Shake and bake under way.

T

tolly_67

Well-Known Member
Get ready for another set up. Remember, if you are driving down a very steep hill and you hit a speed bump, your car will rise....for a short time anyway.
 
tumblr_lxkfdvzhjO1r6mobjo1_500.jpg
 
Coincidentally, "shake and bake" is also vernacular for a crude single-vessel method for synthesizing producing amphetamines*.

Its goddamn bucket chemistry, not worthy of the dignity implied in the word 'synthesis'.

article-2365971-1AD748DB000005DC-789_306x304.jpg
 
Uh oh
Randgold Resources Ltd., the best-performing gold mining stock in the past decade, is getting ready for another plunge in prices.
"We are already starting to see what we would need to restructure should the gold price continue to go down," Chief Executive Officer Mark Walburger said in an interview at Bloomberg's office in London on Thursday.

"The industry would be fried at $800. It's a very real possibility."
The company would write down the value of assets if gold fell below $1,000 an ounce, and cut production with prices below $800. It's making plans to remain cash-flow positive in that scenario, Bristow said. The metal dropped 8.4 percent this year to $1,085.21 an ounce in London.
Click to expand...
Bberg

Gold miner Kingsgate Consolidated says the gold price could sink as low as $US1000 per ounce before rebounding on Chinese and Indian demand.

Kingsgate's new chief executive Greg Foulis said expectations of a US interest rate rise this year and a higher US dollar had been weighing on the gold price for two years, but most of the weakness had already been factored in by markets.
Click to expand...
 
House said:
Uh oh
"The industry would be fried at $800. It's a very real possibility."
Click to expand...
Bberg

Gold miner Kingsgate Consolidated says the gold price could sink as low as $US1000 per ounce before rebounding on Chinese and Indian demand.

Kingsgate's new chief executive Greg Foulis said expectations of a US interest rate rise this year and a higher US dollar had been weighing on the gold price for two years, but most of the weakness had already been factored in by markets.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
I wish the #*^*$ AUD would temporarily recover to make that price drop worthwhile.
 
House said:
says the gold price could sink as low as $US1000 per ounce before rebounding on Chinese and Indian demand.
Click to expand...

Love calling bottoms. Especially hearing things like this.
Reality is that the price could sink "as low as" $0.
 
It's all normal market behavior....there will never be a time when the market never falls after a spike and never a time when the market never rises after a fall.

Volatility and modulation is part of the game.

The trick is to be able to set reasonable, advantageous goals for yourself and make plays on those goals when the time is right and if they maintain their reasonableness.

In plain English....know when to buy and when not to.


.
 
mmissinglink said:
It's all normal market behavior....there will never be a time when the market never falls after a spike and never a time when the market never rises after a fall.

Volatility and modulation is part of the game.

The trick is to be able to set reasonable, advantageous goals for yourself and make plays on those goals when the time is right and if they maintain their reasonableness.

In plain English....know when to buy and when not to.


.
Click to expand...

Never say never.
The USD has "never" failed..............
 
The cake is now in the oven after a lengthy preparation time.
If you look through the glass door you will see it rising.
Don't forget that this cake will be pulled out way too early and it will collapse.
At the moment it is only hot air lifting it. The recipe is wrong but it doesn't matter. It's rising.
 
The illusion that gold is a safehaven from market turmoil (price was stable as market fell) is the icing being applied to this cake. All it needs is a few candles, light them up and watch as they gather round for a slice....
then ....
kaboom.....
That's not icing...that's mud on your face.
 
Gold price futures are going to fall very low indeed, so far that gold futures contracts will flood the market and be almost worthless. The tiny subset of the gold futures market being the physical gold market will be affected as well. No physical will be available at the futures price, physical will be un-priceable. 'Gold' will be both worthless and priceless, choose wisely.

"The average daily volume of gold and silver cleared at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) in November 2008 was 18.3 million ounces (worth $13.9 billion) and 107.6 million ounces (worth $1.1 billion) respectively. This means that an amount equal to the annual gold mine production was cleared at the LBMA every 4.4 days"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_bullion_market#Market_size
 
Gold will be basically fine, silver is going to eat a pile of sand.

If Australian miners can't make money at $1400+ then they shouldn't be in business. There's no reason that they can't lock in forward contracts now for nearly $1600 aud for a long time into the future.

Deciding whether to buy some SLR is tricky though, so cheap.
 
bubbleboy said:
Gold price futures are going to fall very low indeed, so far that gold futures contracts will flood the market and be almost worthless. The tiny subset of the gold futures market being the physical gold market will be affected as well. No physical will be available at the futures price, physical will be un-priceable. 'Gold' will be both worthless and priceless, choose wisely.

"The average daily volume of gold and silver cleared at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) in November 2008 was 18.3 million ounces (worth $13.9 billion) and 107.6 million ounces (worth $1.1 billion) respectively. This means that an amount equal to the annual gold mine production was cleared at the LBMA every 4.4 days"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_bullion_market#Market_size
Click to expand...

I would think that if gold gets to $900 then there will no shortage of physical holders who will have convinced themselves that we are on our way to $600 gold and will exit, regardless of the paper position. It is no different than real estate prices along the coast. The so called "paper" price is, for example, an average of half to three quarters of a million dollars per house. Now that would be impossible if everyone sold their house at the same time. This same "paper" average could drop to a quarter of a million dollars and this would stop a lot of people from selling but certainly not all.
As with silver, once it finally returns to its "blow off" price, not all silver will be able to be sold at that price.
The "paper" market is what gives silver liquidity. Very short term manipulations are possible only, never the market.
 
phrenzy said:
Deciding whether to buy some SLR is tricky though, so cheap.
Click to expand...

SLR is my pick for a huge gain once the recovery happens (whenever that happens, I have no idea, nor do I care, I just know it will eventually). I bought a lot of SLR sub $0.14, which of means it will drop further :D
I suspect there isn't a better speculative pick if you want to be in gold stocks.
 
tolly_67 said:
I would think that if gold gets to $900 then there will no shortage of physical holders who will have convinced themselves that we are on our way to $600 gold and will exit, regardless of the paper position. It is no different than real estate prices along the coast. The so called "paper" price is, for example, an average of half to three quarters of a million dollars per house. Now that would be impossible if everyone sold their house at the same time. This same "paper" average could drop to a quarter of a million dollars and this would stop a lot of people from selling but certainly not all.
As with silver, once it finally returns to its "blow off" price, not all silver will be able to be sold at that price.
The "paper" market is what gives silver liquidity. Very short term manipulations are possible only, never the market.
Click to expand...

I think I understand. Are you seeing a potential for a 20% - 30% drop in the gold price before stabilizing and going back up again?
I see a 20% drop and a delay in sourcing supply for large orders above hundreds of kilograms, then another serious drop below $700 and those large orders being closed out for cash followed quickly by a drop to below $300 and even just buying a Kilo will be difficult if not impossible, scooping up the last remnants of scrap jewellery will be the only available supply. Gold will be seen as worthless when held as a paper futures contract and priceless as a physical item until a new market can be opened that established trades in physical only at thousands of dollars an ounce. However I do see physical silver will stay linked to futures contracts and both will go lower together forever.
 
You are joining too many dots.
In 2004 I was buying silver under spot regularly. This was not uncommon. When something is out of favour then that is how it is.
so it will be with gold should those prices eventuate.
This business about gold being unavailable is not right. Such declines would convince many that price is going to zero and they will bail.
Don't get caught up in the 'paper' and 'physical' hype.
Gold will turn when it is ready. When it reaches its blow off point, there will still be 'paper' trading.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top