Rabbit Now Officially Decalred "SOLD OUT" By The Mint

[Guest]

Say the 2012 Dragon is a massive success and they get 300k out in the first month (very possible IMHO) - what's to say that 'due to unprecedented market demand we will be running another 500k' won't be the obvious option after the first 300k go out?

Because it's a capped mintage. They're a currency mint, not a reserve bank - they can't run off legal tender coinage wily-nily.

Well that seems contradictory considering the recent PM feedback on this subject :

Reply by the Perth Mint to a question about minting more of the Mouse, Ox and Tiger up to their 300k limits. Pretty much if someone fronts up with a pile of fiat, presses will be turn on it seems.

Ron Currie says:
Hi David M

Welcome to the blog - appreciate your input. In principle we have the ability to strike previous 1oz silver Lunars from Series II only up to a maximum of 300,000 each. We're currently looking at this but the final decision will be dependent on what interest we receive.

Regards

Ron

http://forums.silverstackers.com/post.php?tid=6020&qid=78015

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[rbaggio]

I think he is saying that the 300k mintage for some years hasn't been reached, so they are currently looking at whether they go back and do it for these years, do get it up to 300k retrospectively.

 

[Guest]

I think he is saying that the 300k mintage for some years hasn't been reached, so they are currently looking at whether they go back and do it for these years, do get it up to 300k retrospectively.

OH! Fair enough then. Seems I was mistaken on the assumption.

Still, I ask the question on whether PM has to produce only certain coins each year, or whether they can a broad cap and have the option of mixing and matching?

ie Say they get permission to strike 1 million $1 coins per year. They decide how many will be lunars, kooks and koalas.

Could they possibly say '300k of each' and the last 100k will be restrikes from previous years to meet market demand?

Or is it fixed in that they must strike X number of X coins only?

I don't know the ins and outs of how the mint operates at that level so it's hard to comment.

 

[Big A.D.]

The Perth Mint has to get permission from the Commonwealth Department of the Treasurer to mint anything and they have to state to the Treasury how many they want to make out of what material and with what design on it.

The Treasury then approves (or denies) their application to mint legal tender coins with those stated specifications.

In the case of the 1oz silver Lunars, the Perth Mint gets an allowance to make 300k coins of each design and year date. When they mint the coins is up to them, but they can't make more than 300k coins of each design and year date. Obviously they release them in line with the lunar cycle, but if they don't make 300k in any particular year they can use up their allowance on it later (up to a maximum of 300k coins).

Just assume that they'll hit the maximum 300k coin mintage on all the 1oz coins. If you think demand for silver is going to increase and prices will rise, it follows that the Perth Mint will be able to make and sell 300k coins of each design and year date. 300k coins is still a tiny amount - for comparison, they'll release 3.6 million 1oz Lunar coins over the 12 year cycle which is about what the U.S. mint is churning out every 20 days in ASEs.

 

[bennybbc]

I think the idea is, they will mint upto a max of 300k lunars for each year or less if they don't have the demand. They can mint any year lunar untill the end of the series in 2019 upto that limit, but no more. In other words they will be minting the mouse again because the demand is there and the haven't minted 300k yet, but not the rabbit as this has already reached it's limit of 300k.

You beat me to it BigAD! Umm, yeah what he said!!

 

[Guest]

Okay, thanks for the info gents. Certainly clarifies things for me (and others I'm sure).

I think it's safe to say that from this point on, unless they ramp up the mintage limits on coins, there's virtually no possibility limits won't be hit. Here we are in the 2nd month of the year and they're already hit their limit.

How many silver investors are there in Australia right now?

HA!

 

[Loxmyf]

How many silver investors are there in Australia right now?

HA!

Only those with PM inventory in their SMSFs. The rest of us are just here reminiscing the days before the boating accident.

 

[goldpelican]

There's a similar discussion running on the Perth Mint blog. Here's my response to a post over there about whether these are bullion or numismatic.

I think numismatic bullion is a very apt description - they're being released on a bullion basis with initial wholesale/retail pricing determined on a spot + premium basis, but have numismatic characteristics - high quality, unique annual designs, legal tender status, part of a defined series, with a guaranteed maximum low mintage of 300,000 coins. That might sound high, but think about this - last year the US Mint cranked out 34 million Silver Eagles in 2010.

Looking back to Series I, the design is generally what dictates the numismatic potential of the Lunar coins - the 1oz Dragon is considered the "key" coin of a Series I 1oz bullion set, trading at around $120+, yet it has the highest mintage of 118,000! On the other hand, the poor old Ox can still be had in Melbourne coin shops for ~$12 over spot, yet has the lowest mintage of only 52,000 or so (that's a free tip - it's a sleeper). Similarly, the relatively high mintage Horse (99,000) and Snake (71,000) round out the top 3 in terms of current demand and numismatic prices.

If you want numismatic returns from your bullion, buy the design, not the mintage.

 

[Matthew 26:14]

The 2011 Wildlife Series starting with the Timberwolf has a mintage of 1 million as is being marketed by the Royal Canadian Mint as a collectors series even though they are silver bullion coins. Put simply any coin can have numismatic appeal. It all depends on market forces. Clearly the market has determined a high collectors value on the Lunar coins as opposed to the Maple, ASE which year to year have very limited collectors appeal. Then theres the coins with some collectors appeal like the Kookaburra but it has less of a collectors premium than the Lunars.

 

[Matthew 26:14]

True GP, the numismatic demand for Series 1 in order of prices probably goes like:

1. Dragon
2. Horse
3. Snake
4. Rabbit
5. Tiger
6. Rat
7. Rooster
8. Goat
9. Monkey
10. Dog
11. Ox
12. Pig

You can argue a move up or down of a few but thats basically the prioritized list !