silly question from a newbie

craig12 said:
what caused silver to rise to $46
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long story short, stupidity.

...and what has caused it to fall back down to $19
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long story short, reality. Parabolic rises never end well for bulls.

There's no love for metals at the moment, golds safe haven status has taken a pounding and until investors come running back to it Silver is going to do nothing.
USD FTW apparently.
 
Argentum said:
lol at above 2; optimist thinks it will get better and Cheepo think it will get cheaper; following the meanings of their name
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Haha I'm always the optimist, if you have a negative outlook on things or always play it safe, You'll never amount to much.

80% of all self made millionaires have at some point been declared bankrupt, that's because the optimistic with the attitude of "he who dares wins"
 
the optimist said:
Argentum said:
lol at above 2; optimist thinks it will get better and Cheepo think it will get cheaper; following the meanings of their name
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Haha I'm always the optimist, if you have a negative outlook on things or always play it safe, You'll never amount to much.

80% of all self made millionaires have at some point been declared bankrupt, that's because the optimistic with the attitude of "he who dares wins"
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Absolutely, and I wish I had tried some of the business ideas I had. But advising someone to put all his money into a non-income generating asset, when the price is 3 times the historic average is not very wise. I just don't want the over-optimistics to give bad ideas to people who haven't really looked very hard at the historic price of silver.
 
Cheepo said:
I just don't want the over-optimistics to give bad ideas to people who haven't really looked very hard at the historic price of silver.
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If you can show me next years chart by looking at last years chart you should be a very wealthy man
 
the optimist said:
Cheepo said:
I just don't want the over-optimistics to give bad ideas to people who haven't really looked very hard at the historic price of silver.
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If you can show me next years chart by looking at last years chart you should be a very wealthy man
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The odds of the price trend continuing what it did over the last 3 years is higher than the odds of the price trend going in exactly the opposite way. And this will continue until the price will be $6/oz. Wanna bet?
 
Cheepo said:
Wanna bet?
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I love bet, that's why as it stands I've tied up over 300,000 in silver & gold

I'd have no problem putting my money where my mouth is either, if you wish to put it down in a legally binding contract ?
 
Interesting to hear your views, up/down each with its own logic.
As for looking to the past, its the only record we have of how silver behaves and a valuable info resource.
Im not sure if I would let it predict the future for me, it certainly will influence me.
I believe the world is entering into a phase unlike anything we have seen in the past, the amount of debt, increase of money supply, record price's, increased population, the way in which we are all tied together.
I think given all these factors and many more you maybe aware of, some small event could trigger panic or shock and change everything.
Much like Mohamed Bouazizi's self-immolation in Tunisia set in motion the chain of events that led to Arab spring.
I plan to increase my holding in silver to a percentage of my net worth, not all in. buying in small lots to avoid making mistakes due to my lack of knowledge (been there before), with a long term view.
 
SweetBread said:
I think given all these factors and many more you maybe aware of, some small event could trigger panic or shock and change everything.
.
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I agree with with, its happening all over. Recent event the sandy hook shooting. Ammo and gun prices have finally mellowed back out here from the 300% increase but I still can not find .22 ammo to save my life. Doesn't take much( not saying Sandy Hook wasn't a big deal) for people to go into a panic and change everything. All that needs to happen is something that directs them towards silver and gold.
 
Financial crisis of 2007 - 2008

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007–08

Many people panicked, and sought refuge in gold and silver, causing prices to boom

Then the economy recovered somewhat and the fear died down. Also, reduced manufacturing output from China lead to less demand for PMs.

That's my take on it, anyway.

If the Ukraine crisis goes off the deep end and WW3 starts we can all buy our own castle :D
 
Would it be fair to say that sentiment by most investors seems to be mixed to low on silver and gold? If so, and the spot price hasn't dropped below $18 thus far in this 18 month bear run, is it fair to say that perhaps we are seeing a bottom range for silver at just around $19?

And wouldn't $6/oz silver be as unrealistic a suggestion as 1 penny/oz silver?

.
 
the optimist said:
Cheepo said:
Wanna bet?
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I love bet, that's why as it stands I've tied up over 300,000 in silver & gold

I'd have no problem putting my money where my mouth is either, if you wish to put it down in a legally binding contract ?
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I wouldn't bet money with a man able to put aside 300,000 in silver & gold :D

On the other hand, why not bet all your assets against all my liabilities? How do we put it down in a legally binding contract?
 
mmissinglink said:
Would it be fair to say that sentiment by most investors seems to be mixed to low on silver and gold? If so, and the spot price hasn't dropped below $18 thus far in this 18 month bear run, is it fair to say that perhaps we are seeing a bottom range for silver at just around $19?

And wouldn't $6/oz silver be as unrealistic a suggestion as 1 penny/oz silver?

.
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No. That wouldn't be fair to say. The recovery is just starting. Wait until QE is ended and interest rates are raised. That 1) will be the signal that the economy is in much better shape, 2) will make it more profitable to buy bonds, in particular government bonds, and many people will switch from silver to bonds, and 3) many people will have to pay more for their mortgage interest rates (or other money they borrowed), and will sell silver to pay off their mortgage (or other loans).

I said it and I repeat it. $15/oz by Christmas. $10 by the end of next year.
 
craig12 said:
well this may be the silliest question ever asked , but I am very new to pm,s

what caused silver to rise to $46 , and what has caused it to fall back down to $19
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I am relatively new to this forum also, so am feeling I can add another view as well.
As with many other issues, silver and its' value is one of personal perception for most. If you bought in 2010 at the all time high, then today you might be a little more hungry. However the prices are reasonably well priced for some, for today, with the cost of production as one of many variables etc.

Historically, well before the federal reserve, and where high frequency trading was not even comprehended, it has been reported that a day of ones' labour was equal to an oz of silver.
Obviously not in this day and age, for me anyway.
Fiat currencies have steadily lost their buying power through inflation and availability, but silver over the past century, per oz, still can purchase 5 lires of fuel.

No one can reasonably predict the exact time and price, but speculation is very healthy, which is the backbone of this forum, plus other issues of course. Anyone that does make a concrete prediction of time and price is very brave I reckon.

Also, the price may very well be being doctored at this time, and what goes on behind closed doors and the secrets of the fixers I will never really know. The chinese may have an arrangement with the americans to keep the prices where they feel it allows them to make their own decisions. dunno ! The Chinese own JP Morgan at the moment, paid for their building and that silver futures business in Manhatten for a bargain price.

So why do people stack, well for me it's a time interest activity, as opposed to watching mythbusters too much or something. Plus it's kind of fun to have an oz of metal clinking around in your pocket. This forum is more than educational and also very stimulating to learn from.

I see people smoke away oz's of silver on a daily basis, and if that is what makes them happy, well then great.
But owning physical silver, for what ever reason is definitely a smart thing to do, and if you can afford the expense, stack as much as reasonably possible for your own headspace. But if your not happy with the gamble, then be carefull.

Nothing stays the same, and neither will the price. Cashing in on the stash in the future will be interesting to say the least.
have a good one :)
 
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