Richard Russell - Scary gold correction due.
- Thread starter JulieW
- Start date
Thanks.
A bit too vague to be of much use though. I wouldn't mind holding off some gold purchases if there was a time frame for the big clean out but there's not much to go on.
Other than being the 'Godfather of Newsletters' (That's a good thing, right?) what is this Richard Russell like?
A bit too vague to be of much use though. I wouldn't mind holding off some gold purchases if there was a time frame for the big clean out but there's not much to go on.
Other than being the 'Godfather of Newsletters' (That's a good thing, right?) what is this Richard Russell like?
the professional chart painters are making everybody look like fools right now, even old man Russell.
paper price is becoming more irrelevant by the day.
paper price is becoming more irrelevant by the day.
Other quotes from Richard Russell
Previous Jim Sinclair commentary from earlier in the week. You can see he expects a big manipulation to the down-side, followed by the big money going long.
Could this be the big one?
Previous Jim Sinclair commentary from earlier in the week. You can see he expects a big manipulation to the down-side, followed by the big money going long.
Could this be the big one?
Actually, does anyone know of any correlation with G20 meetings and market crashes?
It's all just throwing darts at a dartboard until one of the so called "experts" nails the bullseye and is proclaimed the golden profit forgetting the countless false predictions prior to it. I just take it one day at a time, stacking and collecting shiney things like some horny bower-bird studying the various economic indictators with a long-term view of somtime prior to 2017
I'd be happy to mow and whipper-snip that garden 
Temptation is to defer to whatever Richard Russell says, but he's not the Pope and has been telling his subscribers to get the hell out of the stockmarket for over a year. That's at the least a cyclical bull market in stocks that his followers have missed out on - from roughly 10280 on the Dow in Oct 2011 to 13,983 currently; and those stocks have been paying dividends far in excess of what a portfolio of gold and cash have paid in the States. Even if he is eventually vindicated he will have been very premature.
His deserved reputation is built on some heroic secular market calls that were spot on. That and a lively, long lived and cheap newsletter. Doesn't follow that his shorter term calls are always right.
It's a big call to make on the basis of one small daily pattern (a pennant) on the proxy GLD chart when a clear pennant with a dropout candle do not appear on the Gold chart, Note also the GLD chart very frequently produces gaps while the Gold chart does not.
The recent action is nasty, the close last night is the lowest close in 6 months. But on the positive side - recent lows have not been exceeded yet, the 50 dma has not crossed below the 200 dma yet, and Platinum is still behaving bullishly. So I'm not convinced until US$1625 goes.
His deserved reputation is built on some heroic secular market calls that were spot on. That and a lively, long lived and cheap newsletter. Doesn't follow that his shorter term calls are always right.
It's a big call to make on the basis of one small daily pattern (a pennant) on the proxy GLD chart when a clear pennant with a dropout candle do not appear on the Gold chart, Note also the GLD chart very frequently produces gaps while the Gold chart does not.
The recent action is nasty, the close last night is the lowest close in 6 months. But on the positive side - recent lows have not been exceeded yet, the 50 dma has not crossed below the 200 dma yet, and Platinum is still behaving bullishly. So I'm not convinced until US$1625 goes.
I have said a few times before already......... Both metals 'may' drop significantly due to the recent debt ceiling suspension and soon to be none at all ceiling..... The pressure to buy pm's as a safe haven will fall DRAMATICALLY.... think about it! Prepare to stack the most during the next 4 years while prices are subdued!
I was thinking the same today. My guess is that they said they are going to discuss clamping down on currency manipulation/de valuing. Some people may view this as "oh no, they are going to stop printing money". I dont think anything of value regarding currency manipulation will come out of the meeting. Just a lot of shoulder rubbing, talking shite and patting each other on the back.Gino said:
^ now that's just a tad cynical Loving.
Cynical maybe, but on the money. It's just China bashing.
Cynical maybe, but on the money. It's just China bashing.
As always I look at the fundamentals, World reserve currency FUBAR ?: Tick, Gold and Silver undervalued ?: Tick , Everything Else such as the mark to market of shares of the Dow and the S & P at dizzy heights despite the underlying risk ? : Tick, A current currency war :Tick ..... There really is no way out for the western global economy and there really is no other economy for those of us who exist in it unless we hedge against our own domestic currency with the age old tools of doing so.
It is a Matrix scenario pure and simple, there is no way out for those of us who distrust fiat except for Gold and Silver. As it stands the whole western economy is a bloated mirage which is about to pop. The underlying fundamental reality is a no brainer. Printing more of the same to throw at the underlying problem will not work despite the current illusion. GIGO, the proof is already there in the pudding with the latest out of the Euro country's . Every measure of the best and brightest Banksters has failed to deliver for them. Any acceleration of intervention will only exacerbate the current problems and lead to even more pain for the underlying source of payments and will only serve to increase the final total that will need to be paid in the end. The final accounting is just around the corner and no amount of market manipulation will avoid the outcome.
In the end the source of repayment will not stand for the price being asked and will either default or revolt against those asking, you can only stretch things so far. The price of dignity for many has already been breached and a tipping point is fast approaching for the majority of the western people. A trickle of discontent with the status quo is easily converted to a stream or a torrent. History abounds with such examples and whether it be instigated from within or manipulated from without, it is clear that a burden that becomes intolerable by the many often overwhelms and overcomes the interests of a few.
Frugality is heading close to home for everyone else in the western world quite soon, it is the latest and greatest formula for ensuring that the bankanista receive their bonuses. Australia has very little left to poach except for super.
It is a Matrix scenario pure and simple, there is no way out for those of us who distrust fiat except for Gold and Silver. As it stands the whole western economy is a bloated mirage which is about to pop. The underlying fundamental reality is a no brainer. Printing more of the same to throw at the underlying problem will not work despite the current illusion. GIGO, the proof is already there in the pudding with the latest out of the Euro country's . Every measure of the best and brightest Banksters has failed to deliver for them. Any acceleration of intervention will only exacerbate the current problems and lead to even more pain for the underlying source of payments and will only serve to increase the final total that will need to be paid in the end. The final accounting is just around the corner and no amount of market manipulation will avoid the outcome.
In the end the source of repayment will not stand for the price being asked and will either default or revolt against those asking, you can only stretch things so far. The price of dignity for many has already been breached and a tipping point is fast approaching for the majority of the western people. A trickle of discontent with the status quo is easily converted to a stream or a torrent. History abounds with such examples and whether it be instigated from within or manipulated from without, it is clear that a burden that becomes intolerable by the many often overwhelms and overcomes the interests of a few.
Frugality is heading close to home for everyone else in the western world quite soon, it is the latest and greatest formula for ensuring that the bankanista receive their bonuses. Australia has very little left to poach except for super.
There went US$1625 pretty decisively I guess. Rack up another point for R Russell.
But what does he mean exactly - how far does he expect it to fall here and how long will it use up? I found this 50 year old US$ Gold chart with a handy inflation adjustment added (red line). You can refer back to the 70's period. How closely is he drawing a parallel?
Is gold going to halve its peak of 1900 = 950? That's what happened back in the 70s Gold bull.
The downtrend phase from 1975 took about 20 months. Gold's downtrend today has taken up about 18 months, but only if it makes a lower low than the ~1530 low made in May 2012. Otherwise, if the correction low is completed, then the downtrend phase this time only lasted about 9 months.
They're just very different looking charts. I think he'd be more specific if he had a clear idea.
Maybe he's referring to that blip you can see mid to late 1978. That blip is a 20% decline from the high. So the comparison today would be a 20% decline from 1800, or less likely 1900. In 1978 the duration of downspike plus rally to break through to new all time highs took less than a year and we've already used up 5 months.
On the whole his comparison is too vague to be helpful so far - for me anyway
Source:http://routine-life-measurements.blogspot.com.au/2011_09_01_archive.html
But what does he mean exactly - how far does he expect it to fall here and how long will it use up? I found this 50 year old US$ Gold chart with a handy inflation adjustment added (red line). You can refer back to the 70's period. How closely is he drawing a parallel?
Is gold going to halve its peak of 1900 = 950? That's what happened back in the 70s Gold bull.
The downtrend phase from 1975 took about 20 months. Gold's downtrend today has taken up about 18 months, but only if it makes a lower low than the ~1530 low made in May 2012. Otherwise, if the correction low is completed, then the downtrend phase this time only lasted about 9 months.
They're just very different looking charts. I think he'd be more specific if he had a clear idea.
Maybe he's referring to that blip you can see mid to late 1978. That blip is a 20% decline from the high. So the comparison today would be a 20% decline from 1800, or less likely 1900. In 1978 the duration of downspike plus rally to break through to new all time highs took less than a year and we've already used up 5 months.
On the whole his comparison is too vague to be helpful so far - for me anyway
Source:http://routine-life-measurements.blogspot.com.au/2011_09_01_archive.html
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
iceblue said:
So, you are expecting that sort of downturn? 1300-1400 $?
When?
What if it touches 1400 $ and I wait wait... for the lower price and then spikes up fast and lose the buying chance? :/
When will be the best moment/price to buy?
I'm curious about your opinions - especially those of you who have years of experience with gold charts...
iceblue
Well-Known Member
I dont read charts. I dont read blogs (except maybe Mr barons now and then), dont do utube, dont listen to any self confessed gold/silver expert. I do not believe iam what you would call experienced!
I use a crystal ball, then consult with my cows.
$1353 - $1356 is the bottom, somewhere around there, over the next 3-12 weeks.
For the permabulls doing long haul wont matter, just a good opportunity to buy more, over the 10 - 20 year time line it will be insignificant.
Picking the right time to buy must come from within, go with your gut feeling.
I use a crystal ball, then consult with my cows.
$1353 - $1356 is the bottom, somewhere around there, over the next 3-12 weeks.
For the permabulls doing long haul wont matter, just a good opportunity to buy more, over the 10 - 20 year time line it will be insignificant.
Picking the right time to buy must come from within, go with your gut feeling.
THINK about it.
