SDE's Month On Month Analysis for the Whole of 2012

SilverDollarEconomy

SilverDollarEconomy

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SDE's Month On Month Analysis for 2012

Disclaimer: Take note I'm not a financial advisor. This information is being displayed for educational purposes only. Use of this information is NOT recommended to aid in the decision making process for financial decisions.

Hi All,

Not that I'm going to be right in all cases but with the backing of nearly 30 years of trading data on a daily basis starting from 1984 here is what I have seen so far and what I think will happen for the rest of 2012 as far as overall prices are concerned in the silver market.

First of all let me clearly state that I'm not going to give actual prices but the % chances for an up or down shift in spot prices from the begging to the end of each month as listed by the London Metals Exchange.

Although easy to show after the fact as the months have passed, here is what I had charted for the earlier months of the year.

January 2012 Start Price: $28.78 USD
January 2012 Projection Chances: Up 62% Down 38%
January 2012 Actual Finish Price: $33.60 USD

February 2012 Start Price: $33.80 USD
February 2012 Projection Chances: Up 48% Down 52%
February 2012 Actual Finish Price: $37.23 USD

March 2012 Start Price: $34.58 USD
March 2012 Projection Chances: Up 48% Down 52%
March 2012 Actual Finish Price: $32.43 USD

April 2012 Start Price: $32.42 USD
April 2012 Projection Chances: Up 41% Down 59%
April 2012 Actual Finish Price: $31.20 USD

In lou of not having any set figures of actual prices in the future months, here is the % chance of an increase or decrease over the rest of the year, by month, based on data from the past as outlined above.

May 2012 Projection Chances: Up 57% Down 43%

June 2012 Projection Chances: Up 35% Down 65%

July 2012 Projection Chances: Up 50% Down 50%

August 2012 Projection Chances: Up 50% Down 50%

September 2012 Projection Chances: Up 61% Down 39%

October 2012 Projection Chances: Up 46% Down 54%

November 2012 Projection Chances: Up 43% Down 57%

December 2012 Projection Chances: Up 43% Down 57%

Note it seems to be more accurate in the chance of being closer to the mark if any one % is below 45% or above 55%

So let's wait and see how well the past can help us predict the future.
 
Jul & Aug 50/50 :lol:
Does that really count as a 'prediction/projection' ? ;)
 
adze67 said:
Jul & Aug 50/50 :lol:
Does that really count as a 'prediction/projection' ? ;)
Click to expand...

Just what the data leads to with the input form nearly 30 years...

What it is saying obviously is that over the last 30 year it has been up 50% of the time and Down the other 50% during these months, so guess it could go either way lol.

As the months break and I get more data I'll update the information.
 
Ok... So here is what was predicted for May 2012 based on the last 30 years of data

May 2012 Projection Chances: Up 57% Down 43%

May 1st 2012 Start Price: $30.78 USD

And here is how we actually finished

May 2012 Start Price: $30.78 USD

May 2012 Projection Chances: Up 57% Down 43%

May 2012 Actual Finish Price: $28.10 USD

So as you can see over the month of May 2012 the long trend charts here did not help us make any money on the investments we already held, but certainly allowed for us to purchase at lower prices by the end of the month to take advantage of a lower overall cost average.

Maybe June 2012 will smile on us a little more as a reversal takes place and prices again begin to climb

But... The long term charts have this to say over the last 30 years

June 2012 Start Price: $27.38 USD

June 2012 Projection Chances: Up 35% Down 65%

So if the prices do go down again, as the charts surmise, it will be time to buy again, but don't hold your breath as so far this year the long range charts have only been 50/50 in the right range and with all the trouble in Europe and the USA right now we may just see both Silver and Gold explode to the upside defying the charts yet again...
 
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