Richard Russell - Scary gold correction due.

If gold will dip low, very low, it will rise up again after a while and then it might climb a lot higher than ever before during its entire history.

When I first started speculating about a possible "gold crash" late last year (it was approximately in October, if I remember that right), some guys here almost stoned me for my affirmations and...

BEHOLD: it's happening...

Gold is dipping! I'm afraid I was right!

If only we could pick the bottom: how low will it fall?

Saxo Bank was talking about 1,200 $ levels even... Not sure about that one. I've heard even scarier scenarios than that.

If it's really that scary, some of us should go camping somewhere and tell Hitchcockian scary gold crash stories around a campfire like some silly teenagers... Ha ha ha :P

Does anyone have any rational approximation to how low it could go during this spring? I'm only interested in spring for now.
 
How low can it go?

Well, who sets the price?

And where is the demand? Does institutional demand outweigh private demand? Is this artificial suppression of price, or a natural market phenomenon?

So many opinions...
 
Dogmatix said:
How low can it go?

Well, who sets the price?

And where is the demand? Does institutional demand outweigh private demand? Is this artificial suppression of price, or a natural market phenomenon?

So many opinions...
Click to expand...
Still plenty of fear around so I'd say there are still more sellers around.
 
Dogmatix said:
How low can it go?

Well, who sets the price?

And where is the demand? Does institutional demand outweigh private demand? Is this artificial suppression of price, or a natural market phenomenon?

So many opinions...
Click to expand...

The demand thing is weird. Certainly physical demand has declined. And it's ETFs and only national bank purchases are still keeping it alive.

Isn't gold another paper bubble? Thinking of all that "paper gold" inflating the market?

I'm thinking: what if it drops down to let's say 1200 $ or worse and doesn't even come near this high for 20 years? :|
 
TreasureHunter said:
Dogmatix said:
How low can it go?

Well, who sets the price?

And where is the demand? Does institutional demand outweigh private demand? Is this artificial suppression of price, or a natural market phenomenon?

So many opinions...
Click to expand...

The demand thing is weird. Certainly physical demand has declined. And it's ETFs and only national bank purchases are still keeping it alive.

Isn't gold another paper bubble? Thinking of all that "paper gold" inflating the market?

I'm thinking: what if it drops down to let's say 1200 $ or worse and doesn't even come near this high for 20 years? :|
Click to expand...

A fair opinion of course, although I think we might be polar opposites.

I say physical demand has increased significantly - just not necessarily through ma and pa investors.

I'm wondering how long gold can trade at such a discount before reality sets in and it goes nuts.

I think whoever is playing this game is losing tonnes of physical, and is playing it that way for a good reason - and that reason involves sacrificing their gold holdings to achieve other goals. A game that cannot be played for the long-term.
 
Dogmatix said:
I think whoever is playing this game is losing tonnes of physical, and is playing it that way for a good reason - and that reason involves sacrificing their gold holdings to achieve other goals. A game that cannot be played for the long-term.
Click to expand...

+467

It's a battle between keeping 'value' (whatever that means to the masses thesedays), whilst equity markets are just bursting to head upwards mainly due to this new sense of 'optimism' (I think you & I call that 'stupidity') based on a realisation that QE1,2,3 ad infinitum must be balanced by something slightly less esoteric than gold or silver when it comes to perceived 'value' of those equity markets. (I think you & I would call that one dodgy investment being traded for another.) In which case, it's probably not a bad thing that pm's are out of the equation at this point as the Emerald City of Greenback erodes... China & India are buying gold & silver by the shedload... and probably will continue to do so right up to the point where the Yuan overtakes the US$ as primary reserve currency.

That's my ha'penny's worth anyhow...
 
If gold drops to say $1,300, so many people out there have become interested in (physical) gold who would jump in and buy gold. that would surely push prices up again.
 
If the drop drives demand then you will see it shoot up again.
If it drops and investors are seeking to put cash elsewhere, then it will stagnate for a while.
I dont think it will last long, am with valuecreator on this, grab going on.
 
jazzy988 said:
If gold drops to say $1,300, so many people out there have become interested in (physical) gold who would jump in and buy gold. that would surely push prices up again.
Click to expand...

Right... but some people might panic now and sell their holdings. Others, by looking at the charts might not trust gold anymore seeing the fluctuations.

If gold drops now "too deep", then the bullion sellers will have a lot of explaining to do - regarding why gold is "good on the long term". People don't like sharp fluctuations too much.

Of course, I still believe in gold and silver on the long term, exactly because I know that the global economy is sliding lower and lower and, fiat has no future.

I think we might see a sharp correction and that will be followed by a sharp spike upward.
 
Bullion dealers do not control the market, there is no explaining to do, they dont put a gun to your head and make you buy, whatever the position is the investor holds is done of their own accord.
Metals are a long term investment, if people cant handle sharp fluctuations then maybe their portfolio needs to be changed.
 
I can see a story in the MSM:

SMSFs squander millions

Members of SMSF's who have invested in gold bullions have seen the value of their investment decline by over 7% over the past 12 months.

Industry superfund chiefs have cited this as an example of why the Government is investigating tightening SMSF legislation in order to restrict the investment options available to SMSF Trustees.

"Mum and dad investors lack the training and the experience in managing their retirement savings. We (Fund managers) have long argued that retail superfunds should be the sole superannuation providers, and these results vindicate our position.

"These losses that SMSF's are facing as a result of the fall in the gold price translate into higher costs for the taxpayer and less tax revenue.

"We welcome any move from the Government to intervene in the debacle that is SMSF and support any moves to make Autralian's retirement savings more secure, more professionally managed and transparent."
Click to expand...

^^^^ Unfortunately it's possible. :(
 
mmm....shiney! said:
I can see a story in the MSM:

SMSFs squander millions

Members of SMSF's who have invested in gold bullions have seen the value of their investment decline by over 7% over the past 12 months.

Industry superfund chiefs have cited this as an example of why the Government is investigating tightening SMSF legislation in order to restrict the investment options available to SMSF Trustees.

"Mum and dad investors lack the training and the experience in managing their retirement savings. We (Fund managers) have long argued that retail superfunds should be the sole superannuation providers, and these results vindicate our position.

"These losses that SMSF's are facing as a result of the fall in the gold price translate into higher costs for the taxpayer and less tax revenue.

"We welcome any move from the Government to intervene in the debacle that is SMSF and support any moves to make Autralian's retirement savings more secure, more professionally managed and transparent."
Click to expand...

^^^^ Unfortunately it's possible. :(
Click to expand...


Geez, perfect timing. People are going to look at the recent charts after reading this article and think, 'There's no way I'm touching gold!'.
 
Argent47 said:
Geez, perfect timing. People are going to look at the recent charts after reading this article and think, 'There's no way I'm touching gold!'.
Click to expand...

Good, then it's not a bubble ;)

Seriously, who cares what mum and dad investors do?

If the gold market was ruled by them it'd probably be $100 per oz
 
iceblue said:
Dont know him, aint read the article and wont.
Correction to between $1300-$1400 per oz, will be short lived so jump on when you can.
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This scared a few people, I predicted this in feb.
In about 10 weeks or so, the upward trend will again come.
Silver at $62.00????
 
iceblue said:
Dont know him, aint read the article and wont.
Correction to between $1300-$1400 per oz, will be short lived so jump on when you can.
Click to expand...

So far, you have picked it like a dirty nose! Good call.
 
Yes, when I have a shot, I do ok. Got some PMs that I will address here.
I dont listen to any experts, throw a name and i dont know who you speak of, if I do, I have never listened to them or read their book.
I dont read charts, data or anything that is published concerning precious metals. Where do I see gold in 2015? UP from where it is now.
I can tell you one thing, as a stacker I like gold, silver is my toy - my play thing, but not for much longer.
While gold will again see around $1700.00 shortly, it is silver that is going to be the big mover.
I see silver going to play catch up to its real price. Its real value.
I see $62 at tops fluctuating from $50+, we will see bigger daily moves.
Buy now while its cheap, the upwards trend will start in around 10 weeks give or take.
Those waiting for a dip below $20, wont happen.
Of course Gold will move, but silver will be the one to watch.
 
iceblue said:
......
I dont listen to any experts, throw a name and i dont know who you speak of, if I do, I have never listened to them or read their book.
I dont read charts, data or anything that is published concerning precious metals.......
Click to expand...


That being the case, what counsel do you base your assertions on?
 
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