the miners starting to emerge.