RMS - RAMELIUS RESOURCES

37.5c now in first hr of trading. Up 10%

HALF YEAR PROFIT GUIDANCE & FORWARD GOLD SALES

Profit guidance for six months to 31 December 2015 of A$28.7 million
Additional forward gold sales of 60,000 ounces at a forward price of A$1,600/oz

Half Year Profit Guidance FY2016

The Directors of Ramelius Resources Limited (ASX: "RMS") are pleased to advise that
the Company is expected to report a half year pre-tax profit for the six months to 31
December 2015 of A$28.7 million. Gross margin generated from operations for the half
year is expected to reflect a surplus of A$25.5 million, an improvement of 231% from the
A$7.7 million surplus in the previous corresponding period.

The Company has forward sold an additional 60,000 ounces of gold at a flat forward
price of A$1,600 per ounce. The gold price achieved enables Ramelius to secure a solid
margin at a time of high price volatility. Total forward gold sales now represents ~50% of
production compared to ~40% previously and extends over 2 years to December 2017.
 
Yeah, another great move. When are they going to pause.

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Good to see this one aswell heading in an upwards trend after a few years, positive management at the moment......time will tell:)
 
I've been getting an itchy trigger finger to take some profits on recent purchases but have also been looking at RMS underperforming relative to them so I decided to bail out of RMS today. I might regret it if gold finally breaks through 1300 without a significant pull back. It could break out of its current consolidation and have a good move up but I don't think the market has been overly impressed with announcements in recent months.
 
Been reading posters elsewhere, doing my own fuzzy thinking and this does look like value albeit with many of the risks of running a gold mine. Ramelius (RMS) has a few gold mines and two plants now actually, but with average current mine reserves for about 4 years production @ 200k ozs p.a. Leverage is there in the resources that could be converted to reserves though if you're a believer in the future gold price.

Since the current M.D, Mark Zeptna, has been there (commenced June 2014) RMS has been profitable and cashflow per share has been increasing. The M.D is a mining engineer and graduate of W.A school of mines.

Since acquiring Edna May mine and plant 2 months ago from Evolution Mining (EVN) Ramelius has improved mining performance of E.M and predicts maximum asic of A$1200 an oz fy18. Believe it is now diamond drilling below the current known Edna May mineralisation underground while also assessing an expansion of the pit.

Also exploration potential around Mt Magnet mine, e.g below the operating Shannon pit and u/g at Water Tank Hill refurbished mine. Exploration potential in QLD at Yandan and in Nevada (U.S) via farm-in to a Newmont tenement.

If I assume the book value of Edna May as $90m (RMS paying $40 cash up front + $50m contingent royalties post purchase). And assume the M.D is correct in predicting $100m net cash/bullion balance by end fy18. That's $190m right there. Throw in Mt Magnet with its minimum 4 years of reserves at 100k ozs production p.a. The exploration chances mentioned. Market cap at close Friday was $174m
 
Bought 10,000 of these @ 34c today. One of the dodgiest charts I have ever bought looking at the break of 35c. Just thinking there might be some value there and the stock has some interesting supporters elsewhere. Not a high conviction buy for me though because of the weak chart.

4 year weekly
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Weekly chart's gone bullish imo. 'One White Soldier' wekly candle last week - not exactly, but close enough for me, probably has another name that I'm not aware of. Gap up white candle this week adding confirmation. Good vibes.

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Realised that the above RMS chart probably qualifies as a 'bullish kicking' pattern.This combined with the rapid reentry into the resistance/support zone after the breakdown is enough by itself to make me think an important low has been made at 33c. Daily moves though might present a cheaper opportunity than the last close @ 38.5

Moreover the fundamentals look attractive to anyone optimistic for the $A Gold price:
RMS has had three successive profitable years under the current M.D and a fourth will follow.
No debt, substantial cash in bank and building by the month.
More than replacing mined reserves and has strong in/near mines exploration program.
Should be a 200oz producer in fy2019 with two active mining projects.
The ROE was 10.4% in fy17 but 16.1% averaged over the last three years, book value and NTA is 32c, price at last close was 38.5c.
 
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Agree, RMS is one of the gold producers worth watching. Will be interesting to see how they go with Edna May mine. It might get a bit more attention with RMS then what it did with EVN (was EVNs lowest margin mine).

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2018 RECORD PRODUCTION BY RAMELIUS – DECEMBER January 2018

Ramelius Resources Limited (ASX: RMS) is pleased to advise that it has exceeded the guidance range and produced record gold production of 58,012 ounces in the December 2017 Quarter, from the Company’s operations in Western Australia. A brief update on operational, development and corporate activities follow.

OPERATIONS
 Group Quarterly production of 58,012 ounces (Guidance: 51-55,000 ounces) o Mt Magnet contribution of 23,352 ounces o Vivien contribution of 13,283 ounces; and o Edna May’s first contribution to the Group of 21,377 ounces  AISC are being finalised but expected to be below guidance (A$1,250/oz)

DEVELOPMENT
 Mt Magnet (WA) o Water Tank Hill underground – stoping activities now producing high grade ore o Initial development at Milky Way, Stellar/Stellar West largely complete with ore being delivered to the Mt Magnet Processing Plant o Development options for Shannon being investigated  Edna May (WA) – Stage 1 decline development work complete with underground diamond drilling commenced and ongoing at the end of the Quarter

EXPLORATION
 Shannon (WA) – step out RC and diamond drilling beyond the Mineral Resource. Potential to expand resource to be assessed when results are received  Nevada (USA) – results awaited from RC drilling at the Jupiter JV project

CORPORATE
 Cash and gold on hand was A$61.8M at end of Quarter (Sept 2017 Qtr: A$96.1M)
 Balance of $38.0M paid for the acquisition of Edna May Operations from Evolution Mining Ltd  A$13.2M expenditure on capital development in the Quarter at; o Milky Way open pit (Mt Magnet) - A$2.5M o Stellar & Stellar West open pits (Mt Magnet) - A$4.6M o Edna May underground development/drilling - A$2.3M o Exploration - A$3.8M  At 31 December 2017, forward gold sales consisted of 142,500 ounces of gold at an average price of A$1,713/oz over the period to October 2019

Ramelius Managing Director, Mark Zeptner today said: “I am delighted to provide this update showing that Ramelius has attained our targeted annualised production rate of over 200,000 ounces. This record quarter exceeded guidance due to the hard work and focus by our operations teams across our three sites, including the newly acquired Edna May gold mine. I look forward to continuing this positive trend and solidifying our position as a growing mid-tier gold producer.”
 
Added 5,000 RMS @ 42.5 on value grounds - my fallible perception of that of course.

Robust average ROE over past 3 years of 16%, 3 years being the tenure of current M.D.
Price to Book (P/B) of 1.35, which is cheap itself, but I did a calc of near term Enterprise Value to Book (EV/B) which takes into account zero debt and M.D assertion that RMS will hold at least $100m cash by end June 2018.
I get forward EV/B = 0.78 for a 200koz p.a proven gold producer! That's with book at only .32, but will actually be higher at end June 2018 and ratio will be even better.
Price to Earnings P/E of 13 will come down* after FY18 results as they will have over 6 months of extra production from Edna May mine which was procured with cash and avoided share dilution.
* assumes static share price of 43c

Punt remains that Edna May will continue to perform, pretty sanguine about that myself, and RMS will find enough ozs to more than replace depletion, that also seems a reasonable bet.

Chart could conceivably correct to the breakout level around 40c, but for mine, I like the appearance of value in RMS in the context of a gold bull market (my take)
 
High volume gap up 'Marubozu' candlestick out of a raggedy flag = bull signal.
'Golden Cross' (50 dma crossing 200 dma) approacheth.
Still trading at less than 1.5 price to book value and price to NTA value at today's close.
Caution: brief pullback still possible in a bullish context.
Dec Qtrly appeared Jan 31 in 2017. Announced performance for month of December should be critical for sentiment.

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Just added 5,000 RMS @ 41.5c

While I did allow for a pullback from the earlier bullish daily move, the strength of the reversal has upset my expectations.

December Quarterly came out yesterday and overall result was good, with production from two mines exceeding an annualised rate of 200kozs.
Averaged AISC across the two mines came in under guidance at $1,146/oz, but Edna May mine's AISC was A$1,298/oz, and disappointingly guidance for Edna May mine in March Quarter is $1,300/oz
 
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9 April 2018

RECORD GOLD PRODUCTION FOR RAMELIUS MARCH 2018 QUARTER

Ramelius Resources Limited (ASX: RMS) is pleased to advise that it has exceeded the guidance range and produced record gold production of 58,671 ounces in the March 2018 Quarter from the Company’s operations in Western Australia. A brief update on operational, development and corporate activities follows.

OPERATIONS
• Group Quarterly production of 58,671 ounces (Guidance: 54-58,000 ounces);

o Mt Magnet contribution of 20,596 ounces;
o Vivien contribution of 13,792 ounces; and
o Edna May contribution of 24,283 ounces

• YTD Group production of 149,833 ounces (YTD Guidance: 133-145,000 ounces)
• On track for full year FY2018 Guidance of 200-210,000 ounces

DEVELOPMENT
• Pre-strip development at Milky Way, Stellar/Stellar West now complete
• Commencement of the pre-strip of the Shannon open pit, ahead of a likely underground project currently undergoing mine design work

CORPORATE
• Cash and gold on hand was A$75.4M at end of Quarter (Dec 2017 Qtr: A$61.8M)
• A$6.5M expenditure on capital development during the Quarter at;

o Shannon open pit - A$2.5M o Exploration (Mt Magnet & greenfields) - A$2.2M
o Exploration (Edna May) - A$1.8M

• At 31 March 2018, forward gold sales consisted of 149,500 ounces of gold at an average price of A$1,708/oz over the period to October 2019

Ramelius Managing Director, Mark Zeptner today said: “We are extremely pleased to see the operations teams back up last Quarter’s record production with another benchmark Quarter, to consolidate Ramelius at a production run-rate in excess of 200,000 ounces of gold per annum. It was particularly encouraging to see production growth from our recently acquired Edna May operation, where we are looking at potentially large increases to the current ore reserve position by the middle of the calendar year. Of course, this is not forgetting the Mt Magnet/Vivien business unit which has shown itself to be a reliable producer also with plenty of high grade underground potential recently unearthed at Mt Magnet.” l

RMS 2 yr weekly chart
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Exuberant move by RMS where the week ended on its high - full white or 'Marubozu' candlestick - they don't get better. Volume just firm suggesting to me unenthusiastic supply.
Moving averages are 40 and 10 week - approximating 50 and 200 daily moving averages.
Added 5,000 @ 53c prior week and would welcome a good correction to add a few more.
Still have confidence in management of this miner.

RMS Weekly 3 YR
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