Sell Gold, It Is Still Expensive
- Thread starter mmissinglink
- Start date
Sargeant Argent
New Member
Golds overpriced because its above its historical average? Isnt everything due to inflation. Gold is down to the S&P and that makes it over valued? What a dumb ass how about using gold to food ratios or looking at actual cost of production. Most mines are barwly turning a profit with the prices now and if they drop finding physical refined gold will take a small miracle. I have a strong feeling gold and silvers drop are more likely an indicator of a massive stock market drop. Really the only thing propping the market is a delicate balance of fake mone and bullshit. And were seeing all time highs in the dow nasdaq and s&p that seems like something thats overpriced as opposed to gold which is at less than 70% its all time high.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
I always get a haha thought when I read sell recommendations after big sales.
Alot sold, and now need others to sell too, as to bring the lower prices to buy back in.
The Comex gold position sits now on the same low as at the 2008 bottom price. Ishares Gold Trust shareholders dumped 1/3 of their entire stock. Abit late to recommend selling gold. Maybe Sean Bellamy McNulty doesn't know that it's 2013?
Alot sold, and now need others to sell too, as to bring the lower prices to buy back in.
The Comex gold position sits now on the same low as at the 2008 bottom price. Ishares Gold Trust shareholders dumped 1/3 of their entire stock. Abit late to recommend selling gold. Maybe Sean Bellamy McNulty doesn't know that it's 2013?
i'll be buying gold when it goes closer to $1100... its just going sideways atm, and the upside doesn't look very bright for the short-term at least
it's just about patience... maybe it might not get there... but i definitely won't start buying more unless i can see a clear reversal pattern (either way) happening on the charts
it's just about patience... maybe it might not get there... but i definitely won't start buying more unless i can see a clear reversal pattern (either way) happening on the charts
Sargeant Argent
New Member
Articles like the above seem like more reason to buy rather than sell.
Sargeant Argent said:
Agreed -these articles usually precede a good rally.
mmissinglink
Active Member
Are guys like this bating on purpose those who just don't know enough? Is their intent to try to get gold / silver prices further down? For what reason? So that they can themselves buy even lower?
mike titanic
New Member
I am happily buying ag and au at the current prices.If they drop I will buy more until it rises substancially.Just my 2 cents.
mike titanic said:
well done.
so simple, yet so important.
One day you gonna be one rich hombre, if you're not already!
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
It could be said that anything of which price increased faster than other prices, due to people that buy & stock it to sell it later, is overpriced. In the end, that's just what stocking is. It causes a temporary demand and thus temporary price increase followed by a sale and thus price decrease.
Pirocco said:
Assuming that what you are pricing it against remains constant. As we all know the fiat currency (US$) has lost 97% of its value since 1913 and 35% since 2008 so under that scenario what you say is bogus. Your measuring stick ($) is broken.
afternoon all,
well, I have to take that article with a grain of salt.
There is so much philosophical clap trap through it and so much bs assumption, I cannot take a thing from it. He may have something - and I would probably like to discuss things with him - but really????????/
Examples
"It is not 2008.
Gold's price is not driven by industrial demand." ----------- good points - but from here on in - downhill all the way imo
"With regards to fact number 1, Doug Short's Big Four Indicators chart does an excellent job visually representing the improvements in the economy since 2008."
Arrh ------------ ok if it were true --------- but is the American economy in a better state than 2008? -- has it been getting better? Really?
Ok, if you want to argue improvements from 2008 ------------------ why show us graphs from 2009? Hello! a little cherry picking graphing going on here at a guess.
To balance the figures --------------- can we see a graphical represent of USA debt and also USA interest owing on that rising debt please?
Can we see a graph on the interest on that debt with some what if's on different interest rate rises ---------- you know - those rises that happen when your economy picks up - like you are suggesting it is.
Those same interest rate rises that will smash the USA into oblivion if they go up even just a few points.
Next.
"If humans were to get over their fascination with gold, the technological use is all that would be left to drive demand, of which there is ample supply for."
Hello Houston, we have a problem --------------- why in the name of God would you write crap like that in an article? Are humans going to get over their 'fascination' with gold - is that going to happen in our lifetimes?
Is it possible to throw out Millennia ---------------- yes, it is a big word MILLENNIA ------------ thousands of years of culture ------------ are they going to change that?
What a waste of ink.
It is like saying if humans got over their yearning for food -- there would be no need for food shortages!!!!!!! What a wank.
Next
" Even adamant gold bugs would agree that the only reason they hold gold is to one day exchange it for food, clothing and shelter. Ideally more food, clothing and shelter in the future than what they could get with gold today."
Got that one mostly correct - except that most 'adamant' gold bugs know that gold is a store of value - a preserver of purchasing power - no more no less -- to exchange for more of the same at some time in future is to be a speculator or an investor or a gambler ---------------- gold is not for that - gold is to preserve purchasing power.
Next ------------ this is a loo loo
"Taking the long term view first, I've compiled the data on the S&P500 to gold ratio dating from December 29th, 1978 to May 17th, 2013. The S&P500 is made up of companies that provide food, clothing and shelter acting as a useful proxy,"
That is the biggest load of crap I have read in a while.
A 6 year old kid knows that no stock price or no stock index price has any relevance at all to a few things ------- some of which are ------- the price of the good or service that that company is or index measures and has absolutely no bearing on the health of the said companies or markets.
Useful proxy, my bum ------------- dunny paper is more useful.
Next
"First, the recent run-up in gold prices puts to shame the run up in the 1980s, both in terms of nominal increase and duration of the run-up.
Second, during Alan Greenspan's tenure from 1987 to 2006, he essentially adopted a gold standard, although not explicitly. If he had of kept with it by raising interest rates faster in 2004, or not kept interest rates so low for so long from 2002 to 2004, gold may not have broken out of its range and the size of the housing market collapse wouldn't have been as catastrophic."
Readers might want to spend a nanosecond or two thinking through this lot -------- from an author who suggests selling gold because it is still expensive??
He says if Greenspan had kept with it by raising interest rates then gold may have not broken out of its range........................... fine.
So, if we raise interest rates this time, then we can contain gold? Yep, that is I guess what he is saying ----------------
But, and a big but here ------------------- the US CANNOT raise interest rates much without cutting their throat from ear to ear ----------- RAISE AND DIE - or keep them low - so if low is the go ------------------------ then our author should be arguing???????????????????? think about it.
Next
"Finally, and most importantly, gold in terms of what it can be exchanged for is still well above its long term average. The S&P500/Gold Ratio's historical average is 1.62, and it is currently at 1.22 even after the 17% increase in the S&P500 this year. Of course, this can be corrected in two ways, with either the S&P500 rallying or gold falling, both of which do not support a long gold investment thesis."
Well, if you want to get all historic about it ---- we have far more long term measures of gold and indeed silver way way before the S&P was even thought of let alone invented.
Lets just look at one of them --------------- A Gold Sovereign ------------ for centuries 1 little gold sovereign has been able for most of its life to provide basic needs of a family of 4 for 1 week.
Simple, elegant and pretty bullet proof.
So ---------- today, right now 1 Gold sovereign is worth somewhere between $340 and $375 (Aussie) --- depending on whether or not you are buying or selliing.
Work it out yourself - or better still ask the woman in the house (assuming she shops) ------------
Could an average family of 4 basically exist on $375 per week?
Well, could they?
Does it seem overpriced now?
Lets get real here folks ------------ that is one of the oldest measurements around ---------- stuff the S&P -- the S&P is an engineered index bolstered by bullshit monetary policy that has basically distorted the entire planet.
The basic needs of a family of 4 haven't changed one zot in centuries ----------- shelter, food, clothing, warmth etc. etc.
It is firmly my opinion - that the average family trying to live on $375 for one week today would in fact be on the bones of their arse.
This article makes very little sense to me at all.
Have a great day all
Gazza
well, I have to take that article with a grain of salt.
There is so much philosophical clap trap through it and so much bs assumption, I cannot take a thing from it. He may have something - and I would probably like to discuss things with him - but really????????/
Examples
"It is not 2008.
Gold's price is not driven by industrial demand." ----------- good points - but from here on in - downhill all the way imo
"With regards to fact number 1, Doug Short's Big Four Indicators chart does an excellent job visually representing the improvements in the economy since 2008."
Arrh ------------ ok if it were true --------- but is the American economy in a better state than 2008? -- has it been getting better? Really?
Ok, if you want to argue improvements from 2008 ------------------ why show us graphs from 2009? Hello! a little cherry picking graphing going on here at a guess.
To balance the figures --------------- can we see a graphical represent of USA debt and also USA interest owing on that rising debt please?
Can we see a graph on the interest on that debt with some what if's on different interest rate rises ---------- you know - those rises that happen when your economy picks up - like you are suggesting it is.
Those same interest rate rises that will smash the USA into oblivion if they go up even just a few points.
Next.
"If humans were to get over their fascination with gold, the technological use is all that would be left to drive demand, of which there is ample supply for."
Hello Houston, we have a problem --------------- why in the name of God would you write crap like that in an article? Are humans going to get over their 'fascination' with gold - is that going to happen in our lifetimes?
Is it possible to throw out Millennia ---------------- yes, it is a big word MILLENNIA ------------ thousands of years of culture ------------ are they going to change that?
What a waste of ink.
It is like saying if humans got over their yearning for food -- there would be no need for food shortages!!!!!!! What a wank.
Next
" Even adamant gold bugs would agree that the only reason they hold gold is to one day exchange it for food, clothing and shelter. Ideally more food, clothing and shelter in the future than what they could get with gold today."
Got that one mostly correct - except that most 'adamant' gold bugs know that gold is a store of value - a preserver of purchasing power - no more no less -- to exchange for more of the same at some time in future is to be a speculator or an investor or a gambler ---------------- gold is not for that - gold is to preserve purchasing power.
Next ------------ this is a loo loo
"Taking the long term view first, I've compiled the data on the S&P500 to gold ratio dating from December 29th, 1978 to May 17th, 2013. The S&P500 is made up of companies that provide food, clothing and shelter acting as a useful proxy,"
That is the biggest load of crap I have read in a while.
A 6 year old kid knows that no stock price or no stock index price has any relevance at all to a few things ------- some of which are ------- the price of the good or service that that company is or index measures and has absolutely no bearing on the health of the said companies or markets.
Useful proxy, my bum ------------- dunny paper is more useful.
Next
"First, the recent run-up in gold prices puts to shame the run up in the 1980s, both in terms of nominal increase and duration of the run-up.
Second, during Alan Greenspan's tenure from 1987 to 2006, he essentially adopted a gold standard, although not explicitly. If he had of kept with it by raising interest rates faster in 2004, or not kept interest rates so low for so long from 2002 to 2004, gold may not have broken out of its range and the size of the housing market collapse wouldn't have been as catastrophic."
Readers might want to spend a nanosecond or two thinking through this lot -------- from an author who suggests selling gold because it is still expensive??
He says if Greenspan had kept with it by raising interest rates then gold may have not broken out of its range........................... fine.
So, if we raise interest rates this time, then we can contain gold? Yep, that is I guess what he is saying ----------------
But, and a big but here ------------------- the US CANNOT raise interest rates much without cutting their throat from ear to ear ----------- RAISE AND DIE - or keep them low - so if low is the go ------------------------ then our author should be arguing???????????????????? think about it.
Next
"Finally, and most importantly, gold in terms of what it can be exchanged for is still well above its long term average. The S&P500/Gold Ratio's historical average is 1.62, and it is currently at 1.22 even after the 17% increase in the S&P500 this year. Of course, this can be corrected in two ways, with either the S&P500 rallying or gold falling, both of which do not support a long gold investment thesis."
Well, if you want to get all historic about it ---- we have far more long term measures of gold and indeed silver way way before the S&P was even thought of let alone invented.
Lets just look at one of them --------------- A Gold Sovereign ------------ for centuries 1 little gold sovereign has been able for most of its life to provide basic needs of a family of 4 for 1 week.
Simple, elegant and pretty bullet proof.
So ---------- today, right now 1 Gold sovereign is worth somewhere between $340 and $375 (Aussie) --- depending on whether or not you are buying or selliing.
Work it out yourself - or better still ask the woman in the house (assuming she shops) ------------
Could an average family of 4 basically exist on $375 per week?
Well, could they?
Does it seem overpriced now?
Lets get real here folks ------------ that is one of the oldest measurements around ---------- stuff the S&P -- the S&P is an engineered index bolstered by bullshit monetary policy that has basically distorted the entire planet.
The basic needs of a family of 4 haven't changed one zot in centuries ----------- shelter, food, clothing, warmth etc. etc.
It is firmly my opinion - that the average family trying to live on $375 for one week today would in fact be on the bones of their arse.
This article makes very little sense to me at all.
Have a great day all
Gazza
MyNamesNotBen
New Member
Ronnie 666 said:
35% since 2008?? source?
actually you could be right http://www.forbes.com/sites/charleskadlec/2012/03/19/the-rising-price-of-the-falling-dollar/
I guess 2008 was nearly 7 years ago.
Actually no. http://www.usinflationcalculator.com says inflation is 8% since 2008.
I dont know what to believe
Silver2012
New Member
wow you completely crushed that article. I'd love to hear his response. 
Ummm I think this is where they get itMyNamesNotBen said:
Historical
(ozGold) 1/20 (USD) = A
(ozGold) 1/1386 (USD) = B
B/A X 100 = 98.55
2008
(ozGold) 1/680 (USD) = A
(ozGold) 1/1386 (USD) = B
B/A X 100 = 49.06
My math / not my reasoning as I do not believe gold to be stationary
MyNamesNotBen said:
This may be the officially published number - and I'm sure it is such. What this doesn't take into account is the meddling done to the CPI basket over these years to manipulate the true rate of inflation.
More information here: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
I just read the title and laughed!
It may drop further silver may drop more
Big up moves after that perhaps, time will tell.
It may drop further silver may drop more
Big up moves after that perhaps, time will tell.